Operation Yellowhammer. Brexit and it's likely effects.

a reply to: Dwoodward85

Base scenario says to me this is how it will be on Day 1 No Deal, D1ND, it may get better but likely to be rough for quite a while.

a reply to: Dwoodward85

Probably best just not to crap on our own doorstep in the first place imho.

Shoot ourselves in the foot and then continue to solder on eh?

originally posted by: ScepticScot

All trade deals are done through the EU. EU is a customs union and single market.

I honestly didn't realize that.

So when the members of the royal family went to Saudi Arabia to sell them weapons, is that because the EU told them to go and the royals complied, or did the royals want to do it and had to get the EU's permission first?

originally posted by: VictorVonDoom

originally posted by: ScepticScot

All trade deals are done through the EU. EU is a customs union and single market.

I honestly didn't realize that.

So when the members of the royal family went to Saudi Arabia to sell them weapons, is that because the EU told them to go and the royals complied, or did the royals want to do it and had to get the EU's permission first?

Nothing stopping individual member States promoting trade. They just can't negotiate tariffs etc on a bilateral basis.

The morality of using royals to promote weapon sales is a whole different matter.

a reply to: ScepticScot

I'm a little confused now.

If Britain leaves the EU, then EU member nations can or cannot negotiate separate trade deals with Britain without going through the EU?

a reply to: ScepticScot

I'm a little confused now.

If Britain leaves the EU, then EU member nations can or cannot negotiate separate trade deals with Britain without going through the EU?

originally posted by: VictorVonDoom
a reply to: ScepticScot

I'm a little confused now.

If Britain leaves the EU, then EU member nations can or cannot negotiate separate trade deals with Britain without going through the EU?

Individual member states can't negotiate trade deals. Just be clear that means principles of how trade is conducted such as tariffs or safety standards.

Doesn't mean individual companies , even state-owned ones, can't trade or that governments can't promote their own countries goods.

a reply to: ScepticScot

OK. So the countries can still buy or sell, just no tariffs or safety standards. So how would that create the food or medicine shortages Yellowhammer anticipates?

If Britain is currently buying wheat from Germany and aspirin from France at a certain price, they should be able to keep doing it. As the importer, it certainly wouldn't make sense for Britain to impose tariffs on these imported goods. If Germany and France are getting what they consider a fair price now, there should be no reason to raise the prices of these goods, or lower their safety standards.

originally posted by: VictorVonDoom
a reply to: ScepticScot

OK. So the countries can still buy or sell, just no tariffs or safety standards. So how would that create the food or medicine shortages Yellowhammer anticipates?

If Britain is currently buying wheat from Germany and aspirin from France at a certain price, they should be able to keep doing it. As the importer, it certainly wouldn't make sense for Britain to impose tariffs on these imported goods. If Germany and France are getting what they consider a fair price now, there should be no reason to raise the prices of these goods, or lower their safety standards.

Because the day the UK leaves the UK.is no longer part of either the customs union or single market . That means goods going though the border need to be the checked, paper work completed etc.

After decades of membership the infrastructure to support that , physical or administrative, just doesn't exit on sufficient scale.

Getting that infrastructure will neither be quick nor cheap. It will also require an on going cost making goods more expensive.

a reply to: andy06shake

Re. Homelessness and austerity is not confined to the UK ....

Homelessness and housing problems reach crisis point in all EU countries – except Finland
A European housing body has warned that homelessness and exclusion from housing has reached crisis point in the majority of countries in the EU. European Union.

Feantsa, the European Federation of National Organisations Working with the Homeless, has released its second report on housing exclusion in Europe, in conjunction with French housing charity Fondation Abbé Pierre. The report highlights “alarming evidence of rising homelessness” and calls for EU member states to put eliminating homelessness at the core of their social policy agendas.

The report says homelessness is rising in all European countries except Finland, and singles out cities such as London, Paris, Brussels, Dublin, Vienna, Athens, Warsaw and Barcelona as places where the housing system is particularly under strain. In London, the number of families in temporary accommodation has increased by 50% since 2010, and in Copenhagen, youth homelessness has increased by 75% since 2009. Warsaw saw an increase of 37% of people sleeping rough or in emergency shelters since 2013, and one in 70 people in Athens are now homeless, most have become so since 2011.

The UK and the Netherlands are among those whose situation has worsened since the organisations’ first report in 2015, but almost all countries have serious flaws and problems in their housing systems.

For poor young people across Europe, the situation is becoming increasingly prevalent, with 65% in Germany, 78% in Denmark and 58% in the UK spending more than 40% of their disposable income on housing. The average in the EU is 48%.

www.theguardian.com...

So It can't be all down to the Tories?

Seems the Great EU is not immune from the austerity and homelessness either.

a reply to: RexKramerPRT

That's been my opinion all along. No one in their right mind would say that with a no deal there won't be any trouble, problems etc. BUT I do think it'll get better and better. I heard a bloke on TV this morning (sky news) who said roughly that there will no doubt be problems if no deal becomes a fact and that day one we will see many issues but that isn't to say the end result would be in any way negative, the main part and something I'll quote is this: "...we have to bring ourselves together, we have to push forward and do what we need to do to make a success of whatever outcome happens to fall on our houses. If its no deal then we'll deal with it. If it's a deal then we'll deal with that. Either way we must deal with it" and I agree with him.

a reply to: andy06shake

Didn't say it would go well from day one but it will eventually. Deal or No Deal it'll go along and we will make a go of it. I'm tired of seeing people wave the negative flag when it comes to the UK. Of all the things we're great at Brits always muddle through. Fear of the unknown is what we're dealing with. Remember one important fact right now, we're doing better than the EU power house (growth) right now and that's after the vote which remember was supposed to bring about a recession etc. etc. from the results alone.

