War: Can China take Russia with 200 million men?

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posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 12:37 AM
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Bottom line is Russia cannot be invaded by China.. not now.. not ever.. It'll just nuke the hell out of China..Its threatened to do so before as well.. In the 60s in think;over some dispute of the ..'Ughur' River?

Also Russia can choke all supply routes to China across the Caspian and the Middle East. They have the forces all across CARs(Central Asian Republics) over there to do so and China cannot stop that.
Also if the US doesn't interfere, Russia can just move the Kusnetsov carrier and a bunch of surface ships with some SSNs to the Indian ocean and block the Malacca supply line.




posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 12:56 AM
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Though in theory China has enough man power to field a 200 million strong army in practice its really impossible. Consider the most prolific rifle on the planet the AK-47 and all its variants total only about 50 million ffor the whole planet. So even if china had every single AK on the planet they could only give a rifle to 1/4 of that force. There would be so many logistical problem for keeping a army that big.

Besides Russia would just nuke the crap out of them they have more then enough to kill that many people. Numbers alone stop winning battles along time ago.



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 01:00 AM
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It's much harder to invade than to defend, UN invade NK unsuccessful because of China's support, and Russia invade afganistan unsucessful because of US's support....

I suppose neither Russia nor China can successfully "invade" or "conquer" each other, and the same goes to the US



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 01:29 AM
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Originally posted by Daedalus3
Also Russia can choke all supply routes to China across the Caspian and the Middle East. They have the forces all across CARs(Central Asian Republics) over there to do so and China cannot stop that.


Russia never had the capability to do so. But any capablity they had, they lost that in 1989. Since 1979 china has been trying to gain that capability. Seems sucessful so far

PLA DOCTRINE ON SECURING ENERGY RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA

The chinese forces in xingjiang are nearly completly mechanized. It tells you what the chinese are planning by a limited war. Taiwan is just a diversion

In the CAR russia has miminal forces, border guards. If you think that the CAR will just let russia walk in attack their main export and stay there you are thinking of a different era. But if we humour the possiblity of a war between two stragtic partners then we might as well assume this would be a full-scale war. Depending on the amount of escalation china would win a conventional war in central asia

China is also one of the founding partnets of SCO, which is the most important pact in central asia.



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 02:24 AM
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CARs IS Russia!!
Its all Soviet Union stuff!!
Except for the now busted 'orange revolution' in Ukraine, all of CARs is very much loyal to Russia.Not one country is rebellious to Russian influence.

Gosh most of the military hardware there is STILL under the control of Moscow.
The SCO is not boosting Chinese influence in the region OVER that of Russia's. Russia is allowing China access to its own backyard.W/o Russia's backing the SCO would only involve Mongolia and maybe Pakistan. Not even Afghanistan would enter.
Anyways that bit about armored Divisions in Xinxiang, well all thats all well and good, but still thats not going to be useful against what Russia has in the CARs and in the vicinity.
We could do a army/AF orbat check and confirm if you'd like.



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 03:35 AM
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Originally posted by Daedalus3
CARs IS Russia!!
Its all Soviet Union stuff!!


No there not. The SCO blinds all countries as equal partners in affairs. Russia does not have the pull it once use to have in those areas. You might like to check the SCO

They have not been put in a situation between russia and china so to speculate which country is better is just pure assumtions


We could do a army/AF orbat check and confirm if you'd like.


We should do a check for troops inside CAR instead of orbats, if we did it by orbats i could claim chinas 250,000+ RRU could be there alone with the 4 divisions in xingjiang

Forgot to put this link in
Russian Military Capabilities in Central Asia

Seems they dont have such a large force after all

[edit on 5-6-2006 by chinawhite]



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 05:26 AM
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Originally posted by chinawhite
Iran, sudan, indonesia, australia, saudi arabia, kuwait, venezuela, Kazakhstan. The list actually goes on and on and on.

