War: Can China take Russia with 200 million men?

How many again?
You must have numbers..
And who's that man?

I believe that if China invades anybody it will most likely be Japan first. It would be increadibly easy for China to launch a suprise attack on Japan. Imagine that Japans technological achievments were combined with the virtualy unlimited supply of soldiers China has........

[edit on 6-6-2006 by Tiloke]

Originally posted by chinawhite
Warehouses full of them. They paid something like $500million for extra munitions. The problem taiwan faces is that every arms shipment made out of the US has to get passed by congress. They have brought stocks of Aim-120s but cant get them out until fighting actually starts

LOL, all this after you were telling us how crap Russian technology is Guess your AA-12's are pretty crappy as well. Never seen someone contradict himself so mnay times.

Originally posted by chinawhite
Rogue1 or should i say mad scientist.....pathetic

LOL, jeez you're a bright one, you only realsied after I put in teh same locations - I would hardly say I was trying to hard it, many members know I'm the same person Why is it pathetic ? Because I rip apart your arguments with 2 identities, LOL. If you have to resort to this it's obvious you don't have a proverbial leg to stand on.

Originally posted by chinawhite
All you had was that and you used two post?

Originally posted by rogue1
LOL and what technology is this from teh F-35 ?

Well i thought this one would be obvious. DSI intakes

LOL, well gee they must be really high tech then, gawd this is ridiculous.

[edit on 6-6-2006 by rogue1]

After writing about 4000 words my hands are feeling numb.

But dont snip at my argument looking for things you can pick up on, argue all points, ....if you can

all this after you were telling us how crap Russian technology is Guess your AA-12's are pretty crappy as well

It was a comparison between russian technology and the best technology out at the momment. You might have missed my other post in the avaition section about the indian MRCA and MKI program

We are now comparing somthing different. Get with the program kiddo

you only realsied after I put in teh same locations

One is Hai Fong, Guangdong, Southern China
and the other is Haiphong, Guandong Province, China

...... Your spellings still as good as before

And im so interested in your profile. After you said you were answering to the reply i checked your regisation date and then actually found out you were in china and assumed the same person.

well gee they must be really high tech then, gawd this is ridiculous.

Yet i fail to see were i claimed the technology was high tech ?.

Spelling and reading

This was an interesting thread to read.
I have been working in China for several years, we are commodities broker. we sell Various Oils from the middle east, Russia, Venezuela, and Africa into China as well as many other products.

If you have not visited China, i highly recommend it before discussing poor infrastructure, the quality of products, or state of the Military.

The freeways in China support battle tanks and heavy machinery, bridges are reinforced to support extra heavy loads as well.
China does export some poor quality product compared to other nations. But they keep higher quality product for Internal Use.
The state of their military is interesting, we see jets fly overhead ocasionally, they put on a show sometimes. Not on the level of the blue angels, but they are world class pilots. We speak with Military officials, they are as dedicated as any soldiers come. this being said;

China has the worlds largest trade deals in History. Some are with Iran, others with Russia, africa and south america. China is actively BUILDING refineries and fuel processing plants the world over. The USA has not built a refinery in what, 30 years?
There are over 280 Universities under construction in China at this moment. some are small, others will house 50,000 students, all will have 3G communication systems tied to each other, government resources, and the Web.
China is exploring Nuclear Fusion systems along with Europe. China is entering massive trade deals with Russia and Germany. China is on a path that will lead the Nation into the 21st Century, and will probably surpass America as a superpower in the next 15 - 18 years, assuming a 8% annual growth rate.

China will not need to invade Russia, or India, or Taiwan, or Japan. Those Nations are seeking stronger ties with China, because the numbers are all in China's column.

It is the current adminstration in Washington DC that refuses to acknowledge what the rest of the world already knows, the 21st Century will belong to China.


[edit on 6-6-2006 by toolman]

Originally posted by toolman
It is the current adminstration in Washington DC that refuses to acknowledge what the rest of the world already knows, the 21st Century will belong to China.


