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Trump's withdrawal from Kurdistan is a trap for Erdogan.

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posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 11:02 AM
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Trump's withdrawal from Kurdistan is a trap for Erdogan.


Days after United States announced the withdrawal of troops from Kurdish regions of Northern Syria. Turkey under Erdogan declared an unilateral offensive against the Kurdish forces in Northern Syria. The "betrayal" by the United states on their Kurdish allies was not expected, but it had to happen sooner or later considering the relationship between the two NATO allies(US and Turkey) in the past few years.

Since 1978, Turkey has been in conflict against the PKK, a Kurdish militant group which Turkey believes to be a terrorist organisation. Turkey believes, the very same militant groups operating in Northern Syria are also operating among the YPG and the SDF. Hence they are viewed as a national security threat to the Turkish state. Syrian crisis has also lead to the formation of a minor Kurdish state on the norther part of Syria which has angered the Turks even further. A Kurdish state bordering Turkey is inconceivable for Erdogan. This offensive against the Kurds was only a matter of time. It was bound to happen sooner rather than later.

Last Friday/ 11nth of October. Turkish artillery strike landed 300m of to a US commando outpost. Turkish military being part of NATO would know known precisely the location of US military bases along the Turkish border. Also these US military bases would be marked as NFA - "No fire areas". One can only conclude that these was a deliberate strike, a message to the Americans to leave the area. Any case of "accidental firing" is simply out of the question.


The White-house decision to withdraw from Northern Syria and the global humiliation the US has received over its decision to "betray" the Kurds is unexpected. The US from what I understand operates covertly a lot more than it operates overtly. Which is why i believe there is a bigger game at play here. Americans would never take a decision if it did not benefit them in any way. Erdogan, most likely has been baited by Trump to invade the Kurds. This entire incident seem to be the last stages of a geopolitical chess game that has been going on in the ME for last few years.

Lets look at the bigger picture. Just in the last few months, Saudi's from its very belligerent stance against Iran seems to have suddenly had an Epiphany, recently the Saudi FM had told Sky News that SA wanted to avoid any conflict with Iran. UAE has already pulled out of Yemen. Saudi Military's failure in Yemen and UAE's withdrawal could have forced Saudi's to come to some sort of an agreement with the Iranians.

Erdogan is most likely the elaborate victim of a geopolitical chess game. Turkey has most likely been planning for this invasion for a long time and the Americans were aware of it. It is simply impossible to mobilize for an invasion along the Syrian border and for White-house to be caught off guard. Its possible that the White-house was informed of what was about to happen and secretly gave a green light. Erdogan in his obsession to reform the Ottoman Empire most likely did not see through the US game plan.

A Military conflict is out of the question as the US military has already withdrawn from the immediate area. US has initiated economic sanctions on Turkey. That is in addition to the massive diplomatic hammering it is already receiving. It's unlikely that the Turks will be able to withstand this pressure for too long. Either the Turks will have to withdraw completely from Syria, humiliating Erdogan internationally and domestically. Or be engaged in a prolonged war which will throw Turkey into a quagmire. Both options are bad for Erdogan. Both these options are beneficial for Trump for a number of reasons.


Erdogan has been a constant thorn for the Americans, A NATO ally which has begun increasingly siding with the Russians. Domestically ousting Erdogan and replacing him with a more pro secular and pro West leader would be extremely beneficial for Americans. On the other hand, Erdogan ends up in a prolonged war with the Syrians, Iranians. Trump possibly hopes that either Erodgan will be thrown out, or Iran and its allies will be forced into a prolonged conflict with Turkey.

Russia and Iran, both directly benefits from this. It enables Assad to reunite Syria again as the Kurds won't really have much of a choice to begin with. While Iranians on one hand gets to expand its influence into Syria. Russians gets the chance to be the new heroes of the region. Any deployment of Russian forces into the region will further complicate matters for Turkey. Turkey has already angered the US for its purchase of the S-400. Turkey is unlikely to make any move against the Russians if the they were to deploy along with their SAA allies. Also note, Russia likely still remembers the shooting down of its Su-24 by Turkish fighter Jets.