Chinas own oil production per day 3.504 million bbl/day (2004)

Oil - consumption: 6.391 million bbl/day (2004)

Oil - imports: 3.226 million bbl/day (2004)

In the event of war they will have stopped production of consumer goods and would have shifted those oil supplies (which make up the vast majority of consumtion) to war industries. That where china will get its oil from


I dont know about the exact energy dependancy of China but I am sure they are major oil importer and very soon they are going to be dependent (I donno how much ) on russia for oil

now here is the case China decides to attack Russia .No oil from Russia ...China seeks oil abroad .....Muslim countries are more likely to stay neutral due to two facts 1 US pressure (US certainly wont like a new power to rise )
2 with present day situation most the Muslim countries are pro Russian ...mainly due to the fact that Russia is OFFICIALLY against US /Israili invasion to these oil richj states under the name of war against terrorism (needless to say Russia is agaist for her own interest )

So China will have to fuel herself from within .....stopping the consumer goods to get fuel will put pressure on the Economy which needs to sail smooth in case China wants to win ...IN THE LONG RUN THE OIL Will Negatively affect China in any MAJOR Military operation


Russia has a advanced technology base?.


invariably it has .....if it didnot then developing countries like Indioa and China wouldnt have been desperate for Russian military and space Technology , Russian Universities wouldnt have been filled with Chinese students under Russian scolarships and the US wouldnt have to depend on Russia for the only rockets to ISS


But lets factor in training and condition of the chinese armed forces compared to the mightly russian frederation. Russian pilots get 20hours of training a year whilst J-8 pilots in china get 180 hours.

I wonder if the russian airforce is cutting back funds for the armaments like the AAM or ground attack missiles to much those rusty buckets even have some attacking capability


The facts that put forward is atleast 15 years old steriotype about russia u are totally unware of recent developments Russia pilots have set records in all major air shows in the last 10 years .,...some of them are internationally recognised to be milestones in air defense .I havent seen Chinese pilots to set such landmarks .....afterall innovation and talent has some value in some parts of this world ....i hope u got me


During the combined war game between Russia and US in Germany the US General said both side have every thing in common(talent skill knowledge )apart from the language

educate urself


Loop holes..........very wishful thinking

so u admit Russian technology is without loopholes?





Mongolia, Germans WW1, and a host of other countries before russia was even russia

my Claim was that Russia has never been succesfully invaded

When the Germans invaded us we f...ed them and replyed by capturing Berlin and using the German soilders as labours to make our underground metro stations

Nepolion was screwed

When mongols invaded there was no country/kingdom called Russia .....Russia came in being when the Romanovs defeated the mongols and united the feudal states

so I am quite justified in saying that
RUSSIA has Never been SUCCESSFULLY Invaded
and if China repeats the same mistake ..History will repeat itself ....

China is developing no doubt but still China is not yet in a position to invade Taiwan or India ....forget Russia



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 09:29 AM
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Originally posted by prelude
When the Germans invaded us we f...ed them and replyed by capturing Berlin and using the German soilders as labours to make our underground metro stations

Nepolion was screwed

When mongols invaded there was no country/kingdom called Russia .....Russia came in being when the Romanovs defeated the mongols and united the feudal states

so I am quite justified in saying that
RUSSIA has Never been SUCCESSFULLY Invaded
and if China repeats the same mistake ..History will repeat itself ....


Hmm, teh German invasion was very successful, they inflicted 10 times as amny losses on Russia than they recived. Russia weas only able to fight back do in a large part to massive US Aid, ie. food, Studebakers. Without the 400 000 odd US trucks Russia would never have been able to make their army mobile. The Russian strength was just an enourmous amount of cannon fodder.



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 10:17 PM
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What ever anyone says..
Russia has more influence than ANYBODY in the central Asian republics. I'm not only talking economic,cultural,and social. I'm talking about military forces deployed in the CARs. It is just impossible for China to secure that region w/o jeopardising other frontlines.
China may have the dollar carrot for the mule of the CARs but the guiding noose is still with Russia.



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 11:05 PM
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Russia does have much influence in Central Asian conuntries, and pretty much uses them already as a buffer zone from potential spill-off from conflicts in Muslim nations to the south. Thats why Russia is trying so hard to improve their relations- which are already good- with Kazakhstan (that and oil / natural gas). That region is crucial to stability in Russia, and it will do everything in its power to keep its influence there.

Plus if China desides to invade they would have an extremely hard time even getting to the Ural Mountains, which separate the heavily populated Western (European) Russia from Eastern (Asian) Russia. There are very few roads in Eastern Russia, virtually no highways, countless rivers, swamps, and other natural barriers. The ground forces would never get far.



