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Hurricane Dorian taking aim at Florida

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posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 02:55 PM
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originally posted by: ketsuko
It still hasn't undergone an eye replacement cycle yet, has it?


Last I checked around 6am, it was undergoing an EWRC. It's going to lose strength during it, those can last a day or two before the new eyewall is fully set. Over water that shallow and warm, and gearing up to plug into the Gulf Stream, rapid intensification is a strong possibility. Later overnight/early tomorrow is going to give the best idea of what to expect.

Before I forget, I've been watching a news channel out of the Bahamas while they're still able to broadcast, I think they're in Freeport. If it interests anyone, here you go:

znsbahamas.com...




posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:00 PM
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a reply to: Violater1

From off the Atlantic Coast of Florida, 172 mph to 132 mph winds for the several days! www.nrlmry.navy.mil...,19-EPAC-11E.JULIETTE,19-WPAC-14W.FOURTEEN,19-WPAC-15W.LINGLING,19-ATL-91L.IN VEST,19-WPAC-91W.INVEST,19-ATL-92L.INVEST,19-ATL-93L.INVEST,19-WPAC-93W.INVEST,19-WPAC-94W.INVEST&SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=al&ATCF_YR=2019 &ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2019/al052019.19090206.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/at cf_web/public_html/image_archives/2019/al052019.19090206.gif&CURRENT=20190902.1630.goes16.x.vis1km.05LDORIAN.140kts-917mb-267N-782W.100pc.jpg&CURRENT_ ATCF=al052019.19090206.gif&ATCF_NAME=al052019&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2019&AGE=Latest&MO=SEP&BASIN=AT L&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2019&YR=19&STORM_NAME=05L.DORIAN&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc19/ATL/05L.DORIAN/vis/geo/1 km&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=gif



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:04 PM
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a reply to: Violater1

You need to work on your linkage.

But here's something a bit more readable. Currently forecast to gradually decrease in strength.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.2N 79.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.1N 79.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.3N 80.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:12 PM
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a reply to: Phage
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...
NOAA gets it's hurricane info from the Navy.
Naval Research Laboratory Monterey IS THE Standard.



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:20 PM
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a reply to: Phage

Is this better




posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:30 PM
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a reply to: Violater1




NOAA gets it's hurricane info from the Navy.


Your source:

Forecast by: National Hurricane Center
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...





edit on 9/2/2019 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:35 PM
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Violater1




NOAA gets it's hurricane info from the Navy.


Your source:

Forecast by: National Hurricane Center
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...


Graphic by: Fleet Weather Center Norfolk, VA (CAC Required)
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

edit on V372019Mondaypm30America/ChicagoMon, 02 Sep 2019 15:37:13 -05001 by Violater1 because: CAC Required



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:39 PM
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a reply to: Violater1



Graphic by: Fleet Weather Center Norfolk, VA

So, not Monterey? With the hurricane data from NOAA, I could make a graphic too. But there's no point because it's right there on the NOAA website.


The forecast is from NOAA, not the navy.

This is a wrong statement:


NOAA gets it's hurricane info from the Navy.

The forecast is from NOAA and, as I said, it calls for gradual weakening.

edit on 9/2/2019 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:47 PM
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originally posted by: Violater1

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Violater1




NOAA gets it's hurricane info from the Navy.


Your source:

Forecast by: National Hurricane Center
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...


Graphic by: Fleet Weather Center Norfolk, VA (CAC Required)
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...


Not solely it doesn't. It's run by the National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA, which is part of the Department of Commerce. Ultimately, the NHC collaborates with others. They do that with a lot of branches relating to Environment & with the military.



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:47 PM
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a reply to: Phage

Isn't a forecast based on information?

I think the Navy gathers information and forwards it to NOAA who makes the forecast.

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:50 PM
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originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Phage

Isn't a forecast based on information?

I think the Navy gathers information and forwards it to NOAA who makes the forecast.

