Recently it's in the news in the Philippines that there is a polio "outbreak" because of.. well.. I really don't understand why - and I'm hoping
people here can fill in the blanks.
Hot off the digital press from the WHO (and before that local outlets, tho it seems rather coordinated) is the following:
WHO, UNICEF and partners support Philippine Department of Health’s polio
Ok, so on September 19, 2019 we have the WHO, UNICEF and PH DOH reporting a polio outbreak in a remote area nearby Marawi, Mindanao. This also happens
to be the same province of the
Marawi city war with current curfew
going on there.
Back to polio and what appears to be foreshadowing, so let's look a brief recent history. I've no doubt rabbit holes to deep and long if you dig
into them, and I'm sleepy so I'll start with the framework.
27 APR 2016 - The Philippines joins the global
oral polio vaccine ‘switch’
The point here is that the Philippines joins the world effort to "On its National Switch Day, the country joins the rest of the world in replacing
the trivalent Oral Polio Vaccine with the bivalent type (tOPV to bOPV)."
Shortly thereafter, it's election time.
Philippine presidential election held on May 9, 2016
. New President
(Duterte), new administration. They got handed the bags of both the Dengavaxia vaccine
plus also the Polio vaccine agreement from 2016.
There have been no publicly known outbreaks of the polio virus in the Philippines since 2013, and it was declared polio safe in 2000.
Now, after 19 years from being considered polio eradicated, somehow it made a comeback. Polio does no exist in the wild very long. The only known
carriers are humans and primates.
How could a virus resurrect? Perhaps from the vaccine itself through vaccine shedding. In this case, it's called "cVDPV" - which means
"circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus
It's been documented before:
1. OPV Vaccination and Shedding Patterns in Mexican and US Children
"Wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission has not been interrupted in Afghanistan, Nigeria, and
Pakistan. Rare circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks can occur in areas with low oral poliovirus vaccination coverage."
Interesting to admit vaccine shedding is a thing. It always is. Polio is a really bad one to have that happen.
The question of ongoing polio eradication problems to indicate actual issues via cVDPV rates. Why does polio continue to occur in places considered
polio free (or not), while having a cVDPV statistic?
Example of cVDVP:
Countries reporting cVDPV cases and isolations. During January 2017–March 2019, cVDPV
transmission was confirmed in nine countries. Two countries (Indonesia and Papua New Guinea) reported separate cVDPV type 1 (cVDPV1) circulation, with
27 AFP cases and seven positive environmental samples. Seven countries (DRC, Kenya, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, and Syria) detected nine
emergences of cVDPV2 with isolates from 176 AFP cases and 97 environmental samples. Nigeria reported no cVDPV isolates in 2017; however, in 2018, two
cVDPV2 outbreaks were confirmed. One, centered in Sokoto, was detected through environmental surveillance; the other was initially detected in Jigawa
State with subsequent detections in six other states and bordering Niger. An additional outbreak detected through environmental surveillance was
confirmed in Bauchi State in March 2019. During 2018–2019 to date, 41 cVDPV2 cases have been detected in Nigeria and 10 in Niger. Since 2017, five
independent cVDPV2 outbreaks, with 43 cases, have been reported in DRC. cVDPV2 transmission was detected from five AFP patients and three
environmental surveillance sites in Somalia, and a genetically linked isolate was detected from an environmental surveillance site in Nairobi, Kenya.
cVDPV type 3 transmission involving six AFP patients† and 11 environmental samples was detected in Somalia (Table 2) (9).
1. Polio, outside of humans and primates, can live up to 2 months outside the
2. Was the virus introduced externally or via vaccine shedding?
3. This polio "outbreak" was predicted at least a month ago on
August 17 by the government
. Almost exactly a month later a
polio case appeared. Simply amazing timing.
The last reported case was in 1993, and the Philippines publicly declared it eradicated in 2000.
Now all of a sudden a couple cases show up and the gov panics the country. I agree polio is serious, but the circumstances are rather alarming as
Polio cannot live in the wild for over 2 months, yet after 1 case near Marawi, all of a sudden Manila is involved, which is hundreds of miles away.
I'm not discounting the threat of polio, but circumstances followed by foreshadowing fearmongering followed by 1 ambiguous case and 2 reported
samples separated by seas and without detail causes me to go.. something's not right here.
It's late, I'm tired, and have many sources, but just putting this out there for all to read and assess and give comments.