[edit on 6-6-2006 by toolman]

Just because you live there doesn't mean you know what you're talking about. China will grow old before it become powerful or rich

Richard Jackson and Neil Howe have written an excellent report about demographic trends for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) entitled The Graying of the Middle Kingdom.

CHINA IS ABOUT TO UNDERGO A STUNNING DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION. Today, China is still a young society. In 2004, the elderly—here defined as adults aged 60 and over—make up just 11 percent of the population. By 2040, however, the UN projects that the share will rise to 28 percent, a larger elder share than it projects for the United States.(See Figure 1.) In absolute numbers, the magnitude of China’s coming age wave is staggering. By 2040, assuming current demographic trends continue, there will be 397 million Chinese elders, which is more than the total current population of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom combined.

China's shift from a younger to older population is far more rapid than has been occurring in Western nations.

The forces behind China’s demographic transformation—falling fertility and rising longevity—are causing populations to age throughout the world. China’s aging, however, is occurring with unusual speed. In Europe, the elder share of the population passed 10 percent in the 1930s and will not reach 30 percent until the 2030s, a century later. China will traverse the same distance in a single generation. How China navigates its demographic transformation will go a long way toward determining whether it achieves its aspiration of becoming a prosperous and stable developed country. In the near term, while its population is still young and growing, China must rush to modernize its economy and raise living standards. In the long term, it must find ways to care for a much larger number of dependent elderly without overburdening taxpayers or overwhelming families.

China will have a higher percentage of elderly than the United States will by 2040.

Elderly (Aged 60 & Over) as a Percent of the Population China US
1970 7% 14%
2000 10% 16%
2015 15% 20%
2040 28% 25%
2050 31% 25%

www.futurepundit.com...
www.csis.org...

Demographics = Destination

Originally posted by toolman
This was an interesting thread to read.
I have been working in China for several years, we are commodities broker. we sell Various Oils from the middle east, Russia, Venezuela, and Africa into China as well as many other products.

If you have not visited China, i highly recommend it before discussing poor infrastructure, the quality of products, or state of the Military.

The freeways in China support battle tanks and heavy machinery, bridges are reinforced to support extra heavy loads as well.
China does export some poor quality product compared to other nations. But they keep higher quality product for Internal Use.
The state of their military is interesting, we see jets fly overhead ocasionally, they put on a show sometimes. Not on the level of the blue angels, but they are world class pilots. We speak with Military officials, they are as dedicated as any soldiers come. this being said;

China has the worlds largest trade deals in History. Some are with Iran, others with Russia, africa and south america. China is actively BUILDING refineries and fuel processing plants the world over. The USA has not built a refinery in what, 30 years?
There are over 280 Universities under construction in China at this moment. some are small, others will house 50,000 students, all will have 3G communication systems tied to each other, government resources, and the Web.
China is exploring Nuclear Fusion systems along with Europe. China is entering massive trade deals with Russia and Germany. China is on a path that will lead the Nation into the 21st Century, and will probably surpass America as a superpower in the next 15 - 18 years, assuming a 8% annual growth rate.

China will not need to invade Russia, or India, or Taiwan, or Japan. Those Nations are seeking stronger ties with China, because the numbers are all in China's column.

It is the current adminstration in Washington DC that refuses to acknowledge what the rest of the world already knows, the 21st Century will belong to China.


[edit on 6-6-2006 by toolman]

No one knows who the 21st century will belong to; personally I think it will remain Americas for a long time. China has a long way to go before surpassing America, and no their infrastructure is not all that well developed yet. When the team responsible for providing food to the people who made the movie "Mission Impossible III" went to China, they had to import all their own food because it was too unclean over there.

And there is also a lot of internal strife going on in China right now, which the media isn't too keen to report much of. The current administration also, unlike the rest of the world, isn't too keen to make great relations with a nation that for years it considered an enemy, essentially. France, Russia, Germany, none of those have ever been great allies of the United States, so they are very keen to team up with China.

