Hurricane Dorian taking aim at Florida

a reply to: carewemust

If/when it starts moving, it could strengthen. Right now, the water under Dorian is cool because Dorian has been sitting there cooling it off for so long. Cat 2 is good news (for the US), but not an all clear.

From an energy standpoint, a hurricane just removes energy (heat) from the water underneath it and transforms that energy into wind and rain. The faster it moves, the more heat energy is available under it.

TheRedneck

a reply to: FlyingFox

There will be a small window for Dorian to regain some strength when it traverses the hot Gulfstream waters.

While it is looking better for Florida, North and Central Florida need to monitor the track closely. Given the nature of this beast, it still may surprise us.

There is a ridge of high pressure that is building in that may push it further west that forecast before the next trough sweeps Dorian to the northeast.

Hopefully the weakening trend continues. The storm is finally crawling away from Grand Bahama, moving NW at 2 mph and expected to start picking up speed.

a reply to: jrod

I just want to say thank you for doing such a great job so far micro-analyzing Dorian. From here on out, you're my go-to man for all things hurricane.

TheRedneck

Thank you.

The Melbourne, FL radar can see the eye.
www.wunderground.com...

It won't take much of a deviation to the west to make a huge impact on Florida.

It's heartbreaking to see how bad it was in the Bahamas.

The first aerial images from Abacos

twitter.com...

The 2pm advisory is due out any minute.

At 2pm still at 110mph, the pressure is up to 959mb. Moving NW at 5mph now.

Judging by the radar appearance the weakening trend has likely stopped.

originally posted by: jrod
The first aerial images from Abacos

twitter.com...

The 2pm advisory is due out any minute.

That island is completely wiped clean, there's a video from the ground that's just as stark. Nothing but cars left...


And the satellite image of Grand Bahama is shocking, the island is underwater and probably permanently reshaped. I can't imagine it having the same shoreline as before:

a reply to: Nyiah


That comparison photo is just stunning to look at...
It really gives you a feel for the level of destruction faced by the island.

originally posted by: opethPA
a reply to: Nyiah


That comparison photo is just stunning to look at...
It really gives you a feel for the level of destruction faced by the island.

It sure does. Like I said, I can't imagine Grand Bahama having the same coastline as before. I can't imagine it ever recovering the land lost to the storm surge, it's all swept away. What's left is under water, and what isn't is ravaged. The pessimist in me is trying to figure out how a tourist country can ever recover fully in the wake of this.

a reply to: Nyiah

The Port of Freeport will be closed for sometime....not that it would be good for anyone to have cruise ships there in the foreseeable future

Key West is trying to organize relief efforts and will have an Armada on the way as soon as it's safe. We have a meeting at City Hall tomorrow to get the ball rolling.

www.miamiherald.com...

First pics of the airport in Freeport, it's decimated.

Link to Twitter post

originally posted by: opethPA
a reply to: Nyiah


That comparison photo is just stunning to look at...
It really gives you a feel for the level of destruction faced by the island.

Someone posted a wider picture of the aftermath on Grand Bahama on the Weather Underground blog.

I underestimated the scale in the side by side, holy cow



Edit: Link to current blog
www.wunderground.com...

a reply to: Nyiah

If the government on the ground there is better and less corrupt than the ones in Puerto Rico and Haiti, Grand Bahama has a shot to put the aid that arrives to good use and eventually recover. You know there will be help on the way, and that point, it's about having the right people in place to do the best work with it.

a reply to: Nyiah

Looking at Google Earth for images prior then the areas submerged look to be, thankfully, mostly uninhabited but the wind damage looks substantial.

twitter.com...

Helicopter video from Great Abaco. 'Unprecedented destruction.'

originally posted by: jrod
twitter.com...

Helicopter video from Great Abaco. 'Unprecedented destruction.'

I think that's the same as the one I just saw on YT, I'll post an embed for people not wanting to go to Twitter.



The damage is utterly unreal and hard to put into appropriate words.

People keep talking about Freeport but the center of Abaco took a direct hit a full force.

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: carewemust

If/when it starts moving, it could strengthen. Right now, the water under Dorian is cool because Dorian has been sitting there cooling it off for so long. Cat 2 is good news (for the US), but not an all clear.

From an energy standpoint, a hurricane just removes energy (heat) from the water underneath it and transforms that energy into wind and rain. The faster it moves, the more heat energy is available under it.

TheRedneck

Thankyou for explaining what we're seeing now (Cat 2) and what could happen as the Dorian moves over water that hasn't been cooled.

I was listening to the CNN meteorologist explain this afternoon why "Strength Category" is not important. Two days ago, this same "expert" was giving example after example of the damage a Category 5 storm would bring to Florida.

a reply to: carewemust

The forecast is for the storm to maintain maximum sustained winds of 95 kts (category 2) as it moves north until the 5th and then to gradually decrease.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

a reply to: Phage

At one time, the forecast was for Dorian to make landfall mid-Florida as a Cat 1.

Not putting much stock in official forecasts this time... but I hope they're right.

TheRedneck