It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

Agency reverses course on Trump's Alabama hurricane claim

page: 12
41
<< 9  10  11    13  14 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 09:39 AM
link   

originally posted by: Sookiechacha

originally posted by: MonkeyFishFrog
a reply to: scrounger

No, he almost caused a panic in Alabama. It's the same reason why freedom of speech doesn't cover yelling fire in a movie theater.


And, why it's illegal to put out a false weather report.



Wow

Just wow!!! Where did that come from !!!

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!


edit on 10-9-2019 by mikell because: (no reason given)




posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 09:46 AM
link   

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: TheRedneck

The NHC did a great job with Dorian. Appropriate watches and warnings were issued and Florida missed hurricane conditions by literally a few miles. Their 72 hour forecast were pretty darn good.

Alabama was never part of the cone of uncertainty. Here is what it looked like at 5am on September 1st:



This was about 9 hours before he declared Alabama was part of the danger zone. I do not know how one can justify Trump's tweet on September 1 given the information available.


Every advisory has a date and time on it - you clipped it off the bottom .... LoL
- Bias By Omission -



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 09:52 AM
link   
a reply to: mikell

Trump may have broken federal law by altering Hurricane Dorian's path on a map to validate his false claim that it could hit Alabama www.msn.com... -it-could-hit-alabama/ar-AAGOdUv


"Whoever knowingly issues or publishes any counterfeit weather forecast or warning of weather conditions falsely representing such forecast or warning to have been issued or published by the Weather Bureau, United States Signal Service, or other branch of the Government service, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ninety days, or both," the statute reads.
www.law.cornell.edu...

I can't imagine why it would be illegal to punk the public through a hurricane prediction!



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 09:58 AM
link   
a reply to: MetalThunder

That was not intentional....i will try to find the full copy. It clearly states 5am Sunday where the X is.

Unreal that I provide the actual forecast map from Sunday, September 1st....Only to have someone accuse it of being doctored. Confirmation bias anyone?
edit on 10-9-2019 by jrod because:




posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 10:13 AM
link   
a reply to: MetalThunder

Here is the full image with the dates, also added the the 11am and 5pm Saturday August 31st forecast graphic.

Over 24 hours before Trump's tweet, Alabama was no where close to the cone of uncertainty.

5am 1Sept:


5pm 31Aug:


11am 31Aug:



edit on 10-9-2019 by jrod because: Fix pic



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 10:40 AM
link   

originally posted by: TheRedneck

It was a minor error, completely understandable given the uncertainties involved at the time, and does not warrant 10 pages of back and forth.


A "minor error" that required him calling a press conference to show a doctored weather map to convince reporters he did not make an error?

A "minor error" that required having his commerce secretary threaten NOAA employees with firing for correcting the error?

Holy crap. Trump thinks he is the Chosen One, like Little Kim and this is North Korea.

No one gives a crap about Trump making a mistake.

It is the insane inability to admit it, the lying, threats, falsifying of government documents etc. etc.

SANE Trump Response:
"Apparently only the SE corner of Alabama has a 20% chance at most, 5% as of now, of feeling any winds from Dorian. I misspoke when I said it would very likely get hit and much harder than expected. Stay safe everyone!"

INSANE Trump response:
Fire whoever in Birmingham sent out that tweet correcting MY Forecast!!
Get me a map that shows I am right!!...What the hell is this??? Get me a black magic marker!!
I swear if you don't find someone at NOAA to tweet that I was right, I am going to fire you, them, everyone!!




edit on 10-9-2019 by Extorris because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 12:10 PM
link   
a reply to: jrod

I in no way disparage the NHC. I am, rather, thankful for them. However, the NHC itself admits that their forecasts have a possibility of inaccuracy, as earlier ones of Dorian did. Hurricanes can strike outside the cone of uncertainty, and I have often seen watches issued outside the cone of uncertainty.