Russians also want to halt Turkey's exploration of the massive gas reserves of the coast of Cyprus. Russians want to remain the sole energy supplier. Fall of Erdogan after this would ensure Turks will not have the diplomatic muscle to carry out any aggressive moves into gaining control of this gas field near Cyprus


"Russians earlier has a deal with Turkey to build the South Stream. The Russia energy giant GazProm will carry gas from Russia to Turkey, the capacity to hold up to 63 billion cubic meters of gas from one end of the pipe to the other. "

Both the Americans and the Russians gain substantially from the fall of Erdogan. Both these nations are likely to follow up with actions that finally result in the ouster of Erdogan. Hence its my likely conclusion that there is some sort of agreement between the Putin, Trump and Rouhani on how to solve the ME situation permanently and how to deal with a belligerent Turkey.


My own website

Hey folks, i have posted my own analysis on my website and decided to post the same over here.

edit on 15-10-2019 by maddy21 because: (no reason given)




posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 11:06 AM
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Nailed it!
Thank you for the thoughtful analysis.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 11:42 AM
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I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Kurds were a sacrifice in this geopolitical scheme.

You win some, you lose some, at the end of the day, it's all according to plan.

Pros:

Troops are pulled out of harms way.

We stop spending money there.

Cons:

We trash a relationship with a people, the Kurds.

Points:

Trump has indicated that he is willing to help the Kurds financially and weapon supplies.

Quagmire, ala middle east vietnam, best to pull out.

The US Military has pivoted from a Conventional setting of the 80s to an Asymetric one in the 2000s, now, we must re-orient our perspectives to new challenges and higher forms of war for up and coming adversarys.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 11:51 AM
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But
Pretty sure Erdogan won’t go down without a fight
Lil Kim looked like he was on the ropes after Trump put him back on his heels but, it never finished of the dictator
I think their is a sting in the tail of this story

On the up, Trump really does like to move his pieces around and try break these stalemates, not one to sit back.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 11:51 AM
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Thanks thats a great insight to what is happening



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 11:53 AM
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a reply to: Arnie123


It's best to not start a job unless you can do it properly, especially when people die...

It's not just oh well...its how it is. Imagine another world power doing what we do, I wonder the reaction on ats...



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 12:05 PM
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End goal from a uber historic sense would be to have Turkey go to war with Russia and Russia take Instanbul and rename it Putinonople.

This is sort of a joke. Sort of.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 12:32 PM
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a reply to: maddy21

As long as Trump keeps getting millions per year in branding fees for the two Trump towers in Istanbul everything is peachy.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 01:15 PM
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a reply to: maddy21

Abandoning an ally to the enemy. What a clever stratagy!!


www.rawstory.com...


edit on 15-10-2019 by olaru12 because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 01:27 PM
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Got a 404 error on your site link.

www.moonofalabama.org...
Syrian Government Regains Control Over Country's Northeastern Parts

Eight days ago U.S. President Donald Trump gave a green light for another Turkish invasion of Syria. We explained why that move made it inevitable for the Kurds to submit to Damascus and to let the Syrian Arab Army back into northeast Syria:

While the YPG might want to fight off a Turkish invasion they have little chance to succeed. The land is flat and the YPG forces only have light arms.

There is only one solution for them. They will have to call up the Syrian government and ask it to come back into the north east. That would remove the Turkish concerns and would likely prevent further Turkish moves.

After Trump had spoken with the Turkish president Erdogan, the U.S. military removed a few of its forces from some areas near the Turkish border. The Pentagon was still under the false impression that Turkey would limit its invasion to some 5 kilometer in depth. It was obvious, as we wrote, that Turkey wanted far more:

A major goal is to interrupt the M4 highway that runs parallel to the border and allows for troop movements between the east and the west of the Kurdish majority areas. The highway is about 20-30 kilometers from the border.

The M4 road is also one of the major logistical routes for the U.S. troops stationed in the western part.

Syrian Government Regains Control Over Country's Northeastern Parts


edit on 15-10-2019 by CharlesT because: (no reason given)

edit on 15-10-2019 by CharlesT because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 01:28 PM
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a reply to: maddy21

Excellent analysis maddy, though it is not for me to say you are right or wrong, just that it provides thoughtful considerations. You fleshed it out well.

