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If not for Donald Trump being, well, Donald Trump, the 2020 race might well be a suicide run for Democrats. The record-long economic expansion is in its 121st month. The unemployment rate is at its lowest levels since the Apollo 11 moon landing. And not only do most Americans think the economy is doing pretty well, more and more are giving Trump credit for its strength. An election forecasting model run by Yale University economist Ray Fair is predicting a near-landslide for the GOP, assuming just "modest" economic growth between now and Election Day.
But they still need to contend with the robust American economy, one which continues to generate gobs of jobs, month after month. And while wage growth might not be spectacular, real wages are rising. Pretending none of this is happening makes Democrats look detached from reality. At the recent, two-night Democratic debate, Elizabeth Warren asked, "Who is this economy really working for? It's doing great for a thinner and thinner slice at the top." Except all the gains aren't just going to folks at the top. Right now wages are rising fastest for those in the bottom third. There's a big difference between saying things are good but could be better and trying to persuade satisfied people that they should be miserable. And if lots of people think the economy is pretty decent today, imagine how much that number might rise if the expansion runs through November of next year?
But they need to be careful that their skepticism remains reality based given the economy's continuing strength, as seen in last week's surprisingly strong June jobs report. And while economic growth may fade over the next year and a half, for now indicators are suggesting a slowdown rather than a recession.
Lol. This is tribalism at its finest.
Obviously I am a conservative. Republicans are now liberals as far as spending goes.
Pretending none of this is happening makes Democrats look detached from reality.
Wait until he passes some gun laws for the suburbs. Not going to go over well on the base
originally posted by: luthier
originally posted by: cenpuppie
It depends. If this trade war with China crushes the farmers, then nope, some of those states will swing blue.
It's all about how this trade war goes.
Not just it's also about a recession. If that happens he is gone
False as to your opinions on Republican fiscal policy, frankly you have no idea what you're talking about.
originally posted by: luthier
a reply to: Arnie123
The fact you have no idea what Austrian economics is would be an indicator that Republicans do not have a foundation of economics...since they are philosophical analysis of market patterns.
I never cried. I was very literal.
China is a problem. Trump is just too arrogant to have the solution.
So he has 2 options. Concede and give up the fight we need which is stop intellect theft, opiates etc...or let the economy crash hoping not too bad before he gets re elected so the chinese will make a deal for real.
If the economy hiccups like the indicators are showing (another economics term here) the negative bond yield curve, he will not be re elected. It could be jesus and if Americans can't get cheap iPhones for Christmas they will revolt. That is a literal historic pattern. Only war changed that stat.
Taking on china is fine...but telling the truth is necessary to prevent revolt.
Already prices are higher. Now the tariffs are direct consumer tax with electronics.
The debt is where things become a problem. Trump is asking for Quantative easing from the fed which is printing money to stimulate the economy. Obama and Bush style. Which lowers the currency value and will also add debt faster.
Current interest payments on debt are literally your taxes. Adding more debt on top of tariffs is a crushing force on real gdp.