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Agency reverses course on Trump's Alabama hurricane claim

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posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:17 AM
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originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Extorris

Supporting the President's policies does not necessarily equate to panicking whenever he says panic. We're not that dumb... we're plenty smart enough to make people like you underestimate us.


I never accused Alabamans of being dumb?
I pointed out that the state ranks as one of the least educated in the country.
Lack of education creates ignorance, not stupidity.

Put another way
Ignorance is a lack of awareness.
Stupidity is being aware but not having the ability to understand.

Ignorance can be rectified through explanation and knowledge (education).
Stupidity can not be rectified through knowledge or explanation.

Believing that "Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated." by Hurricane Dorian as Trump Tweeted on September 1st was ignorance.

Trump and his supporters continuing to believe and defending that statement as true at the time, despite all facts and evidence to the contrary is stupidity.

No political movement should demand it's followers either be or appear to be stupid.

I am always surprised by the effectiveness of Identity-Politics. Divide nation into threat and defender and convince them you are the only one that can defend them. We defend our core self-identity, the beliefs we think define us, more fiercely than if we were physically attacked. A Billionaire con-man has convinced a third of the country he is JUST LIKE YOU

Before big data and ML, Karl Rove simply tapped into issues like Gay Marriage and Abortion to divide and defend and he became a minor God to political analysts and their bosses. It seems so quaint now. Cambridge Analytica bragged in 2016 it had 5000 personality indicator data points on every American and a nationwide digital platform to deploy targeted messaging. Now Trump's rhetoric is coded to motivate and engage across dozens of emotive pressure points.

The Trump era has been an amazing experiment in the effectiveness of Identity-Politics. Divide first into threat and defender. Push all the buttons. Facts don't matter when it is your very core identity that you are defending and are told is under attack.

Trumpinian Identity Politics has succeeded in getting Evangelicals to defend the infidelity of man who cheated on his wife with a porn star after the birth of his fifth child by his third wife.

It has gotten the Republican party to ignore record breaking deficits and entirely abandon it's premise of Fiscal Conservatism.

Trumpinian Identity Politics (He is just like you and defending you) even means he can take a weather map, draw on it with a magic marker and make a false claim and his followers will believe and defend it as fact!

It is both fascinating and sad to watch. He is able to make otherwise smart followers actually choose "stupid"...cuz Trump is just like you and is your defender against the other.




posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:18 AM
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originally posted by: MetalThunder
The GAME being played is called "Bias by ommision"

When evaluating a source, look for Bias by Omission. It will give you a good idea where this source leans and what their motivations are.


Coast Guard rear admiral defends Trump from storm of backlash after Alabama forecast


In a statement disseminated by the White House on Thursday, homeland security and counterterrorism adviser Peter Brown argued the president was correct in addressing the "potential impact" on several states, including Alabama.

"As the Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Advisor, I briefed President Donald J. Trump multiple times concerning the position, forecast, risks, and Federal Government preparations for and response to Hurricane Dorian," his statement read. "I showed the President the official National Hurricane Center forecast, which included the 'cone' that projects the potential path of the eye of the storm. The president and I also reviewed other products, including multiple meteorological models (often called the 'spaghetti models') and graphics that displayed the time of onset and geographical range of tropical storm force winds, storm surge, and rainfall. These products showed possible storm impacts well outside the official forecast cone."

"While speaking to the press on Sunday, September 1, the President address Hurricane Dorian and its potential impact on multiple states, including Alabama. The President's comments were based on that morning's Hurricane Dorian briefing, which included the possibility of tropical storm force winds in southeastern Alabama," Brown said. "In fact, from the evening of Tuesday, August 27, until the morning of Monday, September 2, forecasts from the National Hurricane Center showed the possibility of tropical storm force winds hitting parts of Alabama."......




Indeed - backed up by NOAA's own data at the time.
The lies by Trump haters are just astounding.
They need to get their heads around the fact that their President is going to be updated to a FAR greater level than they could ever be.



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:21 AM
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a reply to: TheRedneck

That forecast however was about 4 days before Trump's tweet. The information he gave was far out dated.

Yes, it is common for storms to hit the peninsula then the panhandle of Florida, however when Trump made his tweet,(Sept 1st) literally every computer model and every expert forecast showed the panhandle and Alabama were well outside the cone of uncertainty.

Had Trump said what we did say the 28th of August, then he would be correct. Using 3-4 day old data does not work for hurricane forecast(or any weather forecast).

If Trump simply admitted he was wrong, that would be a non- issue.

Remember the NWS in Birmingham, Alabama issued a statement refuting Trump and declared Dorian was not a threat to Alabama.

