Hurricane Dorian taking aim at Florida

It appears the storm is moving more west in the past hour. A lot of chatter on storm2k about a possible Florida landfall now. North Florida needs to keep a close eye on this.

Obviously I'm very pessimistic with these storms...but sometimes it's a good trait.

www.ventusky.com...

As of 8pm the center was 95miles East of Flagler Beach. Winds were at 105 mph, Dorian is moving NNW at 8mph with pressure at 964mb.

The storm appears to be maintaining with slight fluctuations in strength. The window to strengthen is almost closed and the storm will likely weaken slightly but with an expanding wind field in the near future.

The storm continues to bring tropical storm conditions to the coast of North and Central Florida. A wobble west will bring more severe conditions to Florida.

The storm is expected to parallel the coast with a potential landfall Friday morning in North Carolina with expected winds around 100mph.

Conditions are beginning to improve in Central Florida and a massive rescue and relief efforts are ongoing in the Bahamas.

Storm chaser Josh Mogerman is okay. He described it as the worst storm he has ever been through.
www.washingtonpost.com...

“Yep, I’m alive,” he began in a series of posts, 54 hours after going dark. “By far the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing. Thought I was playing it safe by riding it out in a solid-concrete school on a hill in Marsh Harbour. Thought wrong.”

The concrete school he tried to ride it out in:

a reply to: jrod

Good news, but if a concrete building couldn't count as a safe place to ride it out, that does not bode well for the coming body count.

Fox is in full "NHC did the best they could do" mode this morning, justifying the forecasts and the alerts for Florida.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

Florida missed hurricane conditions by a hair. Tropical storm conditions still are likely for North Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina coastlines.

It appears that Dorian is far enough off the coast for Florida and Georgia to miss the core(and hurricane conditions). The northern coast of South Carolina and North Carolina are still in the danger zone with hurricane conditions.

The NHC did a fantastic job issueing pertinent watches and warnings where necessary.

a reply to: jrod

The NHC did a fantastic job issueing pertinent watches and warnings where necessary.

I think so as well. Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to forecast. They are situated in a fluid atmosphere that is subject to very chaotic conditions, and at the same time create their own forces as well. Dorian formed in an area and at a time where the steering mechanisms were very calm overall, so that made the exact forecast much more difficult, at least at the outset. The NHC did get it (very) wrong at first, but as Dorian progressed they managed to hone in pretty well. The alerts were definitely warranted.

I just find it a bit amusing that the news networks feel the need to validate what is already a difficult job after the fact. It wasn't all that long ago when warnings were just issued for anywhere in the area, because we had no earthly idea where a hurricane would hit or how large it would become. Thank God the NHC does what it does today.

I have a gut feeling (so take that for what it's worth) that Dorian may move a bit farther west than predicted, grazing the coast as far south as the Georgia/South Carolina line. I do not think it will strengthen appreciably, though. The water is getting cooler as it moves north.

TheRedneck

The pressure dropped, wind back up to 110mph as of 5 pm.

Landfall in North Carolina is a possibility. The storm has a large core...even if it does not make landfall, hurricane conditions are still possible.

The pressure dropped to 962 mb; winds back up to 110mph as of 5 pm.

Landfall in North Carolina is a possibility. The storm has a large core...even if it does not make landfall, hurricane conditions are still possible.

Dorian has strengthened back to a major hurricane and is now taking aim at the Carolinas. Evacuations are underway for the coast, however I have heard a lot of Outer Banks residents not heeding to the mandatory evacuation.

This is one fierce storm that keeps defying expectations, absolutely incredible. It is one for the history books and will be researched heavily.

As of 11pm, Dorian is about 105 miles south of Charleston, SC. Maximum sustained winds are up to 115mph, pressure down to 955mb and is moving north at 7mph. Dorian will make its close approach to South Carolina in the next 6-12 hours and expected to hit the Outer Banks in the next 24 to 36 hours. The wind field has expanded, hurricane force winds extend to about 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out about 195miles.

a reply to: jrod

Will coming close to the U.S. land mass (South Carolina) weaken Dorian back to a Category 2 before she makes landfall at the Outer Banks Thursday night?

a reply to: carewemust

That depends on how close. As long as the eye is above water of reasonable depth and holds enough heat, a hurricane coming close to shore will not weaken. Once the eye hits shallow water, cold water, or land, that's what will kill it. The eye is the engine that drives the storm.

TheRedneck

a reply to: carewemust

Dorian is expected to encounter wind shear and weaken to a Cat 2 before It gets to the OBX. Given the history of the storm, I would not bet on it.

Landfall is likely today in the Carolinas. The exact spot is not import because Dorian has such a large wind field.

As of 8am, Dorian still is a category 3 with winds of 115mph and moving NNE at 8mph about 170miles SSW of Wilmington, NC. The storm will accelerate to the NE starting today.

The storm is expected to encounter shear and weaken slightly today, but still stay as a hurricane until it becomes extra tropical in about 72 hours.

We got a little wind, and some rain here in the Daytona area. Not much of anything. We boarded up, and I am debating taking them down since there is another tropical disturbance off of Africa.

On a positive note, I did get to surf some 8 foot waves yesterday afternoon, once the storm passed.

Dorian will likely be downgraded to a category 2 soon. He is still very close to the South Carolina coast.

Multiple tornadoes have been reported in thevrain bands and more are expected.

Video of a tornado near Willmington:

twitter.com...

Dorian is very close to making landfall near Georgetown, SC. It appears that Myrtle Beach will be just east of the eye and will likely experience strong hurricane conditions. Charleston, SC is outside the eyewall yet experiencing close to hurricane conditions right now.

The storm has wobbled more north this morning, however it is expected to generally move to the NE today while accelerating.

Hang on North and South Carolina, it will a rough day.

Is that heading towards Miami? Which part will be largely hit?

More video of another tornado!
twitter.com...

Some of these tornadoes maybe in the EF3 range....much stronger that the average hurricane spawned tornadoes.

originally posted by: faisaljamal79
Is that heading towards Miami? Which part will be largely hit?

No. Away from Miami. Dorian has also weakened back to a Category 2 storm. Good news.

As of 11:00am EDT: www.cbsnews.com...