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originally posted by: TheRedneck
This ignorant redneck will not embarrass you with vector calculus just yet. I'm just not going to fall for the deflection either.
I see no correlation between claims of identity politics and whether Trump had reason to believe there was enough chance of Dorian affecting Alabama to mention it.
originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris
originally posted by: Extorris
originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris
Right.
Out of the several dozen of projections over days, THAT map is actually the worst case scenario for Alabama and 4 days prior to Trump's tweet.
Even in that prediction which existed only for a few hours before being revised, it had an 80% chance that Alabama would feel no effects what-so-ever.
I can easily check their twitter feed where it shows on August 31st a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds in Alabama twitter.com... Thats the day before Trump's tweet. NOT 4 days.
Moreover, I can see on the same timeline that there was still a reported 10% chance of tropical storm force winds hitting Alabama reported on Sep 1st, the DAY Trump tweeted. twitter.com...
originally posted by: UKTruth
originally posted by: Extorris
originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris
Right.
Out of the several dozen of projections over days, THAT map is actually the worst case scenario for Alabama and 4 days prior to Trump's tweet.
Even in that prediction which existed only for a few hours before being revised, it had an 80% chance that Alabama would feel no effects what-so-ever.
Nope, the NOAA published forecasts on the 31st and the 1st Sep that had a 20% and a 10%, respectively, chance of Tropical storm force winds (>=39mph) hitting Alabama.
You've been shown to be wrong time and time again.
There is so much bizarre irony in this statement it should be your tagline.
Oh, I am not doubting that Trump thought Dorian would "Most Likely" hit Alabama "(much) harder than anticipated".
That confusion is not just possible, but likely when he has the attention span of a gnat and spent that day Golfing in Virginia while the Hurricane was heading toward Florida.
He was wrong. He had no maps or information that supported that view. The worst case map for Alabama from 4 days earlier (9 Presidential updates earlier?) only had a 10-20% chance Alabama would feel ANY effects at all.
"Commerce Chief Threatened Firings At NOAA After Trump Hurricane Tweets, Sources Say."
originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: UKTruth
Your days are off....not surprising because you have been intellectually dishonest this entire thread in the name of the infallible Trump.
originally posted by: trb71
NYT reporting that Wilbur Ross was threatening to fire employees of NOAA after the tweet friday denying what the President says.
www.nytimes.com...
Of course I'm sure it'll all just bee "Reeee you hate Trump" "REEE NYT" as I've already been called in this thread. I dont care. This is so beyond rediculous, Im over this issue, but I also see how dangerous if true all of this can be. As someone interested in meteorology im highly disturbed by all of this, as are my other meteorologist friends. Even the ones that supported Trump.
originally posted by: Extorris
originally posted by: UKTruth
originally posted by: Extorris
originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris
Right.
Out of the several dozen of projections over days, THAT map is actually the worst case scenario for Alabama and 4 days prior to Trump's tweet.
Even in that prediction which existed only for a few hours before being revised, it had an 80% chance that Alabama would feel no effects what-so-ever.
Nope, the NOAA published forecasts on the 31st and the 1st Sep that had a 20% and a 10%, respectively, chance of Tropical storm force winds (>=39mph) hitting Alabama.
You've been shown to be wrong time and time again.
I said that Map was the worst case scenario. I did not say it was the only map to show risk of winds.
While "forecasts on the 31st and the 1st Sep that had a 20% and a 10%, respectively" it was over a smaller portion than the earlier map...thus the other map was the worst case scenario.
20% chance of winds is 80% chance of no winds ..or is that too complicated for you?
Does 80% likelihood of Alabama seeing no effects (95% likelihood of seeing no effects latest report before time of tweet)
mean the same thing as:
9:51 AM SEPT 1st 2019
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!
9:51 AM - Sep 1, 2019
* Either you are a liar or incapable of first grade math.
I don't think you are worthy of me responding to until you explain how "Most likely be hit" means 95% likelihood it WONT BE HIT. Or even 80% likelihood WONT BE HIT if we assume he wasn't getting updates like he claimed.
That there is basic cognition.
originally posted by: MetalThunder
a reply to: Extorris
Advisory #34 Issued Sept 1st - 5pm