Here is a good article about the issue which is upsetting a lot of people at NOAA and meteorologists around the US:


NOAA draws backlash after disavowing Weather Service tweet that refuted Trump




A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) statement affirming President Trump's remarks over the threat of Hurricane Dorian to Alabama is drawing sharp backlash from meteorologists and former officials.

Several former officials have accused the administration of caving to political pressure after NOAA disavowed a days-old tweet from the National Weather Service (NWS) that refuted Trump's claim about the storm's path.

Trump spent several days defending himself while criticizing pushback from the media and meteorologists who questioned his claim while noting that numerous projections showed the storm tracking farther east.

Former NOAA Chief Operating Officer David Titley blasted the NOAA statement, saying it represented "perhaps the darkest day ever for @noaa leadership."

"Don’t know how they will ever look their workforce in the eye again. Moral cowardice," he tweeted.

Monica Medina, who worked as NOAA’s general counsel, tweeted Friday, “As a former @NOAA leader I can say two things with certainty. No NOAA Administrator I worked for would have done this. And I would have quit if I had been directed to agree to let this BS go out.”

Dan Sobien, head of the National Weather Service Employees Organization, which represents thousands of workers under NOAA, said federal workers were "shocked, stunned and irate" with NOAA siding with Trump.

edit on 9-9-2019 by jrod because: Sorry for the long snipp

edit on 9-9-2019 by jrod because: Fix snip



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:25 AM
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originally posted by: Extorris

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Extorris

Supporting the President's policies does not necessarily equate to panicking whenever he says panic. We're not that dumb... we're plenty smart enough to make people like you underestimate us.



Believing that "Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated." by Hurricane Dorian as Trump Tweeted on September 1st was ignorance.



That was not the tweet... in the true style of a propagandist you ommitted some of the tweet,
Here:

In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!


Now you could argue that the term 'most likely' being used for Alabama is incorrect, but not the 'harder than anticipated'... because going from no chance of hurricane storm force winds to a 20% chance, is harder than anticpated.

Frankly, to avoid having to admit you're utterly wrong to have jumped on the propaganda hate machine of the MSM, you have to get into parsing a tweet. That should tell you something, but I know it won't.

In future, please could you not post partial tweets to spin a narrative? Pretty please?



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:27 AM
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originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: TheRedneck

That forecast however was about 4 days before Trump's tweet. The information he gave was far out dated.



Why do you conmtinue to lie so blatantly when the NOAA's own reporting can be clearly shown on August 31st and September 1st - 1 day before and on the day of Trump's tweet?

Your lies will not be tolerated by silence, no matter how many times you try it on.

This will be posted every time you try your lies, so people can check themselves the NOAA's actual reports from the time - not after the event:

I can easily check their twitter feed where it shows on August 31st a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds in Alabama twitter.com... Thats the day before Trump's tweet. NOT 4 days.

Moreover, I can see on the same timeline that there was still a reported 10% chance of tropical storm force winds hitting Alabama reported on Sep 1st, the DAY Trump tweeted. twitter.com...


edit on 9/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:31 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

I literally linked you forecast from those days.

By August 30th it was clear that Dorian would not be a Gulf Coast threat.

Why can you not actually look at the archived data, instead of accusing me of being a liar?

It is like you are intentionally trying to spread disinformation.



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:32 AM
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originally posted by: Sookiechacha
a reply to: Arnie123




He did damn good


LOL...What? LOL

What did he do, other than play golf, get the weather forecast wrong, faking a map with a sharpie, and then look for toadies to do his bidding to change history, by throwing weather scientists under the bus?






He triggered you, yet again, so that makes it all worth it.



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:33 AM
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originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: UKTruth

I literally linked you forecast from those days.

By August 30th it was clear that Dorian would not be a Gulf Coast threat.

Why can you not actually look at the archived data, instead of accusing me of being a liar?

It is like you are intentionally trying to spread disinformation.


I literally gave you the links to what the NOAA were reporting on those days.
Again:

I can easily check their twitter feed where it shows on August 31st a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds in Alabama twitter.com... Thats the day before Trump's tweet. NOT 4 days. Moreover, I can see on the same timeline that there was still a reported 10% chance of tropical storm force winds hitting Alabama reported on Sep 1st, the DAY Trump tweeted. twitter.com...


edit on 9/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:35 AM
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a reply to: Extorris


I never accused Alabamans of being dumb?

You implicated we were mindless sheep. That is far from the truth; if we were mindless sheep, we would be watching CNN and praising... umm... who is the MSM praising today? Last I heard they weren't happy with Biden.