The EU isn't the way of the future imho. They cannot allow us to be able to succeed from it because if they do we will see things change for them and more countries will want to leave and the EU will start to crumble...which I actually don't want to see because as it crumbles those who sit at the head of the table won't like that and when people with power become scared they get desperate and don't ask my why or how but I'm starting to see something dark in the EUs future.

originally posted by: Aldolas
a reply to: ManFromEurope

Someone posted in another thread that the UK is the 5th largest, on wiki it's the 4th.

The gist is: UK is not a tiny island in front of continental Europe. It is a large economy that needs to be reckoned with and should be respected and must respect itself.

It should leave Europe as the proud nation that it once used to be and become a good trading partner.


That is what the people voted for. And that is what must be done. This spineless crap is embarrassing

Exactly. According to the United Nations the UK has the fifth largest GDP in the world, while the World Bank and International Monetary Fund reckon it’s the sixth largest. Only Germany has a larger GDP among EU members. Also, the World Bank estimates 30.5 percent of the UK’s economy is driven by exports and 31.9 percent from imports. It’s a major player in global trade and the EU would end up hurting itself as well as the UK if it retaliates.

Recieving reports from several patients at different hospitals around the UK of a possible major disaster over no-deal trade impact.

Several UK hospitals has already run out of iodine (i - 131) used to treat/trace various cancers (mainly thyroid) with no information on when new stock will be received and operations/treatment delayed indefinitely as it's imported from France and has a shelf life of a week from production to injection otherwise it's useless.

Hopefully a cancer charity may have a watch list of areas and medications affected and emerging supply chain issues as the government, hospitals and hospital pharmacy's are keeping schtum/not making the public aware (under national security/secrecy law abuse as was/is done with life saving epilepsy medications, painkillers, sedatives etc..).

Hilarious

Worst case scenario

Essentially this is like planing for a cat5 hurricane hitting Mew York

Not likely at all but possible

Spoiler: it’s horse poop

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
Hilarious

Worst case scenario

Essentially this is like planing for a cat5 hurricane hitting Mew York

Not likely at all but possible

Spoiler: it’s horse poop

For the most part is is, but many of the no-deal trials have been complete failures - I've lost count of the ammount of times Ihe UK has run out of my Epillepsy meds, pain killers and sedative/tranquiliers/ sub bucal midozolam (Severe Epillepsy with Status Epilipticus can only take one brand of drug which is made by Sanofi in France) and require paramedics to inject me with midozolam to stop seizure, do CPR, restart my heart and try and mimimise brain death.

see Royal College of Radiologists, British Nuclear Medicine Society, Royal College of Neurologists trial results and the letter sent to Boris Johnson from the above and report of trial runs:

----
The groups want reassurances that "reported customs delays at East Midlands Airport will not happen in future".

Because only a small number of lorry drivers are licensed to transport such radioactive materials, any delays can have knock-on effects.

"This means that any consignment which is late through customs may not make the timed delivery run, and there are no licensed people for a back-up delivery run," said John Buscombe, president of British Nuclear Medicine Society (BNMS) and one of the letter's signatories.

About 25 years ago, the laws changed so only specially trained people who hold a license can transport radioisotopes. The letter asks if more will be trained to cope with delays and changes to schedules.

The medical groups say raising these issues is not scaremongering but trying to pre-empt potentially avoidable problems before they harm patient care. For example, the BNMS said, at least one patient in Scotland had been unable to receive treatment for liver cancer on the planned day during the delivery trial as the radioisotopes had arrived too late.
"Any delay could mean too little of a product arrives at a hospital - meaning fewer patients will be able to be scanned or treated, or a radioisotope shipment might not be able to be used at all," Dr Buscombe said.

Nicola Strickland, president of the Royal College of Radiologists, said despite planning she was "still concerned."
---------

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
Hilarious

Worst case scenario

Essentially this is like planing for a cat5 hurricane hitting Mew York

Not likely at all but possible

Spoiler: it’s horse poop

Its actually the "base case"

The leaked document called it the "base case" yet now its been turned into "the worse case"

Makes me think that actually the gov are hiding something.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
Hilarious

Worst case scenario

Essentially this is like planing for a cat5 hurricane hitting Mew York

Not likely at all but possible

Spoiler: it’s horse poop

Its actually the "base case"

The leaked document called it the "base case" yet now its been turned into "the worse case"

Makes me think that actually the gov are hiding something.

When you read the assumptions there isnt anything unrealistic in it.

It talks about us leaving without any deal, at a time when there are additional risks of disruption from weather etc.

That isn't an outlandish scenario, it's the current plan of the government.

originally posted by: Joneselius
Worst case.


Why are so many people foaming at the mouth for Britain to fall? Even British people. The left are salivating over this, it's like a wet dream.

Britain will be fine, prosperous even. They're terrified of a prosperous Britain outside of the EU because leftists are global-headed idiots who think that more people = more equals.

Seriously ATS, Britain will be fine. We'll trade with you guys in the US, why not!

Come on you little Englanders, where's your spines.

Hopefully that's the way the .majority see it.

What pussy cats

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
Its actually the "base case"
The leaked document called it the "base case" yet now its been turned into "the worse case"

What does "base case" mean to you then?
For me, it means that it doesn't take into account any contingency plans the government are working on, it doesn't take into account business sense; i.e. businesses using different ports to ship goods etc, nor does it include technology that can be implemented, or new trade deals with other countries, or getting our fishing waters back which will increase fresh fish!

So yes, it is the worst case scenario, i.e. Project Fear.