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 11:17 PM
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Originally posted by prelude
I dont know about the exact energy dependancy of China


The largest amount of projected oil to china by 2010 is about 20 million tons of oil or about 400,000 barrals a day. That is just over the amount of oil china exports. That is the projected figure and does not yet take into account good or bad actions. That is still lacking even close to middle eastern exports.

The middile east as of now provides 60% of chinas oil imports and is going to jump to 75% according to some forecast. Even if we dont include countries like nigeria, indonesia, south america or even canadian imports, that is only 40% Maximum now and 25% Maximum in the near future


Muslim countries are more likely to stay neutral due to two facts
1 US pressure
2 with present day situation most the Muslim countries are pro Russian


I doubt any of the flowing would happen. Since the 1980's china has made extensive ties with middle eastern countries. Saudis, Kuwait and yeman are most of chinas biggest oil exporters and there is non-existant russian influence since all those countries were originally US spheres of influence to begin with.

Maybe in countries like syria or Libya where russia still holds influence might stop shipping there ting amount of oil but i cant really see any other middle eastern country stopping oil shipments to china. Even if they were neutral it still wouldn't stop because they are countries which make money off oil, if no one is buying oil then they dont make money. China offers them profits while russia is a competitor. Russia doesn't offer anything to chinas main suppilers which is worth anything

Saudi Arabia cuts oil sales to U.S., ups China

The title tells it all

Most middle eastern countries aren't pro russia. OPEC and russia are oil competitors while chechnya, afganistan are all to real memories. Russia supported iraq in the gulf war, iraq invaded kuwait and were threating to invade saudi arabia. Why would you think that they would stay neutral



So China will have to fuel herself from within .....stopping the consumer goods to get fuel will put pressure on the Economy which needs to sail smooth in case China wants to win


With the amount of monetry reserves china has still will out last russia quite easily. China as of now stands at about 700billion dollars while russia has only 170+billion. Its not the russia of old where mass production wins the war. China is now the powerhouse of industrial production. She makes more steel than the US, japan and russia combined.

Chinas new doctrim is not a drawn out war where it slowly gathers men and slowly advances. It has never been like that. Chinas army is slowly becoming very moblie. And if you see the divisions china has step up in xingjiang or the 38th and 39th armies in northern china, It will over run the little russian garrison up north. Any senario would see the chinese army taking the valuble land from the russians and leave the rest of the area that it doesn't need. Who is going to stop us?

In a full scale military conflict without nuclear weapons, consumer goods production would be stopped. No questions asked, its common sense just to stop un-essential industries. The oil china does use is for transportantion, eg cars, ships.

China this year has started to fill its 150 million barrel stratgic reserve. While russia is still in its planning stage. Current chinese stocks will last for 30 days on the current use china has now.


if it didnot then developing countries like Indioa and China wouldnt have been desperate for Russian military and space Technology


The technology russia has suppiled to china is not high tech, It was used to fill in the capability gap china had at that time. Like you have said before, none of the technology could be considered high tech, They are still soviet era technology upgraded with forigen technology.

The reason china tries to do deals with israel and dual-use technology items is because their russian counterparts is not good. As shown by the MKI project and the T-90 which was fitted with a french made FCS. Also the indians opted for a israeli AWACS instead of the russian A-50. But the advantage russia has is price and the ability to take barted goods instead of hard currency.

Currently china has not signed any deals for fighters or more submarines, The only deals was the IL-76 transport and tankers for the equipment china already has. Even india stopped signing deals for all exculsive russian equipment and has out fitted russian equipment with imported gear, The MKI is a good example and the jagur and Mig-27 upgrades. They to have turned to the israelis for technology since russian technology is not to advanced

Space technology is a non-issue, the shenzhou capsule is chinese and the majority and all major systems are chinese. It took six space lanuchers to test them all out. What the russians provided with the training for space and some smaller componets which would have taken longer to design. China would prefer to work with other countries like NASA because there technology is alot more advanced.

Russia was the only countries which could make a rocket fast enough or have some space rockets to put into space. The reason the US didn't put their space shuttle into orbit was because they had even up on dispoable rockets and made the most advanced sapce ship ever built.