I also understand that it is popular to make any statement by the current President into something more than it is. That seems to have become a national pastime. I simply do not agree that A. the warning given by President Trump caused any problems whatsoever, and B. that we need to silence future warnings over fear that their statements might be proven inaccurate in hindsight and lead to undesirable political consequences.

That last reason is the exact same reason I do not fault the NHC in any way. As I stated, if I am to fault Trump for getting it wrong on September 1, then I also have to fault the NHC and others for getting it wrong prior to that date. I will not do that. We need the forecasts to be as accurate as possible, but moreso we need the forecasts to be available quickly.

This is the middle, not the end, of hurricane season. We have actually had a very quiet year to date, but I feel certain there will be more. How will you feel if one of those other hurricanes appears to be headed to Cocoa Beach, but because of this argument warnings are withheld to be sure until the last moment, and some people do not have time to properly respond?

I do not want that on my conscience. Others may, but I pray they do not achieve their goal and cause hurricane warnings to be withheld from the public due to concerns over potential inaccuracy. Getting President Trump at any cost is simply not as important to me as saving lives.

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 12:15 PM
link   
a reply to: Extorris


No one gives a crap about Trump making a mistake.

I assume that's why there are now 12 pages in this one thread roasting him over it.

I'd say someone gives quite a bit of crap over it.

BTW, did you find those reports of Alabamians running through the streets screaming in panic over Dorian yet?

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 12:17 PM
link   
a reply to: jrod


Note: the cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.


It's at the top of every screenshot.

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 12:23 PM
link   

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: TheRedneck

The NHC did a great job with Dorian. Appropriate watches and warnings were issued and Florida missed hurricane conditions by literally a few miles. Their 72 hour forecast were pretty darn good.

Alabama was never part of the cone of uncertainty. Here is what it looked like at 5am on September 1st:



This was about 9 hours before he declared Alabama was part of the danger zone. I do not know how one can justify Trump's tweet on September 1 given the information available.


As i said, your lies will not go unanswered.
You image is one of several - and on it you will note it says "Hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone.

The full picture including probabilities of Hurricane Storm Force winds and their likliehood to hot certain areas was published at the time by NOAA.

Repeat:

I can easily check their twitter feed where it shows on August 31st a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds in Alabama twitter.com... Thats the day before Trump's tweet. NOT 4 days.

Moreover, I can see on the same timeline that there was still a reported 10% chance of tropical storm force winds hitting Alabama reported on Sep 1st, the DAY Trump tweeted. twitter.com...


Your lies will be countered with facts no matter how many times you try to tell them.

edit on 10/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)

edit on 10/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 12:24 PM
link   
a reply to: jrod

Not correct.
Additional information was provided by NOAA at teh time:

www.abovetopsecret.com...



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 12:33 PM
link   
a reply to: TheRedneck

Yet Alabama was about 150 miles outside the cone when this happened. It also prompted the NWS in Birmingham, AL to issue this tweet:


Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east. #alwx


Do you think they were wrong to give Alabama the all clear?



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 12:35 PM
link   
a reply to: UKTruth

So Trump is right and the NWS in Birmingham, AL is wrong?

Hurricane winds probability maps:
2pm 31Aug:


8am 1Sept:


Once again, how can a reasonable person believe Alabama was in danger from Hurricane Dorian given the information available on the afternoon of Sept. 1st?

I'm done with this thread. Those wind speed probability graphics are extremely misleading. Pretty much you guys are trying to say the NWS in Birmingham was wrong to give Alabama the all clear, even though all meteorologists I know of fully support what they wrote.

Trump made this an issue by obsessing over it. To make things worse he threatened to fire senior officials at NOAA unless they backed him up.
edit on 10-9-2019 by jrod because: Add

edit on 10-9-2019 by jrod because: Add imagrs



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 12:57 PM
link   
a reply to: jrod


Do you think they were wrong to give Alabama the all clear?

In hindsight, they were one of the few to be correct.

I think they were lucky.