TheRedneck


Not always. That'd be like saying the buoys here in Lake Michigan are all military buoys. They're not. NOAA gets their data (be it sat, buoy, ship station rigs, etc) from a lot of sources, not just the Navy.

Edit: If you're interested, here's a list of data categories from NOAA:
www.ncdc.noaa.gov...
edit on 9/2/2019 by Nyiah because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 03:52 PM
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a reply to: TheRedneck

NOAA gets information from a lot of places. Satellites, ships at sea (including Navy ships), surface observations, aircraft, weather balloons.

But it's pretty clear that Violater was talking about the forecast, since that was what his post was about.

edit on 9/2/2019 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 05:50 PM
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a reply to: Violater1

No they don't. NOAA is separate from the Navy.The Navy more often than not uses NOAA for weather guessing. Ex Navy here.

Given how poorly the Navy's hurricane computer model performs, I would not trust their forecasts.

edit on 2-9-2019 by jrod because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 05:50 PM
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I don't think it's going to come onshore.


edit on 2-9-2019 by FlyingFox because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 05:57 PM
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The forecast track keeps Dorian offshore of Florida. Currently he is stationary which makes narrowing down the exact track much more difficult.

The NHC shifted their forecast slightly east this evening based on computer guidance models shifting a little east. This is good news for Florida but way to early to sound the all clear.

My concern is there is a chance the storm could taken a brief westward track before being picked up by the next trough making it come closer or perhaps striking Florida.



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 06:28 PM
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a reply to: jrod

Seems like TABS is the only model that brings the storm ashore in Florida. TCLP has it grounding in Georgia at 85kts, HWFI in S. Carolina at something under 78 kts. Looks like it's going to pick up speed as it moves out of the Bahamas.

Pretty well guaranteed that most of the Florida coast is going to get tropical storm force winds, at least.



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 06:31 PM
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a reply to: Nyiah

a reply to: Phage

My thinking was that it takes a pretty tough and specialized plane (and pilot!) to gather data from inside a hurricane. Knowing that, it wouldn't surprise me that they use Navy planes, possibly with NOAA equipment, to get the direct data on the hurricanes. I don't doubt that other weather data that would affect steering would be pretty much NOAA.

I don't have any first-hand knowledge of this, but it certainly makes sense. I know NASA coordinates with the military to get the use of their equipment when needed.

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 06:34 PM
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a reply to: TheRedneck

The hurricane hunters are crewed by Air Force Reserves and NOAA personnel mostly.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

And all of them are nuts.

edit on 9/2/2019 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 07:00 PM
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USAFR 53d WRS

The Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the world's only operational military weather reconnaissance unit, is based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi; most weather recon flights originate there. The term "hurricane hunters" was first applied to its missions in 1946.

The 53d WRS hurricane hunters operate ten Lockheed WC-130J aircraft, which fly directly into hurricanes, typically penetrating the hurricane's eye several times per mission at altitudes between 500 feet (150 m) and 10,000 feet (3,000 m).

NOAA Hurricane Hunters

The civilian and NOAA Corps crew members of the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, until recently based at the Aircraft Operations Center at MacDill AFB, in Tampa, Florida, mainly perform surveillance, research, and reconnaissance with highly instrumented aircraft including airborne Doppler weather radar measurements in both Atlantic and Pacific storms.

They fly two Lockheed WP-3D Orion aircraft, heavily instrumented flying laboratories modified to take atmospheric and radar measurements within tropical cyclones and winter storms, and a G-IV Gulfstream high-altitude jet above 41,000 feet (12 km) to document upper- and lower-level winds that affect cyclone movement. The computer models that forecast hurricane tracks and intensity mainly use G-IV dropsonde data collected day and night in storms affecting the United States

en.wikipedia.org...



posted on Sep, 2 2019 @ 07:03 PM
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A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration P-3 "Hurricane Hunter" flew into Hurricane Dorian as it passed over the Bahamas Sunday, giving a rare look inside the eye of the Category 5 storm

Link




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