Another thing to remember is that for China's economy to completely equal the United States's, China will have to consume more oil and more coal than the world itself currently produces. china already consumes more oil than the U.S., and it's ecnomy is not equal.

[edit on 6-6-2006 by WheelsRCool]

Originally posted by rogue1
Hmm, teh German invasion was very successful, they inflicted 10 times as amny losses on Russia than they recived.

Its true that during the first two years (1941 and 1942 )of the Great Patriotic War (1941-1945 ) the Russians suffered more losses than the Germans did but your claim of 10 times losses appears self-made ( you thought no one is going to count )…..can you please give me a link justifying your claim?

Initially the Russians suffered more losses due to many reasons
1 the German attack was a sudden and the Russians were not prepared
2 since Russia was attacked the Russian casualties were mainly civilian casualties while the German casualties was 100% military
3 Before the Operation Uranus was initiated by Stalin(1942) the Red Army was a bit disorganized with the Commis in the politburo controlling most part of the military
4 The Germans had an agenda of Ruthless wiping out of population unlike the soviets …….The Soviets could have wiped out the whole Germany once the captured Berlin in 1945 but they took a better revenge ….they kept the whole area from East Germany to Central Asia to Baltics to North Korea under their control for 40 years …..some of these areas are still under Russian Influence………..Germany was basically transformed to a slave state…..Still you say the invasion was successful…..well it depends on ur own definition of success ….How can a mission be successful when it cant accomplish its goal.. (here , Conquest of USSR) ?

Russia weas only able to fight back do in a large part to massive US Aid, ie. food, Studebakers. Without the 400 000 odd US trucks Russia would never have been able to make their army mobile. The Russian strength was just an enourmous amount of cannon fodder.

WW2 was my topic and I have read views of 10 historians regarding the great patriotic war 2 of them were communist 3 liberal 3 capitalist and the rest had their own views …all of them differed in opinion but not a single did support your opinion ie “””””””Russia weas only able to fight back do in a large part to massive US Aid, ie. food, Studebakers. Without the 400 000 odd US trucks Russia would never have been able to make their army mobile””””””””

If you have any link where an internationally acceptable Historian supports your claim please enlighten me ….

Following are my arguments aginst your claim

1 Soviet Union Won not only due to US aid but mainly due to the reforms that were bought in the army: a war technology was improved and updated
B Operation Uranus was initiated
C giving full powers to the brilliant General Gorgi Zhukhov and loosening party control in the army

2 The US that USSR received was mainly Food and Raw material….not prepared goods …
3 These aids were given as “Lend-Lease aid” USSR returned them with full interest …
4 the Trucks that ur speaking of was given to soviet union during the End stages of the war (1945) when the USSR has already defeated Germany and was approaching towards Berlin ….so they played no role as far as protecting our country was involved

Needless to say that the WW2 wasn’t won by a single party be it the British or the US or The USSR each of them helped the other in various way …but ur claims like USSR wont have been to do it with US aid and all those cannon fooder junks prove the standard of History in ur country …….US and the Brits helped us so did we …….If you say without US help soviets have lost …then I ll say if the Soviets haven’t retaliated the then the Germans would have easily defeated the Brits and with the help of the Japs would have fu..ed the yanks

I agree that US aid heledp us a lot it it wasn’t the main reason for our success the main reason for which we won was the reforms that were introduced in the Red Army and the Soviet Industry after 1942



with this I ll like to quote few lines by Prof Richard Overy :

Introduction
In his prison cell at Nuremberg, Hitler's foreign minister, Joachim von Ribbentrop, wrote a brief memoir in the course of which he explored the reasons for Germany's defeat.
He picked out three factors that he thought were critical:
the unexpected 'power of resistance' of the Red Army; the vast supply of American armaments; and the success of Allied air power.
This last was Hitler's explanation too.

The evidence of how poorly the Red Army fought in 1941 confirmed these expectations. More than five million Soviet soldiers were captured or killed in six months; they fought with astonishing bravery, but at every level of combat were out-classed by troops that were better armed, better trained and better led.
This situation seemed beyond remedy.

