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Business economists foresee slowdown in US growth

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posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 12:44 PM
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WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation's business economists think President Donald Trump's trade war with China will contribute to a sharp slowdown in economic growth this year and next, raising concerns about a possible recession starting late next year.

The latest survey by a panel of 51 forecasters with the National Association for Business Economics shows they expect growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, to slow to 2.3% this year from 2.9% in 2018. The new forecast marks a downgrade from the 2.6% estimate for 2019 economic growth that the NABE panel had made in June.

For 2020, the forecasters expect GDP growth to fall to 1.8%. They see little likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months but expect the risk to increase by late next year. Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said the forecasting panel turned more pessimistic over the summer, with 80% of the economists now saying the risks are pointed to the downside.

"The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth are considered key downside risks," Daco said.


www.yahoo.com...

It looks like economists are predicting a slow down in the economy, caused to a degree by the Trump tariff war. 47% of economist see a recession by the end of 2020.

Seeing as how Trump is running on the prospects of a good economy, how will this affect his chances if the economy tanks?

The numbers from September were not stellar, industrial production and jobs are down, and the recovery started under Obama seems to be fading.

The only other accomplishment that Trump has achieved in his first term is a tax cut for the rich that never expires, unlike the modest tax cut for the middle class that expires in 2025.

Looks like Trump may not be running on the economy after all - the steam has run out of the Obama economy due to the tariff war with china, and Trump will have to own that, give in to china, or watch the US economy tank.




posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 12:50 PM
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a reply to: HanyManny

What steam of Obama economy are we enjoying?



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 12:54 PM
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a reply to: HanyManny


Seeing as how Trump is running on the prospects of a good economy, how will this affect his chances if the economy tanks?


It won't affect it. He'll just say that the economy is booming even though every metric says otherwise. And people will believe him. Because people are dumb.

As is tradition.




posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 12:56 PM
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a reply to: HanyManny
Forgive me if I laugh at this 'prediction' reported by Another Progressive (AP) predicting doom in the future blaming Trump right before the election.
It is a blatantly obvious, tired (cried wolf) agenda that only the brain dead sheep pay any attention to at this point.

This is the desperate MSM and their globalist masters at this point.

They know they will lose a general election and will BAMN try to prevent that happening.
You make a good NPC tool hany.



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 12:58 PM
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The economy has booms and busts regardless of who is president. Having said that, it’s been pretty good and hopefully stays that way. I’m more worried about the dollar tanking.
edit on 8-10-2019 by willzilla because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:02 PM
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originally posted by: underwerks
a reply to: HanyManny


Seeing as how Trump is running on the prospects of a good economy, how will this affect his chances if the economy tanks?


It won't affect it. He'll just say that the economy is booming even though every metric says otherwise. And people will believe him. Because people are dumb.

As is tradition.




The economy is so bad that citizens are buying land to start up a hemp farm.
🤔

What a hypocrite you are.



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:02 PM
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Agreed.

Trump will gas light about the economy. He already is.

But when we lose more jobs due to tariffs, and unemployment shoots up, people will feel it, and know he is lying.



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:05 PM
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originally posted by: willzilla
The economy has booms and busts regardless of who is president. Having said that, it’s been pretty good and hopefully stays that way. I’m more worried about the dollar tanking.


Record budget deficits, trickle down economy, a trade war without end.... What could possibly go wrong?

articles2.marketrealist.com...

When the dollar does tank trump will find a way with his great and unmatched wisdom to blame it on someone else. He's so ego driven "the chosen one" is blameless.




edit on 8-10-2019 by olaru12 because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:24 PM
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a reply to: olaru12

Question do you believe that our trade agreements was fair before?



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:26 PM
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wooohoooo an economic collapse - it's a Lefties wish come true....

Because if millions of people lose their jobs and homes and starve - that means Trump wont get re-elected.

Right?



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:30 PM
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originally posted by: HanyManny
Agreed.

Trump will gas light about the economy. He already is.

But when we lose more jobs due to tariffs, and unemployment shoots up, people will feel it, and know he is lying.


Why would we lose jobs due to tariffs? Raising tariffs on China might slow down growth temporarily but it'll bounce back once we start producing things here and not relying on other countries.



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:33 PM
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a reply to: toolgal462

Watch how bad these people scream and squall about Trump if that ever happened. This is what they've been wanting and now they'll cry about it happening LOL. Not that I think it'll happen.
edit on 8-10-2019 by LSU2018 because: Talking to your boss and typing under the radar is tricky.



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:37 PM
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For those of you who do not know about economics, here is a simple blurb on how tariffs affect the economy:


Tariffs—taxes or duties placed on an imported good by a domestic government—are usually levied as a percentage of the declared value of the good, similar to a sales tax. Unlike a sales tax, tariff rates are often different for every good and tariffs do not apply to domestically produced goods.

Impact on the Economy Except in all but the rarest of instances, tariffs hurt the country that imposes them, as their costs outweigh their benefits. Tariffs are a boon to domestic producers who now face reduced competition in their home market. The reduced competition causes prices to rise. The sales of domestic producers should also rise, all else being equal. The increased production and price causes domestic producers to hire more workers which causes consumer spending to rise. The tariffs also increase government revenues that can be used to the benefit of the economy.


www.thoughtco.com...


The more you know....



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:38 PM
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www.cnn.com...


Huh, global slowdow.....



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:39 PM
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originally posted by: LSU2018
a reply to: toolgal462

Watch how bad these people scream and squall about Trump if that ever happened. This is what they've been waqnting and now they'll cry about it happening LOL. Not that I think it'll happen.


Of course this is what they want to happen. Bill Maher wasn't afraid to say it out loud, "if it gets rid of Trump, bring on the recession".

These people are selfish to the core....



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:51 PM
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Democrats hate real prosperity.

They prefer a Troglodyte Economy where the majority is under full government dependency 😎

Trump's Tariffs and Trade arrangements have created millions of new (and re-new'd) jobs 😎

Fake MSM wants to "Create" a recession for political purposes and they don't care who suffers 😃



posted on Oct, 8 2019 @ 01:51 PM
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Yay, though I walk through the Valley of Walmart,
I will fear no blue-light specials.
The Lord gives me kung-fu in the face of my enemies and those who would peddle inferior quality goods.
Amen.



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