So, what that now on the table it has restricted parliaments ability to block a no-deal Brexit. I do not want to get into the merits or risks of a
no-deal in this thread the only point that needs to be made is that our democratically elected parliament does not support a no-deal. Therefore,
attempts have been made to block this.
The first attempt came with a legal challenge in the Scottish courts arguing that Johnsons declaration of prorogation was unlawful as it was an
unconstitutional use of the PMs powers, as I type this very thread up this case is currently
being heard in Edinburgh
. Along with this on Thursday the former
Conservative Prime Minister John Major is also going to be part of a team going to the high court
to make a similar case.
Meanwhile however in Parliament a move similar to that which we saw in April (see
) is being planned by
those MPs opposed to Brexit. Essentially, they are planning on applying to the Speaker of the House for a
Standing Order 24
emergency debate which given his
outrage over prorogation he is likely to grant. Based on the current run of business it is expected that this application will happen at around 17:00
and could be debated thereafter for a few hours with MPs voting to take control of the house agenda for Wednesday. Following this they will then be
able to use Wednesday to pass a bill that will legally require the Prime Minister to request a 3-month extension from the EU beyond the current leave
date of the 31st of October.
The use of legislation to force the Prime Minister to act in this way is in itself very controversial but what is even more controversial is the PMs
possible response. He has already said we are leaving on the 31st of October,
“No if’s or no but’s”
yet this bill would
legally force him to request an extension something he is unwilling to do. Some have suggested that the government could just refuse to grant the bill
Royal assent or ignore it all together. Under a system of parliamentary democracy, the significance of this cannot be overstated.
Because of how controversial this would be the only real option that Boris would have is to call a general election. This was hinted at in his speech
just yesterday, the feel appears to be that any passing of such a bill would amount to a no confidence vote. Boris would be unwilling to go to the EU
are request the extension so he would instead call a general election through the
Fixed-term Parliament act 2011
If the no-deal blocking MPs are successful on Wednesday and their bill passes through the house of Lords on Thursday, then is ratified and given Royal
Accent its possible that after this on Thursday or Friday Boris could table a motion for a general election to be called. For this to pass he would
require 66% of MPs to agree, he would then go to the Queen and as her to dissolve parliament and from here we would have a minimum 25 days of
campaigning. It seems highly unlikely that Boris could get this to pass if the campaign window takes us beyond the 31st of October and it seems
likely that we could be heading to the polls by the 14th of October despite Boris saying he doesn't want one.
Thats not even getting into the possibility of Conservative rebels being deselected....
Its only prudent to point out that this entire political drama is now so complex that its becoming impossible to predict what will happen next and I
don't think even the most learned of UK political scholars are even clear on all of the details so my apologies if there are any errors in the above I
have done my best to fact check everything.
This entire thing is uncharted Watters for the UK, in my personally opinion we are probably headed towards a general election before the 31st of
October but time will tell. I think the prospect of a general election is a interesting one and should that come to pass I will post a thread giving
more of a explanation around that but right now I don't want to get drawn into much into that possibility however inevitable it seems to be.
Looks like we're in for a interesting week, I hope the above helps some who might not be as familiar with our politics to understand what's going on.
edit on 3-9-2019 by OtherSideOfTheCoin because: (no reason given)