My only disagreement though is that point where you think that Trump has put as much thought into the situation as you have. I don't believe him capable of that much insight on anything. If we are to believe that the US military leaders have condemned this move and were not prepared for it it is also reasonable to assume that this move was an aberrant decision on Trump's part and not part of any overall 5d strategy.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 01:43 PM
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a reply to: olaru12

But Turkey is a NATO member, and they say those allies are terrorists.
All of this is so confusing.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 01:46 PM
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Can't get Assad for so long,

so Erdogan will do for now, Deep State?

Lame.

S&F



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 01:54 PM
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originally posted by: o0oTOPCATo0o
a reply to: olaru12

But Turkey is a NATO member, and they say those allies are terrorists.
All of this is so confusing.


I wonder what our other allies think about this?


edit on 15-10-2019 by olaru12 because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 01:57 PM
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a reply to: odzeandennz

My my...what a short memory you have...a superpower like Russia you mean ? The Soviets fought in Afghanistan for 10 years and then left. Estimates of civilian deaths are from 550 thousand to 2 million...I guess their job was done. And the number of refugees that fled to other countries we dont know.

Do you think the super power is done in Ukraine ? Thet haven't left yet of course, but they clearly didnt finish either. What about Chechnya ? Known as the First and Second Chechnya War, which is misleading since they also battled in the 1800's. One and two took place more recently and they ran again, wonder what people think ?

The Syrian Kurds, one group among so many different Tribes in the middle east with a group in almost every country were completely aware of our short term limited operation in Syria. We provided assistance to help them identify targets and provided advisers and put special op teams embedded with the Kurdish fighters to further help. And of course we gave them weapons.

The Kurds want their own country and have for many decades. I was stationed in Turkey and the were straightforward terrorists during that time. While polite terrorists as in they would plant a bomb, call and warn allowing civilians to get away, didn't stop them from killing policemen and other government officials.

Torn over this one, as the Kurds in many areas have provided help to us. But make no mistake, they do so with their own intentions which are often opposite our own. Turkey does not wish them to gain a strong hold on their border as the Kurds believe it is theirs. The US needs to be careful of what they wish...regime change in Syria means a void and what replaces Assad could be worse.

Look at Iraq. It's a mess after regime change. Time for the middle eastern countries to straighten it out. We should leave yet take a role to help end the endless cycle of war. Turkey was the unwilling recipient of almost 3 million refugees from the Syrian debacle. Cannot blame them for wanting to control their own border, but Erdogan wants to go farther and be a middle eastern influence and leader. We will see what happens



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 02:51 PM
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originally posted by: maddy21
Erdogan in his obsession to reform the Ottoman Empire most likely did not see through the US game plan.



There is currently 3.6 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey.
Turkey has every right to interfere in Syria and create a safe passage for these people so they can return home.
I know many of you Americans are tired of being ridiculed on the international stage by the incompetent orange cheeto but there is really no 4d chess or greater strategy in this. Trump #ed up and Erdogan went from drawing dead to having a royal straight flush.
edit on 15-10-2019 by XCrycek because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 03:05 PM
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The Kurds will end up getting their own country soon 😎

LTS 😎



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 03:09 PM
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a reply to: maddy21

Nice spin but I don't believe it.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 03:23 PM
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originally posted by: maddy21
Since 1978, Turkey has been in conflict against the PKK, a Kurdish militant group which Turkey believes to be a terrorist organisation.

So does the US, as they have it on the Foreign Terrorist Organisations list.



posted on Oct, 15 2019 @ 03:53 PM
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originally posted by: odzeandennz


a reply to: Arnie123


It's best to not start a job unless you can do it properly, especially when people die...

It's not just oh well...its how it is. Imagine another world power doing what we do, I wonder the reaction on ats...

In certain situations, sure. However, geopolitics? That doesn't apply and in some cases, it's for the better.

Reality is, "oh well, it is what it is" because in this case, it happened and IS.

You're naive to the inner workings of the world, stay shielded and bubbled.




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