Agency reverses course on Trump's Alabama hurricane claim

originally posted by: TheRedneck
This ignorant redneck will not embarrass you with vector calculus just yet. I'm just not going to fall for the deflection either.

There is so much bizarre irony in this statement it should be your tagline.
Deflection? Let me know what Vector Mathematics has to do with Trump's magic marker antics and get back to me.

I see no correlation between claims of identity politics and whether Trump had reason to believe there was enough chance of Dorian affecting Alabama to mention it.

Oh, I am not doubting that Trump thought Dorian would "Most Likely" hit Alabama "(much) harder than anticipated".

That confusion is not just possible, but likely when he has the attention span of a gnat and spent that day Golfing in Virginia while the Hurricane was heading toward Florida.
He was wrong. He had no maps or information that supported that view. The worst case map for Alabama from 4 days earlier (9 Presidential updates earlier?) only had a 10-20% chance Alabama would feel ANY effects at all.

Identity Politics come into play when Trumpites have been so thoroughly manipulated to invest themselves in a Billionaire Con Man Politician that they would rather be viewed as incapable of understanding basic facts and reality than admit a president lied.

While we are at it...Here he said at one point there was a 95% probability that Alabama was going to get hit very hard?



Anyone care to show me a map that shows that probability?

* Sane people...those not vulnerable to Trump's con-man ways..simply recognize that once someone needs to sneak out the "magic-marker" to alter official weather maps, they are full of BS.

THAT is where identity politics comes into play.

a reply to: Extorris

originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris

Right.

Out of the several dozen of projections over days, THAT map is actually the worst case scenario for Alabama and 4 days prior to Trump's tweet.

Even in that prediction which existed only for a few hours before being revised, it had an 80% chance that Alabama would feel no effects what-so-ever.

originally posted by: Extorris

originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris

Right.

Out of the several dozen of projections over days, THAT map is actually the worst case scenario for Alabama and 4 days prior to Trump's tweet.

Even in that prediction which existed only for a few hours before being revised, it had an 80% chance that Alabama would feel no effects what-so-ever.

Nope, the NOAA published forecasts on the 31st and the 1st Sep that had a 20% and a 10%, respectively, chance of Tropical storm force winds (>=39mph) hitting Alabama.

You've been shown to be wrong time and time again.
Your '4 days old' pretence has been shown conclusively to be a lie.

I can easily check their twitter feed where it shows on August 31st a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds in Alabama twitter.com... Thats the day before Trump's tweet. NOT 4 days.

Moreover, I can see on the same timeline that there was still a reported 10% chance of tropical storm force winds hitting Alabama reported on Sep 1st, the DAY Trump tweeted. twitter.com...

You are not entitled to change reality in support of your Trump bashing.

Roy Rogers's Horse still on the loose 😃

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Extorris

originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris

Right.

Out of the several dozen of projections over days, THAT map is actually the worst case scenario for Alabama and 4 days prior to Trump's tweet.

Even in that prediction which existed only for a few hours before being revised, it had an 80% chance that Alabama would feel no effects what-so-ever.

Nope, the NOAA published forecasts on the 31st and the 1st Sep that had a 20% and a 10%, respectively, chance of Tropical storm force winds (>=39mph) hitting Alabama.

You've been shown to be wrong time and time again.

I said that Map was the worst case scenario. I did not say it was the only map to show risk of winds.

While "forecasts on the 31st and the 1st Sep that had a 20% and a 10%, respectively" it was over a smaller portion than the earlier map...thus the other map was the worst case scenario.

20% chance of winds is 80% chance of no winds ..or is that too complicated for you?

Does 80% likelihood of Alabama seeing no effects (95% likelihood of seeing no effects latest report before time of tweet)
mean the same thing as:

9:51 AM SEPT 1st 2019

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!

9:51 AM - Sep 1, 2019

* Either you are a liar or incapable of first grade math.

I don't think you are worthy of me responding to until you explain how "Most likely be hit" means 95% likelihood it WONT BE HIT. Or even 80% likelihood WONT BE HIT if we assume he wasn't getting updates like he claimed.

That there is basic cognition.

a reply to: Extorris

There is so much bizarre irony in this statement it should be your tagline.

Irony? Only for those who think all Alabamians are just mindless sheep.

Oh, I am not doubting that Trump thought Dorian would "Most Likely" hit Alabama "(much) harder than anticipated".

Then I fail to see the problem? Trump said what he believed to be true. Likely that belief was due to something that was said during a briefing.

That confusion is not just possible, but likely when he has the attention span of a gnat and spent that day Golfing in Virginia while the Hurricane was heading toward Florida.

Ignoring the obvious attempt at demonization that has absolutely nothing to do with the subject of this thread:

What do you think he should have done? Gotten in a boat and rode out to negotiate with a hurricane? You're not of them guys who sees a tornado and tries to shoot it with a shotgun are you?

A hurricane is a force of nature. There is nothing Trump (or any President) can or could do to alter what they will do in any way. I suppose he could have sat around wringing his hands in despair, but that wouldn't accomplish anything.

He was wrong. He had no maps or information that supported that view. The worst case map for Alabama from 4 days earlier (9 Presidential updates earlier?) only had a 10-20% chance Alabama would feel ANY effects at all.

Actually, it's not that simple. The Bahamas are pretty much gone... wiped off the face of the map. There was a chance days before landfall that they wouldn't see any ill effects either.

Hurricanes work like that. They can move in unpredictable patterns. They can be barrelling toward one place, stop, spin around and hit somewhere they were forecast to never touch. Dorian was particularly unstable in its course.

That's why the NHC monitors them on such a regular basis, so they can change their forecast if needed. That's why they put out warnings and advisories in areas that may not be hit. No one knows where they will make landfall, even if they will make landfall, and considering the destructive power it is better to be safe than sorry.