The facts that put forward is atleast 15 years old steriotype about russia u are totally unware of recent developments Russia pilots have set records in all major air shows in the last 10 years


They are no sterotypes, they are real facts. Russian pilots still are getting 20-40 hours of training a year while chinese pilots in J-6s rack up twice as much and J-8 pilots in china get 180 hours. Not to gloat but thats a huge difference between what china considers supporting fighters and not the elite planes which fly the Su-27/Su-30MKK combo or the J-10.

What are important records if only a couple or your test pilots get that training instead of sharing the funds around and getting them trained. How much of your pilots know how to do a cobra or any other "records" at airshows. Air shows are air shows but pilot training is pilot training. Two very different concepts.

The current russian defence budget is $24 billion USD.. That is not enough to run planes and get plane upgrades. How much of the Mig-29s and Su-27s have been upgraded or even made airworthy. There are about 11 major military exercises in china a year. There are numerous pictures of the chinese navy getting some ocean time. How is the russian navy doing?



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 11:39 PM
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Originally posted by prelude
I havent seen Chinese pilots to set such landmarks


Because nothing of the sort is reported. China is not looking to de-dazzle people with aircraft manuvers and does not need air shows to shows its equipment. Though i doubt any chinese pilot goes and recieves training on how to do a cobra manuver. I know the planes they fly are air worthly and recieve as much hours of training as a western pilot would recieve.

Just wait a few more years for landmarks to be set. China does have the largest number of engineers coming out of university every year. All 600,000 thousand of them. One good thing coming out of all these projects is the FC-1, which is using technology only seen on the JSF, It is also showing a nice cockpit confirguration with the three large MFDs. Very nice plane. Lets see how the plane with match the Mig-29/35 in the export market in the next couple of years


During the combined war game between Russia and US in Germany the US General


Why does that matter?, The link you showed me shows soviet era weapons getting a upgrade. Nothing there is inovative. Its just like taking a chair and putting a clock in it, You re-invent the wheel a couple of times and then try to sell it off.

New warheads for old missiles, Old helicopters new paint, old tank new gun.


so u admit Russian technology is without loopholes?


No,

Both sides would be under the same effect. China did get the equipment in 1996 and would have seen any deflects in the equipment from building the planes and using the 180+hours of training they get to see if there are any deflects.

Also you might know of the J-11 project where its a Su-27 body but upgrade with chinese avonics and possibly radar. Takes most of the deflects away.


Russia came in being when the Romanovs defeated the mongols and united the feudal states


I could as easily claim that about any other country. You should have said from this period to this period. Then there was the soviet union which is NOT russia because it had other countries which were not russian. The mongols did defeat any other empire in the region

And they did get sucessfully invaded, Germany WW1. Remember how russia lost poland and other countries to germany. That is called a sucessful invasion


China is developing no doubt but still China is not yet in a position to invade Taiwan or India ....forget Russia


Well,

Russia couldn't defeat afganistan, and chechnya, does that make them a better power because russia cant win?. A two edged sword with that argument.

And china can already defeat taiwan and india. As of now china holds a numerial superioty and a technological superioty to both nations. If china was stupid and wanted to go to war and wreak its economy and image than it would win. But the chinese government knows that with economic development is can ebat any other country in the long run. Thats if we human beings can survive 50 more years



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 11:56 PM
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Originally posted by chinawhite
All 600,000 thousand of them. One good thing coming out of all these projects is the FC-1, which is using technology only seen on the JSF, It is also showing a nice cockpit confirguration with the three large MFDs. Very nice plane. Lets see how the plane with match the Mig-29/35 in the export market in the next couple of years.


LOL and what technology is this from teh F-35 ? All planes built over the last 2 decade s have multiple MFD's, nothing new there
Well maybe for CHIna.

]



posted on Jun, 5 2006 @ 11:59 PM
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Originally posted by chinawhite
And china can already defeat taiwan and india. As of now china holds a numerial superioty and a technological superioty to both nations. If china was stupid and wanted to go to war and wreak its economy and image than it would win. But the chinese government knows that with economic development is can ebat any other country in the long run. Thats if we human beings can survive 50 more years


LOL, right. I've yet to see this technological superiority. As for numuerical, I doubt they have one over INdia, the PLA has been massively downsized over the last decade. Also woth regards to Taiwan, China doesn't have the capacity to land a decent sized invasion force.
Enough of the chest thumping, how about using a little more brain power - if it's possible.



posted on Jun, 6 2006 @ 12:18 AM
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All you had was that and you used two post?