Yet within a year Soviet factories were out-producing their richly-endowed German counterparts - the Red Army had embarked on a thorough transformation of the technical and organisational base of Soviet forces, and a stiffening of morale, from Stalin downwards, produced the first serious reverse for the German armed forces when Operation Uranus in November 1942 led to the encirclement of Stalingrad and the loss of the German Sixth Army.

The transformation in Soviet fighting power and morale has a number of explanations.

In the first place the Red Army learned a great deal from German practice and from their own mistakes.
The air and tank armies were reorganised to mimic the German Panzer divisions and air fleets; communication and intelligence were vastly improved (helped by a huge supply of American and British telephone equipment and cable); training for officers and men was designed to encourage greater initiative; and the technology available was hastily modernised to match German.
Two other changes proved vital . First, Soviet industry and workforce proved remarkable adaptable for a command economy long regarded as inherently inefficient and inflexible.
pre-war experience of economic planning and mobilisation helped the regime to run a war economy on an emergency basis, while the vast exodus of workers (an estimated 16 million) and factories (more than 2,500 major plants) from in front of the advancing Germans allowed the USSR to reconstruct its armaments economy in central and eastern Russia with great rapidity.

The second factor lay with politics. Until the summer of 1942 Stalin and the Party closely controlled the Red Army. Political commissars worked directly alongside senior officers and reported straight back to the Kremlin. Stalin came to realise that political control was a dead hand on the army and cut it back sharply in the autumn of 1942.
He created a deputy supreme commander under him, the talented Marshal Zhukov, and began to step back more from the day-to- day conduct of the war. Given the freedom to work out their own salvation, the Soviet General Staff demonstrated that they could match the Germans on the battlefield. Not until the later stages of the war did Stalin begin to reimpose control, when victory was at last in sight.

Turnaround
The central question of the German-Soviet war is why, after two years of defeats, and the loss of more than five million men and two-thirds of the industrial capacity of the country, the Red Army was able to blunt, then drive back, the German attack.

The impressive production of weapons was achieved by turning the whole of the remaining Soviet area into what Stalin called 'a single armed camp', focusing all efforts on military production and extorting maximum labour from a workforce whose only guarantee of food was to turn up at the factory and work the arduous 12-hour shifts.

Without Lend-Lease aid, however, from the United States and Britain, both of whom supplied a high proportion of food and raw materials for the Soviet war effort, the high output of weapons would still not have been possible.

The chief explanation lies not in resources, which Germany was more generously supplied with than the Soviet Union, during the two central years of the war before American and British economic power was fully exerted. It lies instead in the remarkable reform of the Red Army and the Russian air force, undertaken slowly in 1942.
Every area of Soviet military life was examined and changes introduced. The army established the equivalent of the heavily armoured German Panzer divisions, and tank units were better organised - thanks to the introduction of radios. Soviet army tactics and intelligence-gathering were also overhauled.

Camouflage, surprise and misinformation were brilliantly exploited to keep the German army in the dark about major Soviet intentions. The air force was subjected to effective central control and improved communications, so that it could support the Soviet army in the same way as the Luftwaffe backed up German forces.

Links


How the allies won ?

The Soviet-German War 1941 - 1945

Originally posted by Daedalus3
And who's that man?

He is a J-8 pilot.

The numbers of planes are.

76 Su-27SK/UBK
76 Su-30MKK
24 Su-30MK2
100 J-11

50 J-10 or more since production started in '02 and the speculated figures are about 100 planes from the engine orders. About 354 engines so far

300 J-8 variants. The J-8H and J-8F are BVR platforms which will use a combination of PL-11/12 or the R-27. The other J-8 variants are suppose to be recieving this upgrade

The number for J-7E/G is about 250+ planes. So the rest of the 250 planes are older generation planes.

The number of planes easily numbers over 1000 planes altogether

Can China take Russia with 200 million men?