I pointed out that the state ranks as one of the least educated in the country.

Which, if one considers that the United States in general ranks pretty darn low in that metric globally, is not really something to be crowing about. Not to mention the biggest problem with our education here is the high poverty rate, hardly something I think an "enlightened" person would choose to degrade over.

A bully might choose to do so...


Lack of education creates ignorance, not stupidity.

Agreed. Apparently one needs to be educated to truly achieve stupidity.

In any case, that was a well-informed back-down and a decent attempt at deflection. This ignorant redneck will not embarrass you with vector calculus just yet. I'm just not going to fall for the deflection either. I see no correlation between claims of identity politics and whether Trump had reason to believe there was enough chance of Dorian affecting Alabama to mention it. Well, except that those practicing the identity politics keep bringing them up...

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:40 AM
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originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Extorris

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Extorris

Supporting the President's policies does not necessarily equate to panicking whenever he says panic. We're not that dumb... we're plenty smart enough to make people like you underestimate us.



Believing that "Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated." by Hurricane Dorian as Trump Tweeted on September 1st was ignorance.



That was not the tweet... in the true style of a propagandist you ommitted some of the tweet,
Here:

In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!


Now you could argue that the term 'most likely' being used for Alabama is incorrect, but not the 'harder than anticipated'... because going from no chance of hurricane storm force winds to a 20% chance, is harder than anticpated.

Frankly, to avoid having to admit you're utterly wrong to have jumped on the propaganda hate machine of the MSM, you have to get into parsing a tweet. That should tell you something, but I know it won't.

In future, please could you not post partial tweets to spin a narrative? Pretty please?


Is there a reason you are lying about my post? I provided his entire tweet. Is lying a regular strategy of yours? Or was this error?


originally posted by: Extorris

Trumps Tweet

9:51 AM SEPT 1st 2019

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!

9:51 AM - Sep 1, 2019

[....]

The difference between a 5% risk that ANY winds what-so-ever would reach Alabama vs. "Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated"?



edit on 9-9-2019 by Extorris because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:42 AM
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a reply to: Extorris

Your words in the post I referenced:


Believing that "Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated." by Hurricane Dorian as Trump Tweeted on September 1st was ignorance.


www.abovetopsecret.com...

Partial tweet and an assumptive close on what others believe from Trump's tweet.
Poor form
Do better?


edit on 9/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:57 AM
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a reply to: jrod




It is like you are intentionally trying to spread disinformation.


Ya think? LOL

The gaslighting is strong in this thread.



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:58 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

Nope. You lied. And are now doubling down.

An apparently contagious form of dishonesty amongst certain Trumpites.



in the true style of a propagandist you ommitted some of the tweet,

[...]

In future, please could you not post partial tweets to spin a narrative?


My post included the full tweet. It's there for anyone with reading ability to read.

That is just a factual reality.



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 10:58 AM
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originally posted by: Sookiechacha
a reply to: jrod




It is like you are intentionally trying to spread disinformation.


Ya think? LOL

The gaslighting is strong in this thread.





Facts:

I can easily check their twitter feed where it shows on August 31st a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds in Alabama twitter.com... Thats the day before Trump's tweet. NOT 4 days.

Moreover, I can see on the same timeline that there was still a reported 10% chance of tropical storm force winds hitting Alabama reported on Sep 1st, the DAY Trump tweeted. twitter.com...[


Why don't we keep to those... just a suggestion.

edit on 9/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 11:00 AM
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originally posted by: Extorris
a reply to: UKTruth

Nope. You lied. And are now doubling down.

An apparently contagious form of dishonesty amongst certain Trumpites.



in the true style of a propagandist you ommitted some of the tweet,

[...]

In future, please could you not post partial tweets to spin a narrative?


My post included the full tweet. It's there for anyone with reading ability to read.

That is just a factual reality.




Nope:
This post:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Very clear for all to see.
No apology necessary.


edit on 9/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 11:07 AM
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a reply to: jrod


That forecast however was about 4 days before Trump's tweet. The information he gave was far out dated.

Yes, it was outdated.


Yes, it is common for storms to hit the peninsula then the panhandle of Florida, however when Trump made his tweet,(Sept 1st) literally every computer model and every expert forecast showed the panhandle and Alabama were well outside the cone of uncertainty.

On August 28th, NOAA had Dorian heading straight across Florida, which would have made concerns about the Gulf Coast reasonable.

On August 29th, NOAA still showed Dorian as heading directly onshore, but with a slight northwards trend.

On August 30th, that northward trend become more pronounced, but still covered the entirety of the Florida peninsula.