Trump made this an issue by obsessing over it. To make things worse he threatened to fire senior officials at NOAA unless they backed him up.

You have no evidence to back that up. The head of the NWS made that statement. Donald Trump, for all his supposed omnipotence, did not issue that statement; Wilbur Ross did.

As I said above, the Birmingham NWS got lucky. Had there been damage in Alabama, had, for instance, Dorian moved far enough inland to break up before turning north, the physical size of the storm would have expanded quickly and likely affected some parts of Alabama. Issuing an all clear while that was still a possibility was far worse, IMO, than suggesting there is still a possibility and to remain aware. Given that possibility, I think as NWS Director, I would have been upset as well.

Given your knowledge and abilities to analyze these storms, I am surprised you don't agree with that.

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 01:14 PM
link   
a reply to: TheRedneck

Trump was wrong on this one. He could have moved on, but he would not let it do. There is no denying that.

I was wrong when I thought Dorian was an imminent threat to Florida. Fortunately for us, it is was just another close call. At one point every reliable computer model had it striking Florida.

www.politico.com...


Trump drags his Alabama hurricane claims into 6th day

Donald Trump isn't letting it go.

The president on Friday continued to defend his misleading prognostication for the path of Hurricane Dorian, assailing the news media and in the process, digging in and reviving the controversy for a sixth day......


www.nytimes.com...


WASHINGTON — The Secretary of Commerce threatened to fire top employees at the federal scientific agency responsible for weather forecasts last Friday after the agency’s Birmingham office contradicted President Trump’s claim that Hurricane Dorian might hit Alabama, according to three people familiar with the discussion.


Also of note, if you go by the tropical storm wind probability map for Dorian, every state on the East Coast was in green(10%+), plus Tennesee, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Vermont.

It is a highly misleading chart if read the wrong way.
edit on 10-9-2019 by jrod because: Add nyt

edit on 10-9-2019 by jrod because: Cellphones suck to write with



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 01:39 PM
link   

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Extorris


No one gives a crap about Trump making a mistake.

I assume that's why there are now 12 pages in this one thread roasting him over it.



He is being roasted for his willingness to fake government documents, threaten to fire people and throwing a full on tantrum that anyone pointed out his mistake. Trump's current mental state makes Kim Jong-Un look like a reasonable person....


edit on 10-9-2019 by Extorris because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 01:52 PM
link   

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: UKTruth

So Trump is right and the NWS in Birmingham, AL is wrong?

Hurricane winds probability maps:
2pm 31Aug:


8am 1Sept:


Once again, how can a reasonable person believe Alabama was in danger from Hurricane Dorian given the information available on the afternoon of Sept. 1st?

I'm done with this thread. Those wind speed probability graphics are extremely misleading. Pretty much you guys are trying to say the NWS in Birmingham was wrong to give Alabama the all clear, even though all meteorologists I know of fully support what they wrote.

Trump made this an issue by obsessing over it. To make things worse he threatened to fire senior officials at NOAA unless they backed him up.


To once again refute your lies - you are not actually presenting the reports that the NOAA DID show affecting Alabama - AT THE TIME AND STILL AVAILABLE ON THEIR TWITTER FEED - which Ihave linked.

But , for the avoidance of doubt.




Just stop.

At the time, I am showing you the NOAA were reporting that Alabama had the risk of Hurricane Storm Force winds of 39mph +

The NOAA have said Trump was correct.

The second of the above charts is on the DAY Trump tweeted...about 5hrs prior to the TWEET.

Your lies about 4 day old data will not carry without response. We can keep going forever.
There is nothing you can do to wriggle away from the actual data published and STILL searchable on the NOAA Twitter feed - however hard you might try.

edit on 10/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 03:49 PM
link   
a reply to: UKTruth

Im not lying. Im presenting factual information based on what the meteorological world was saying at the time.

