a reply to: UKTruth
Actually, it's about gathering enough support to be task by the President to establish a Government backed by at least 61 MKs.
Under the Israeli system, the Israeli President will consult the leaders of all parties represented in the new Knesset on who they think should be
tasked with forming a Government. He will then task the MK who he thinks has the greatest chance to do so (= has the most recommendations behind him).
The politician in question will then try to establish a coalition with a majority in the Knesset.
It's not at all unusual for partys who recommended someone else for PM to join the eventual coalition. And vise versa, parties who recommended the
next PM to the President might not join the coalition.
This time neither Gantz nor Netanyahu have a majority. It doesn't matter at all whether Blue and White or Likud are tied of Blue and White is 1 seat
in front. Only recommendations matter in the next phase.
As of today it looks like Netanyahu has his troops lined up, Likud, Shas, UTJ and Yamina - thats 31+9+8+7 = 55 seats for the right excluding
If we assume Gantz gobbles up everyone else including the Arabs - Blue and White, Joint List, Labor-Gesher and Democratic Union, thats 56 seats.
So Rivlin (who doesnt like Netanyahu very much) will nominate Gantz to try to form a Government. IF Gantz can convince the Arabs to nominate him which
i probably think he'll be able to.
So on to phase 3, if Gnat gets the nomination that doesn't mean he can form a Government. It'll will fall back to Lieberman and the 9 seats of Yisrael
Lieberman has been clear on what he wants - a secular government without Arabs. He reaffirmed his stance post election and thus for there is no
indication he changes his mind.
So that leaves JointList, Shas and UTJ out in the cold 13+9+8=30 seats.
Gantz cannot form a left wing secular government. Even if he convinced Democratic Union (Meratz, the progressive left) to sit with right wing
Lieberman (not much is impossible in Israeli politics) he has no majority - Blue and White, Yisrael Beitenu, Labor, DU - 52 seats.
Ehud Barak (former Prime Minister now head of the Democratic Union) brought up the idea of a minority left wing government tolerated by the Arabs
today but i think this is a pipedream.
Gantz already said today that he'll try to establish a unity Government. Obviously based on the numbers he wouldnt even need Lieberman to do that
since Likud and Blue and White have a clear majority. The easiest solution would be for Gantz and Netanyahu to work out a shared Premiership between
them - Netanyahu gets to be PM until he is forced to resign to face the courts and Gantz replaced him or something similar.
But it's Israeli politics. A lot of would depend on how skilled Gantz is at playing the game. So far he hasnt showed much promise in that regard.
He could try to split up Likud, get enough MKs to abandon Netanyahu and join a unity coalition with him and Lieberman. I doubt very much he would win
that fight against a skilled and ruthless politician like Netanyahu. He wont lose Likud without burning the house down IMO.
So say Netanyahu can hold out and Gantz fails to establish a unity coalition with Likud. Rivilin would eventually (by law) be forced to give Netanyahu
a try at forming a Government. Netanyahu too has options. He could try to pull over Labor-Gesher. Or ousting Gantz and/or break up Blue and White.
Not entirely likley but its a great game to play.
Anyway, I don’t think it was possible for Lieberman to screw Netanyahu more than he did. As ruthless a politician Bibi is, he beaten at his own game
by a Russian bouncer. Fun country.
edit on 18-9-2019 by mightmight because: (no reason given)