On August 31st, NOAA had completely changed its forecast to show the northward turn that would eventually occur.

Source: www.nhc.noaa.gov...

However, if you will recall the forecasts during that time, experts were stating that Florida was certainly not in the clear, and there was a good bit of uncertainty about the predicted paths. This change in forecasted path was unusual and quite severe, and was certainly not something I took for granted, nor did the rest of Alabama take it for granted. This was one of the few hurricanes I can recall making landfall anywhere in the Southeast that did not give us some rain from it at least, and I was expecting rain. Southern Alabama was not panicking as some would have you believe, but they were keeping a close eye on Dorian. Trump's tweet or press conference or whatever had nothing to do with that; prior experience with hurricanes and NHC data did.


Had Trump said what we did say the 28th of August, then he would be correct. Using 3-4 day old data does not work for hurricane forecast(or any weather forecast).

Actually, no, he would still be wrong. He was wrong, the NWS was wrong, NOAA was wrong, and the NHC was wrong. Everyone got it wrong this time. I think there was one local meteorologist named "Joe" (and I think it might have been you who mentioned him) that got it close.


If Trump simply admitted he was wrong, that would be a non- issue.

No, had Trump simply admitted he was wrong, it would have resulted in an old-fashioned lynching, complete with rope and noose. That's the problem. If people could give the slightest benefit of the doubt to this President, these ridiculous claims would not be happening. But as it is, people who support things which seem like common sense, things like protecting the borders, a good economy, and attempts at peace talks, would not feel they have to defend him at every turn or risk him being outed and the country returning to the disaster that was the Obama administration... or worse, based on recent comments by far left leaders.

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 11:51 AM
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a reply to: UKTruth

Even if the Sept. 1st report claimed that there was a 10% chance of Alabama getting some tropical force winds, which it didn't, that still doesn't excuse Trump's tweet claiming that Alabama was going to get hit "much" harder than expected.

Trump was wrong. So wrong that the Birmingham weather service issued a strong correction, contradicting Trump 20 minutes after his tweet.

It was at that point Trump knew he made a mistake, but was so enraged that underlings like weather scientists would contradict The Chosen One, that he started a false information weather war.

The man is losing it. I can't wait to see how many petty and stupid wars he starts once The House votes on impeachment hearings.


edit on 9-9-2019 by Sookiechacha because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 11:59 AM
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originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Extorris
a reply to: UKTruth

Nope. You lied. And are now doubling down.

An apparently contagious form of dishonesty amongst certain Trumpites.



in the true style of a propagandist you ommitted some of the tweet,

[...]

In future, please could you not post partial tweets to spin a narrative?


My post included the full tweet. It's there for anyone with reading ability to read.

That is just a factual reality.




Nope:
This post:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Very clear for all to see.
No apology necessary.



Nope.

This Post:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Very clearly included his full tweet.

I omitted nothing.

And my excerpt that followed as it related to Alabama was verbatim.

None of the rest of his tweet altered the meaning.

It is a strange dishonest tactic you are employing, but not surprising.


FROM MY POST:




originally posted by: Extorris

Trumps Tweet

9:51 AM SEPT 1st 2019

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!

9:51 AM - Sep 1, 2019

[....]

"Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated"?


I will wait for you to tell me the difference in meaning between those two quotes as it relates to Trumps fake-magic-marker map including Alabama.



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 12:32 PM
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originally posted by: Sookiechacha
a reply to: UKTruth

Even if the Sept. 1st report claimed that there was a 10% chance of Alabama getting some tropical force winds, which it didn't, that still doesn't excuse Trump's tweet claiming that Alabama was going to get hit "much" harder than expected.

Trump was wrong. So wrong that the Birmingham weather service issued a strong correction, contradicting Trump 20 minutes after his tweet.

It was at that point Trump knew he made a mistake, but was so enraged that underlings like weather scientists would contradict The Chosen One, that he started a false information weather war.

The man is losing it. I can't wait to see how many petty and stupid wars he starts once The House votes on impeachment hearings.



A 10% chance is still a chance - and yes, on Spet 1st that IS what the NOAA reported.
The fact it never materialised is irrelevant.
Forecasts can be wrong.
The fact is there was a risk, reported by the NOAA at the time, and Trump informed the people.

edit on 9/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 9 2019 @ 12:34 PM
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a reply to: Extorris

Nope.
That was not the post I was referring to.
The one I was referring to was linked. I'll do so again.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Having an older post that had the full tweet, does not excuse a later partial tweet wrapped in an assumption on how others read the tweet.

Own it.




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