As I said before, the tropical storm force winds graphic is misleading as at sometime it also included every state on the East Coast plus Tennessee, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Vermont. Clearly no one in their right mind would be saying those states were at risk from Dorian. No one with any understanding of weather forecasting would have considered Alabama in danger after the end of August.

It was around the 28th or 29th that it became apparent that Dorian would be as East coast only strike. If Trump sought advice from the pros before tapping away on his iPhone, this would be a non issue.

That said the NHC will not issue tropical storm watches and warnings unless that chart shows at least a 50% chance in extreme cases, generally it will be about 70%.

Alabama was never threatened by Dorian. To say it was shows a complete lack of understanding how weather forecasting works.

But go ahead and pretend Trump is never wrong and the NWS in Birmingham are the idiots who gave Alabama a premature all clear!
edit on 10-9-2019 by jrod because: F

edit on 10-9-2019 by jrod because: West virginia



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 04:37 PM
link   

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: UKTruth

Im not lying. Im presenting factual information based on what the meteorological world was saying at the time.

As I said before, the tropical storm force winds graphic is misleading as at sometime it also included every state on the East Coast plus Tennessee, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Vermont. Clearly no one in their right mind would be saying those states were at risk from Dorian. No one with any understanding of weather forecasting would have considered Alabama in danger after the end of August.

It was around the 28th or 29th that it became apparent that Dorian would be as East coast only strike. If Trump sought advice from the pros before tapping away on his iPhone, this would be a non issue.

That said the NHC will not issue tropical storm watches and warnings unless that chart shows at least a 50% chance in extreme cases, generally it will be about 70%.

Alabama was never threatened by Dorian. To say it was shows a complete lack of understanding how weather forecasting works.

But go ahead and pretend Trump is never wrong and the NWS in Birmingham are the idiots who gave Alabama a premature all clear!


Nope.
The forecast predictions that Alabama could be hit were the SAME day as Trump tweeted. FACT. Not from me, but the NOAA themselves - at the time.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I see you now say that those particular reports (as opposed to the ones you look at - from the same agency,lol) are 'misleading'.
You've gone from a bare faced lie that Trump was using information that was 4 days old, to now saying he was using 'misleading' information because your original lie has been outed? Cute.

..and then we have this:



In a statement disseminated by the White House on Thursday, homeland security and counterterrorism adviser Peter Brown argued the president was correct in addressing the "potential impact" on several states, including Alabama.

"As the Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Advisor, I briefed President Donald J. Trump multiple times concerning the position, forecast, risks, and Federal Government preparations for and response to Hurricane Dorian," his statement read. "I showed the President the official National Hurricane Center forecast, which included the 'cone' that projects the potential path of the eye of the storm. The president and I also reviewed other products, including multiple meteorological models (often called the 'spaghetti models') and graphics that displayed the time of onset and geographical range of tropical storm force winds, storm surge, and rainfall. These products showed possible storm impacts well outside the official forecast cone."

"While speaking to the press on Sunday, September 1, the President address Hurricane Dorian and its potential impact on multiple states, including Alabama. The President's comments were based on that morning's Hurricane Dorian briefing, which included the possibility of tropical storm force winds in southeastern Alabama," Brown said. "In fact, from the evening of Tuesday, August 27, until the morning of Monday, September 2, forecasts from the National Hurricane Center showed the possibility of tropical storm force winds hitting parts of Alabama."......


The above was already provided to you by another poster. You ignored it as it eviscerates your lies.

Just stop it - you've got nowhere to turn.



edit on 10/9/2019 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 10 2019 @ 05:51 PM
link   
a reply to: jrod

Your confusion is believing those you are corresponding with are searching for the truth.

Obfuscation, deflection and dishonesty are their tools.

They know it just as well as you do.

They understand the facts and circumstances, they just ... don't ...care.

It's a worthy exercise to provide the facts, but once those are ignored, move on because the rest is BS and Trolling.







 
41
<< 9  10  11    13  14 >>

log in

join