Personally I think numbers alone don't win wars, as history has shown numerous times, but they can help, less now than before due to the fact that technology can be a huge force multiplier. Even so fielding a military of 200 million men is unrealistic, impractical and quite frankly impossible (unless you're in to unarmed human waves which is idiotic and suicidal considering toady's technology and weapons). Now, the Russian/Chinese relationship is a very interesting one, both countries share common interests which require them to cooperate together, anti-US military/hegemony/influence, both consider rapid buildup/modernization of military forces important. Both desire military/economical/political and cultural influence on a global scale, and generally both want to increase the standard of living for the populous. However there are also several key issues between both countries which may cause problems in the near to long term future. The huge border between the two has been an issue in the past, Chin has made several Serbian territorial claims. China’s rapid growth has to be supported by natural, raw, and petroleum resources which might make these claims significant in the years to come. China’s military is building up and modernizing at a more rapid pace than its Russian counterpart, so when China’s political and military influence in the region grows, possible conflicts may emerge. China is also the biggest importer of Russian military technology and systems which may cause Russian forces to be less formidable due to the vast proliferation of their systems. However currently both countries are preoccupied with other matters and have no interest of fighting each other, but the potential is always there and its something to look out for.

Link

A war between the two would be pretty crazy though, Just imagine a war based soley around infantry....wow. The shear numbers alone would be mind bogging

The logistsics of keeping 200 million men fed and healthy alone are staggering and probably impossible. You'd need about 10 million trucks to transport them. A 200 million man army would make it larger than the worlds 5 most populous country which is Brazil at 176 million.

Anyways, I think the stats speak for themselves, impossible to field an army that big.

"No one knows who the 21st century will belong to; personally I think it will remain Americas for a long time. China has a long way to go before surpassing America, and no their infrastructure is not all that well developed yet. When the team responsible for providing food to the people who made the movie "Mission Impossible III" went to China, they had to import all their own food because it was too unclean over there"


America thinks it can continue spending 8 dollars for each dollar Business creates. China has over a trillion in the Kitty, in cash, about to spend on technology and manufacturing and space research and health care, etc. There is a city the size of san diego california being built every month.
I drive on Chinese roads every day, fly planes and take trains every month, and the mass transit system actually works here. I fly back the USA once a month, and cringe at how filthy san francisco is compared to cities ten times its size, and how terribly mismanaged transit systems are in the USA
Your reference is the MI III food team...lets try for something a bit more reputable.



"And there is also a lot of internal strife going on in China right now, which the media isn't too keen to report much of. The current administration also, unlike the rest of the world, isn't too keen to make great relations with a nation that for years it considered an enemy, essentially. France, Russia, Germany, none of those have ever been great allies of the United States, so they are very keen to team up with China"

Internal Strife? please detail the internal strife in China ?
If you want internal strife, how about the heads of most cabinet level positions resigning from the White house, or retired generals publically demanding the secretary of defense of the USA resign his position. the Bush administration is collapsing before the worlds eyes.

The Bush administration decided as public policy to not support american Business in China, so be it. It does this at the risk of losing the worlds largest comsumer market, as Trade between China and Europe Surpassed the USA in 2005




"Another thing to remember is that for China's economy to completely equal the United States's, China will have to consume more oil and more coal than the world itself currently produces. china already consumes more oil than the U.S., and it's ecnomy is not equal"

Chinas economy will surpass the USA within 12 -15 years. USA economy is founded on credit, China is founded on Profitable enterprise. Remove the bubble the USA economy exists on today ( deficit spending) and it collapses.
BY the way, you do know that China buys 50% of all USA debt, which allows the USA economy to continue? Once China stops buying USA debt, it collapses. You should thank your mortgage rate that China buys USA debt.

China is building over 100 Nuclear reactors, Thorium based that do not meltdown, explode, or overheat. they are self stopping and automatically shut down. China is building hydroelectric, and importing massive amounts of wind energy components and farms.
as far as Oil, China is actively building over 25 refineries the world over. China signed the largest Petrochemical contractgs in History with Middle eastern Nations. China is mandating fuel efficiency and penalizing cars with large guzzling engines. China will be selling Oil to the USA relatively soon, either through Joint Ventures with smarter nations, or through wholly owned enterprises.

