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Do you still think Trump will win?

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posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:11 AM
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a reply to: Arnie123

The fact you have no idea what Austrian economics is would be an indicator that Republicans do not have a foundation of economics...since they are philosophical analysis of market patterns.

I never cried. I was very literal.

China is a problem. Trump is just too arrogant to have the solution.

So he has 2 options. Concede and give up the fight we need which is stop intellect theft, opiates etc...or let the economy crash hoping not too bad before he gets re elected so the chinese will make a deal for real.

If the economy hiccups like the indicators are showing (another economics term here) the negative bond yield curve, he will not be re elected. It could be jesus and if Americans can't get cheap iPhones for Christmas they will revolt. That is a literal historic pattern. Only war changed that stat.

Taking on china is fine...but telling the truth is necessary to prevent revolt.

Already prices are higher. Now the tariffs are direct consumer tax with electronics.

The debt is where things become a problem. Trump is asking for Quantative easing from the fed which is printing money to stimulate the economy. Obama and Bush style. Which lowers the currency value and will also add debt faster.

Current interest payments on debt are literally your taxes. Adding more debt on top of tariffs is a crushing force on real gdp.
edit on 8-8-2019 by luthier because: (no reason given)




posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:18 AM
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a reply to: luthier

Are you saying trickle down won't work? Herecy!!!



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:23 AM
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It doesn't matter how many people think trump is a bad human being.

It only matters how many people click the box with his name in it.


There is such a thing as voter fatigue.

Remember Sandy Hook? That December, It looked like Obama had the golden opportunity to get the Finestein Assaultweapons ban re-instated the next year.

But as time went buy, and ammo became unavailable--in .22 caliber (the most common gun in those suburbs), the tide started to shift. And by the summer break in 2013 it was obvious that congress wasn't going to get anything done on the issue.

I think getting some red flag laws in place by spring will let trump cover his big orange but as we go into the all-star break and the fourth of July.

Then the top story will be the Dems not wanting trump to hold a 4th of July parade in Washington, DC.

That, and video seepage of thousands of undocumented democrats running to where the fence ends, and dodging around it to achieve full healthcare benefits...

should just about do the trick.



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:24 AM
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a reply to: Graysen

Won't matter at all of the economy has any issues.

If it does not you are probably correct.



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:34 AM
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a reply to: luthier
theweek.com...


If not for Donald Trump being, well, Donald Trump, the 2020 race might well be a suicide run for Democrats. The record-long economic expansion is in its 121st month. The unemployment rate is at its lowest levels since the Apollo 11 moon landing. And not only do most Americans think the economy is doing pretty well, more and more are giving Trump credit for its strength. An election forecasting model run by Yale University economist Ray Fair is predicting a near-landslide for the GOP, assuming just "modest" economic growth between now and Election Day.




But they still need to contend with the robust American economy, one which continues to generate gobs of jobs, month after month. And while wage growth might not be spectacular, real wages are rising. Pretending none of this is happening makes Democrats look detached from reality. At the recent, two-night Democratic debate, Elizabeth Warren asked, "Who is this economy really working for? It's doing great for a thinner and thinner slice at the top." Except all the gains aren't just going to folks at the top. Right now wages are rising fastest for those in the bottom third. There's a big difference between saying things are good but could be better and trying to persuade satisfied people that they should be miserable. And if lots of people think the economy is pretty decent today, imagine how much that number might rise if the expansion runs through November of next year?




But they need to be careful that their skepticism remains reality based given the economy's continuing strength, as seen in last week's surprisingly strong June jobs report. And while economic growth may fade over the next year and a half, for now indicators are suggesting a slowdown rather than a recession.


but orange man is bad



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:45 AM
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a reply to: shooterbrody

Can you form an argument or...no just irrelevant data.

The same jobs report that was fake with obama is now real.

The same debt for obama is now good.

Got it psyop accomplished.



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:48 AM
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a reply to: luthier
lol
it is Irrelevant when it shreds your opinion
lol
that is a laff riot

hope you are ready for another 4 years
the hot garbage your dnc has spewed forth as candidates should wake you up
but that is impossible when you are already "woke"



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:51 AM
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a reply to: shooterbrody

Lol. This is tribalism at its finest.

Obviously I am a conservative. Republicans are now liberals as far as spending goes.

How does a great economy accrue more debt than under a recession?
When deficit Don is president..

Wait until he passes some gun laws for the suburbs. Not going to go over well on the base.



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:55 AM
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a reply to: luthier



Lol. This is tribalism at its finest.

your dnc shilling is, no doubt



Obviously I am a conservative. Republicans are now liberals as far as spending goes.

after reading your posts here, I submit you are anti-trump with a side of dnc
you don't have a "conservative" post here at all

from the link I submitted above



Pretending none of this is happening makes Democrats look detached from reality.

that is you friend



Wait until he passes some gun laws for the suburbs. Not going to go over well on the base

and more if the detached reality



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:57 AM
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a reply to: shooterbrody

Lol. Do you see Russians too...lol..