Originally posted by rogue1
LOL and what technology is this from teh F-35 ?


Rogue1 or should i say mad scientist.....pathetic

Well i thought this one would be obvious. DSI intakes


I've yet to see this technological superiority


Do a comparison between Block 15 F-16s and Mirage 2000 with the Su-27SMK and Su-30 class fighters. Also if you want to a comaprison between the R-27AE with any A2A weapon china posses. Loop sided wouldn't you think?.

That is a airforce comparison now a naval comparison between 12 kilo submarines 12 song class submarines with four gruppy class subamrines taiwan currently has. There is also no naval comparison since the chinese navy posses better strike, air defence and ASW weapons compared to either india or taiwan

There are 300 J-8s, 300 J-7s, 76 Su-27/UBK, 76 Su-30MKK , 24 Su-30MK2. Plus about 50 J-10s from 2004, let alone the current production rate and you have a force which is larger than any other force in asia. Not to mention the massive amount of AA missiles china has in warehouses comapred to the 120 Aim-120s taiwan has


Also woth regards to Taiwan, China doesn't have the capacity to land a decent sized invasion force.


Only 60,000 by ship with 10,000 by air. Might like to check out the latest PLA transports being made. Combine this with the thousands of other ships the PLA could use as transports


Enough of the chest thumping, how about using a little more brain power - if it's possible.


Lucky you have two accounts, when you thumb your chest in one and look like a jack ass then you change. No wonder one of those names always picks the other up when they are gone



posted on Jun, 6 2006 @ 12:51 AM
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Can give a link on those average flying hours per year for PLAAF (J-8/J-10) pilots?
180 seems very steep..
Esp. according to this article which compares ROCAF and PLAAF average flying hours
Check the PDF)
Source

Although I suspect this maybe a bit outdated.

Here's a more recent article by Jamestown Foundation:


Finally, one of the largest unanswered questions concerning PLAAF pilots is, “How many hours do they fly per year, and how good is the training during those hours?” Unfortunately, unlike other countries, the PLAAF does not provide this information for the public. However, it is possible to observe some trends from small pieces of data. For example, the PLAAF’s official magazine, China Air Force (Zhongguo Kongjun), occasionally has personal data about its pilots. Three articles between 2002 and 2005 provide information on three non-Sukhoi fighter pilots, who have averaged 115 to 125 hours of flight time per year. [12] Although the articles do not mention the reason for the lack of flying time, one of the primary factors is concern for the limited number of hours the non-Sukhoi fighter engines can have before they are must be overhauled or scrapped.

Although China Air Force now has lots of articles with information about the PLAAF’s Sukhoi pilot training, they do not provide data about flying hours for the pilots. However, the photos do indicate that the pilots are considerably younger than the pilots who were assigned to the first two PLAAF regiments of Su-27s in 1992 and 1996 and the first J-11 regiment in 2000.

Source



posted on Jun, 6 2006 @ 01:04 AM
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China can defeat India?!!
Are you crazy... where did u pull that one from?

How many AA-12s does China have?
How many a/c that the PLAAF has actually have radars that can enable them to fire the AA-12?
The normal Su-27s can't I think..



posted on Jun, 6 2006 @ 01:10 AM
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sorry double post..

[edit on 6-6-2006 by Daedalus3]



posted on Jun, 6 2006 @ 01:58 AM
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world powers don't randomly invade other world powers blindly for resources like Napoleon anymore. People are more civilized and use diplomacy. We are going to need another Hitler to have a full fled invasion to deal with.



posted on Jun, 6 2006 @ 03:48 AM
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Here




How many AA-12s does China have?


Warehouses full of them. They paid something like $500million for extra munitions. The problem taiwan faces is that every arms shipment made out of the US has to get passed by congress. They have brought stocks of Aim-120s but cant get them out until fighting actually starts


How many a/c that the PLAAF has actually have radars that can enable them to fire the AA-12?


All the MKKs and some J-11s and Su-27 when they were added extra modes to their N001E to allow them to fire the R-77. It wasn't a added mode but other changes to the avonics





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