A 10-20% chance of hurricane conditions does NOT mean there is an 80% chance of nothing happening. It means don't panic yet, but you might want to make sure you are ready.

TheRedneck

a reply to: Extorris

Advisory #34 Issued Sept 1st - 5pm

NYT reporting that Wilbur Ross was threatening to fire employees of NOAA after the tweet friday denying what the President says.

www.nytimes.com...


Of course I'm sure it'll all just bee "Reeee you hate Trump" "REEE NYT" as I've already been called in this thread. I dont care. This is so beyond rediculous, Im over this issue, but I also see how dangerous if true all of this can be. As someone interested in meteorology im highly disturbed by all of this, as are my other meteorologist friends. Even the ones that supported Trump.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx BREAKING!!! xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Commerce Chief Threatened Firings At NOAA After Trump Hurricane Tweets, Sources Say."

Source: MSN News

a reply to: UKTruth

Your days are off....not surprising because you have been intellectually dishonest this entire thread in the name of the infallible Trump.

a reply to: MetalThunder

They outline in white dear. and they draw a cone not an ameba.
thats a fake.
And a bad one at that.

a reply to: TheRedneck

I have to work til late. I'll try to disect what you posted later tonight...if I'm up for it.

While I am most certainly pessimistic on hurricane tracks, I told my parents they were safe to stay in Cocoa Beach, FL despite the fact they were under a mandatory evacuation. In the past it has been a major problem when too many people are issued evacuation orders when in reality they are safe. Many times I know of people who will evacuate the barrier island, only to not only experience worse conditions where they evacuate to, then have a nightmare trying to get back home.

The reality is the NHC gave no chance of tropical storm force winds on Sept 1st, the day of the tweet. Trump dropped the ball on this one.

Do you think the NWS in Birmingham was wrong when they issued a statement refuting Trump's claim?

a reply to: trb71

Thats the way to always be right.
Fire anyone who dares to disagree with you.

Now that story is out he looks like an even bigger idiot.
Pathetic puppy.

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: UKTruth

Your days are off....not surprising because you have been intellectually dishonest this entire thread in the name of the infallible Trump.

Nope.
Links provided. Published exactly on the days I said.
You can keep lying all you want - you will be called on it.

originally posted by: trb71
NYT reporting that Wilbur Ross was threatening to fire employees of NOAA after the tweet friday denying what the President says.

www.nytimes.com...


Of course I'm sure it'll all just bee "Reeee you hate Trump" "REEE NYT" as I've already been called in this thread. I dont care. This is so beyond rediculous, Im over this issue, but I also see how dangerous if true all of this can be. As someone interested in meteorology im highly disturbed by all of this, as are my other meteorologist friends. Even the ones that supported Trump.

NY Times. "Sources say"

originally posted by: Extorris

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Extorris

originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris

Right.

Out of the several dozen of projections over days, THAT map is actually the worst case scenario for Alabama and 4 days prior to Trump's tweet.

Even in that prediction which existed only for a few hours before being revised, it had an 80% chance that Alabama would feel no effects what-so-ever.

Nope, the NOAA published forecasts on the 31st and the 1st Sep that had a 20% and a 10%, respectively, chance of Tropical storm force winds (>=39mph) hitting Alabama.

You've been shown to be wrong time and time again.

I said that Map was the worst case scenario. I did not say it was the only map to show risk of winds.

While "forecasts on the 31st and the 1st Sep that had a 20% and a 10%, respectively" it was over a smaller portion than the earlier map...thus the other map was the worst case scenario.

20% chance of winds is 80% chance of no winds ..or is that too complicated for you?

Does 80% likelihood of Alabama seeing no effects (95% likelihood of seeing no effects latest report before time of tweet)
mean the same thing as:

9:51 AM SEPT 1st 2019

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!

9:51 AM - Sep 1, 2019

* Either you are a liar or incapable of first grade math.

I don't think you are worthy of me responding to until you explain how "Most likely be hit" means 95% likelihood it WONT BE HIT. Or even 80% likelihood WONT BE HIT if we assume he wasn't getting updates like he claimed.

That there is basic cognition.

20% chance is enough.
You can be absolutely certain that if winds of 39mph+ had hit south east Alabama and anyone had been injured or worse, the very same people calling out the President now would be blaming him for the injuries or deaths.
With a 20% chance of Tropical storm force wins forecasted, it is prudent to ensure that people are aware and can prepare.

If you need to have the concept of a forecast explained, perhaps you shouldn't be posting about all of this at all.

originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris

Advisory #34 Issued Sept 1st - 5pm

More truth that will no doubt be ignored in order to propagate the lies.
You can tell election year is coming up.

a reply to: jrod

Of course Trump dropped the ball... but so did the NHC, the NWS, NOAA... you yourself just pointed out that one area under a mandatory evacuation was actually safe.

My only concern is that one man is being singled out for getting this track wrong when every expert around the globe did as well. It was a minor error, completely understandable given the uncertainties involved at the time, and does not warrant 10 pages of back and forth.

If I am going to blame Trump for this, then I have to blame the experts across the planet for those deaths in the Bahamas. Those poor people had very little warning, as Dorian turned up the energy so close to them and then stalled. Only days before it was expected to be a Cat 1 at normal speed at most. So where's the outcry over those errors from professional meteorologists?

If it were to surface, I would defend them as well. Hurricane forecasts are simply not guarantees. They are educated guesses at best, no matter who is making them. I'm just happy someone tries to get it right. That's more important to me than someone getting it wrong once in a while.

TheRedneck

a reply to: Sillyolme

Is Wilbur Ross orange too?

TheRedneck