No you are right printing money and socialist union worker protectionism in trade policy is totally conservative.

You have me figured out I am a fiscally conservative democrat....

Great detective skills.



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:58 AM
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originally posted by: luthier

originally posted by: cenpuppie
It depends. If this trade war with China crushes the farmers, then nope, some of those states will swing blue.

It's all about how this trade war goes.


Not just it's also about a recession. If that happens he is gone


Well you can hope and pray, but there is no recession on the horizon. Sorry to disappoint you



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 11:59 AM
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a reply to: toolgal462

Here is what adults are saying.

www.wsj.com...



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 12:05 PM
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a reply to: luthier

Oh wow, you found a link to support your hopes and prayers.

I could easily link you to 10 sources that say the opposite you know. But I wouldn't bother.

It is called confirmation bias, of which you are guilty.



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 12:07 PM
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a reply to: toolgal462

www.marketwatch.com...

Let me guess all new words and vocabulary in the article.
edit on 8-8-2019 by luthier because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 12:08 PM
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originally posted by: luthier
a reply to: Arnie123

The fact you have no idea what Austrian economics is would be an indicator that Republicans do not have a foundation of economics...since they are philosophical analysis of market patterns.

I never cried. I was very literal.

China is a problem. Trump is just too arrogant to have the solution.

So he has 2 options. Concede and give up the fight we need which is stop intellect theft, opiates etc...or let the economy crash hoping not too bad before he gets re elected so the chinese will make a deal for real.

If the economy hiccups like the indicators are showing (another economics term here) the negative bond yield curve, he will not be re elected. It could be jesus and if Americans can't get cheap iPhones for Christmas they will revolt. That is a literal historic pattern. Only war changed that stat.

Taking on china is fine...but telling the truth is necessary to prevent revolt.

Already prices are higher. Now the tariffs are direct consumer tax with electronics.

The debt is where things become a problem. Trump is asking for Quantative easing from the fed which is printing money to stimulate the economy. Obama and Bush style. Which lowers the currency value and will also add debt faster.

Current interest payments on debt are literally your taxes. Adding more debt on top of tariffs is a crushing force on real gdp.
False as to your opinions on Republican fiscal policy, frankly you have no idea what you're talking about.

Both of your opinions on two choices is also wrong and won't fly.

Trump will not conceded, we are past that point, markets are adjusting accordingly.

Secondly, the economy isn't crashing as I already stated in a response to you.

I'll extens and olive brand and concede that at the very least, you understand the issue with china and the need to stop them.

What are your views on china and how would you approach it?

If you took Trumps position and hardlIne stance, what would you do differently an how effective would it be?



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 12:08 PM
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a reply to: luthier

So you do more of the same. Whatever Luthier...

BTW, you proclaiming to NOT be a DNC shill is hilarious.

I'm sure everyone believes you are a Conservative....

right....



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 12:11 PM
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Personally, I DO expect at least a mild recession in 2020.

But the state of the economy is likely to not be the deciding factor, unless other, more emotional issues don't have impact.

I think dramatic news footage will galvanize the independents. IF that happens, the independents will vote for Trump over their own objections to his ill-mannered showmanship.

I believe that is exactly what happened in 2016.

Hillary's "basket of deplorables" speech in 2016 was only aimed at the white trash who don't really vote anyway. But the middle-class undecideds HEARD it, and didn't like to hear a candidate smear a huge minority that way. Just like Romney's doxxed "47%" comments in the previous election.

Trump is a lout; but he has an instinct for setting up democrats in the house. So he doesn't even have to beat Biden, just the house democrats who aren't even running against him. Like the way he just did Elijah Cummings. It didn't actually Hurt EC, but it hurt the democrats as a whole. Trump specializes in that crap. And a president CAN get re-elected if he trolls the opposition-controlled house just right.

It's part of what Obama did in 2012, that got him re-elected. Trump can do the same.
edit on 8-8-2019 by Graysen because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 12:12 PM
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a reply to: Arnie123

If it was me I would make big deals with Europe before the pressure of failure set in, and slowly turned up the heat telling the public it may hurt a little and getting everyone on board.

What I wouldn't do is attack our allies, lie to the people the chinese will pay for the tariffs, and cut taxes when you need the revenue to pay for losses.

But since it's about politics it's really about virtue signalling for the next election.

I feel the only way trump looses is an economic crash. And the people in the market. The real people from every side are very concerned about the indictators that show real problems.

Good economists dont think best case scenario. Ever...they know the consequences



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 12:13 PM
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a reply to: toolgal462

You here a lot of free market democrats?
Maybe you have been stuck in the tribe..



posted on Aug, 8 2019 @ 12:39 PM
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a reply to: JAGStorm

Trump's approval rate is the same as Obama's was at this point in his first term.

His chance at re-election is not looking bad.



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