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Is Al-Qaeda Ready to Strike US Again?

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posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 06:05 PM
I've skimmed the boards and saw no reference to this article, so if it's a repeat, my apologies.

Michael Scheuer, former CIA and author of a recent book (Imperial Hubris), contends that Al-Qaeda is now in a position to strike the US once again. Entitled Al-Qaeda's Completed Warning Cycle - Ready to Attack?" Scheuer draws on several pieces of evidence to make his case; and he makes a compelling one. First, as discussed in another thread on this board, Scheuer notes that CIA Director Porter Goss has stated that Soviet-era nukes *may* be in the hands of Al-Qaeda. This news should not be taken lightly, argues Scheuer, because of communications from Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri from late last year. These communications were the final touches of the required warnings Islam requires in Jihad prior to use of WMDs or other weapons that would inflict mass casualties. Scheuer's analysis is very well sourced (referencing the appropriate bin Laden speeches and such) and well reasoned. In the end, he states: "If Zawahiri's November 28 speech did conclude al-Qaeda's warning cycle, it probably means the group is ready to attack in the United States, a situation that makes DCI Goss's statement that Soviet nuclear materials may be held by al-Qaeda all the more troubling."

Taking this one step further is blogger USMC_VET at The Word Unheard. In his post from yesterday, USMC_VET takes Scheuer's article and adds one more piece: the call from bin Laden to terrorist Zarqawi in Iraq to shift focus from Iraq to targets *inside* the US. This can be read as a tactical shift due to the military and political losses Al-Qaeda is experiencing in Iraq and the Middle East, so goes the argument. Combine the necessary steps to justify the use of mass casualty weapons with the call to what is arguably Al-Qaeda's best tested operative to focus on the US, and the tension becomes greater.

USMC_VET does a much better job wrapping all of this together than I have. But it's worth the read. One comment on USMC_VET's blog noted that the first year anniversary of 3/11 in Spain is only a week away.

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