America will be lucky to survive its present economic situation the next 10 years. China only needs to continue its present course.

Where does China get all that thorium feed for its 100 or so reactors?
Pop Quiz:

Which country has almost half the thorium reserves in world?

What is special about that J-8 pilot?

Isn't the J-8 PLANAF?

Australia has the largest known Thorium reserves, China has Uranium mining concessions with Australia as well as Thorium concessions.

People need to get out of the united states a bit more, see the world, see what is going on outside the paranoid mindset the Bush Adminstration created.

The world is not waiting for America, Euro - Asian research projects, space projects, fusion and medical research, economic ties, agricultural ties, cultural ties are all being accomplished.

It is the USA that is being left behind, not anyone else.

When the team responsible for providing food to the people who made the movie "Mission Impossible III" went to China, they had to import all their own food because it was too unclean over there

wow , just wow

so because a bunch of holywierd " celeberites " , thier Sycophants and toadies behave like petulant kiddies and want a " special diet " shipped in to thier EACT specification , this is PROOF that chinese agriculture / food supplies are substandard ????

ROFLMAO

i am not impressed , many of these " celebs " need a reality check -- despite thier delusions , they could actually survive without thier " special diets " and pampering -- if only they tried

this tells us more about thier inability to cope in the real world than any " problems " with Chinese sourced foodstuffs

Richard harris is not impressed either ,

"What I hate about our business today is the elitism. So-called stars ride in private jets and have bodyguards and dietitians and beauticians. Tom Cruise is a midget and he has eight bodyguards all 6 feet 10, which makes him even more diminutive. It's an absolute joke."

further , the staff at one of berlins finest hotels have to be told exactly how to feed him , are they unclean too ?????????

The Hollywood actor is currently in Berlin scouting locations for the action movie. Kitchen staff at The Four Seasons Hotel - where Cruise is staying - have been informed of the actor's diet and have been given a full list of what to serve him when he gets hungry.

wow the pampered little psycho dwarf sure is a fussy little pygmy

source=IMDB_news archives

heres a quick reality check -- 1.2 billion chinese eat this so called " unclean " food every day , with no apparent major ill effects

hundreds of world renonwed resteraunts operate in china , using ONLY chinese sourced ingredients

further thousands of specialist wholesale outlets around the world source thier stock directly from china

who are wrong , 1 pack of hollywierd asshats ?? or EVERYONE else ???

everyone EXCEPT master Cruise [ I cannot bring my self to call some one so dammed short , Mr - LOL ] and his hangers one manage with chines goods

why is that ??

i for one cannot take people seriously when they and thier ilk demand that the red M&M candies are removed by an assistant before they will eat them

and as a last dig , the fecking idiot [ Cruise ] was claiming he wanted to eat Ms Holmes placenta

now i see nothing wrong with that , but to then turn round and condem the entire food supply of China as " unclean " smacks of hypocrisy

[edit on 7-6-2006 by ignorant_ape]

Originally posted by toolman
I drive on Chinese roads every day, fly planes and take trains every month, and the mass transit system actually works here. I fly back the USA once a month, and cringe at how filthy san francisco is compared to cities ten times its size, and how terribly mismanaged transit systems are in the USA.

Mate as an Australian who lives in China as well, you have an extremely simplistic view, you negate to mention that much of China's wealth comes from the US. Also, there is a hell of a lot of pollution in China and there are a hell of a lot of poor people.
Don't get me wrong I think China is great, but it is far from the rosie picture you paint it to be.

Also, I have heard about India using thorium in future reactors ( they have 25% of the world supply ) but not much about China, care to provide a link.

as far as Oil, China is actively building over 25 refineries the world over. China signed the largest Petrochemical contractgs in History with Middle eastern Nations. China is mandating fuel efficiency and penalizing cars with large guzzling engines. China will be selling Oil to the USA relatively soon, either through Joint Ventures with smarter nations, or through wholly owned enterprises.

