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originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: ketsuko
If your local weatherman thinks he knows better than the National Hurricane Center, then he is an idiot and no one should take him seriously.
Out of curiosity who is he and what station airs him?
1. Dangerous winds will continue in the Virgin Islands, Culebra,
Vieques, and portions of Puerto Rico during the next few hours.
Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
could produce flash flooding through Thursday morning.
2. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.
3. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.1N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 23.8N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.2N 71.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 27.7N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 28.2N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye
on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands.
In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface
observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial
intensity of 70 kt. Now that the hurricane has developed an inner
core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given
the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in
the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked
intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72
hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This
forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model,
and the SHIPS guidance.