Hmm, so what if Chin is building 25 refineries, oil is a finite resource. I was actually watching a program on China's use of cars, they have 25 million now, in 2050 they are projected to have 600-800 million, you can't just create oil reserves you know, they are finite. Also India will increasingly compete with China for oil.

LOL, China will not be selling oil to the US LOL, you really think OPEC countries will sell China oil so they can mark it up for the US Why use a middle man when they can just sell directly to the US. Also, you assume China will have some kind of spare capacity, I assure you they will not.



[edit on 7-6-2006 by rogue1]

What would happen to China when the IMF devaluates the USD by another 50 percent as it has indicated it will do this year?

That would mean China would surprass the USA overnight.

And if China drops it's ownership of the US foreign debt. ouch.

China would never fight Russia as they are now allies and there are growing military ties between the two and among others.

toolman, the Bush Administration "collapsing?" America will be lucky to survive its present "economic situation" for another 10-15 years? Wow man. So I see you are just another anti-American person. Well anyways, you've got to be kidding me if you expect me to believe that the pollution in China is less than in America. You've also got to be kidding me if you expect me to believe China is building all of these refineries and cities. At China's current rate, they ALONE will be consuming MORE coal, oil, natural gas, steel, and other raw materials than the WORLD produces. So obviously, it just isn't going to happen. The Chinese economy will keep growing, then level off at some point, simply because resources are limited.

And you must not have seen much of China. China has a heck of a lot of poor folk. America has a population of around 300 million, with about on average 1 million people with a net worth of $1 million dollars or more. China has a population of over a billion, with about 375,000 people with an equivalent net worth of $1 million or more. Big difference in how the wealth is spread.

As for the American economy, it has proven itself to be very formidable. It has only weathered two hurricanes, which messed up the oil supply in the Gulf of Mexico, a war, and terrorist attacks, all within the span of five years. And last I checked, it wasn't doing too bad. The Chinese economy has had no such threat to test it. And by the way, you forgot one BIG source of strength of the Chinese economy: FOREIGN INVESTMENT. If the U.S. economy ever fails, how the heck is the economy its locked into, the Chinese economy, going to survive? Your statement that "America will be lucky to survive its present economic situation in the next 10-15 years" doesn't even make sense.

Regarding the Bush Administration, of course plenty of former generals are calling for its end, these generals love media attention. General Swarzkoff, who commanded the Gulf War, proved that. Other generals have no problem with the war in Iraq. The Bush Administration is probably one of the few decent administrations we've had in recent years.

And no, contrary to popular thought, it doesn't "refuse to acknowledge" that the Chinese will be a strong force in the 21st century. If anything, it over-estimates its growing military capabilities. Unlike the liberal Clinton Administration, the Bush Administration does not believe in "sucking up" and providing technology freely to a nation that it has generally regarded an untrustworthy, a nation with questionable human rights practices, and a nation that has no qualms with making friends out of other human rights violaters.

The Bush Administration has this thing called morals, meaning they don't just side with a rising power b/c there's money to be made, unlike Clinton who gave China technology.

And no, no one knows how the Chinese economy will do in the next years, there are economic experts who claim it will surpass the U.S. economy in 45 years, some say 15, no one knows, it may never do so because its growth will flatten out as raw materials start lacking.

At the world's current output of raw materials, it cannot support China by itself, let alone the rest of the worlds.

Back in the 1980s, everyone claimed the fast-rising Japanese economy would knock out the U.S. economy eventually.

So anyhow, essentially in your view, come 2020, America will collapse (which would collapse the Chinese economy) and somehow the Chinese economy, with its source of strength and wealth cut out from under it, plus the fact the world can't supply enough raw materials, will magically continue to grow You my friend are nothing but an America-hating, Chinese fan-boy, which you have proven to me.