It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

Conventional Wisdom On Tariffs Shattered: Import Prices Decline, Year Over Year.

page: 3
26
<< 1  2    4 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 05:53 PM
link   
a reply to: luthier



Fuel prices are lower. This has a way of not only effecting import price but effecting the cost directly of the product through shipping.


Yeah, no. See my above response to cheese.



The dollar was predicted to rise due to lack of consumer spending.

Still waiting on a link.




For instance look at the tax foundation predictions. Spot on so far.


Here it is, directly from the tax foundation. So far a swing and a miss.



Historical evidence shows that tariffs raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for U.S. businesses and consumers, which results in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output.


However, they do go on to say this:



Alternatively, the U.S. dollar may appreciate in response to tariffs, offsetting the potential price increase on U.S. consumers....
This would also result in lower U.S. output and incomes for both workers and owners of capital, reducing incentives for work and investment, and leading to a smaller economy.


Output and incomes are both up. Economic growth is also continuing nicely. So again, they were wrong.



Trump is adding 1 trillion per year.


No, congress is adding that. That's where the power of the purse lies. But they're not adding 1 trillion, they're adding 722 billion, like I said. They may add a trillion this year, but time will tell.



A decline or deficit in GDP is a common term in economics. I guess that makes me ignorant?


A decline in GDP is a common economic term. A deficit in GDP is not. Maybe you're not from the US. Not once in all of my economics courses did I hear the term deficit in GDP. Now something may be measured as a deficit IN GDP, but that's not even close to what you said. You said:



import prices do not offset gdp deficit


Anyway... moving on.



The deficit is in us exports and through supply chain increases american companies have to eat.


What deficit? The deficit? Very specific.



As I said they are part of keeping the CPI low.


Again that's not what you said.

You said:



they control the CPI along with other factors.


But lets dive a little deeper here. You seem to be making the assumption that we live in a centrally managed economy where we control the imports we make with the goal of keeping a metric in check. In this case CPI. Of course the problem is we don't live in a centrally managed economy which destroys the premise that someone or something is manipulating the inputs to CPI.



Trump is adding (creating an annual deficit which I clearly state) of 1 trillion. Probably more this year. Record deficits. Literal record deficit for non economic downturn....


Not trump, congress. And again it's 722 billion. The 2017 deficit was 665B, the 2018 deficit was 779. We agree that it's a problem. But as long as there are democrats in congress and they require 60 votes for budgets, this number is only going to increase. Thems the facts.



We are borrowing from all over the world, printing money, and selling bonds.... Its smoke and mirrors but you go ahead and jump on the train it will be good for another few months.


Our debt to GDP is high, right around 100%. But have a look over at japan and see what's possible (they're #1! at 234% debt to gdp).

It makes me unhappy we are that high, but to think we're done because of it is to deny the reality of the last 100 years.
We need to fix it. But it's not the end of the world... yet.




posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 05:57 PM
link   
a reply to: luthier

I destroyed your correlation of fuel prices to cost of imported goods. Sorry, not sorry. Read it and weep.



To make it more clear: a 27.5% increase in oil prices, plus part of the year being tariffed, only resulted in a 1.8% increase in cost of goods in 2017-2018.
BUT
an 11% decrease in fuel cost not only counteracted the increased tariff's throughout the entirety of the period, but also dropped prices by 1.5% in 2018-2019??



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 06:02 PM
link   
The president has built a very resilient economy in only a short amount of time.

Beer mongers wine about gas prices skyrocketing every time a little bomb goes off someplace. America is not captive to that anymore.



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 06:05 PM
link   
a reply to: luthier



I have a 90 percent return hedging on economic downturn in my portfolio I control. From crypto to gold the economists know what is coming and so does the market.


Lol! On your $1,000? Good job!

Gold is up YoY about $23 (1.7%). Bitcoin (the benchmark for crypto) is up about 40%. Even from the 52 week lows gold is only up about 14%. So yeah, unless you have a crypto heavy account (which makes you a moron) and you bought at just the right time I'm calling BS. But hey I guess it's not impossible you got lucky and bought at just the right moment. Give it time and bitcoin will be $0.



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 06:44 PM
link   

originally posted by: luthier
a reply to: Dfairlite

Lol. Let me real slow since maybe that is a problem for you.

Fuel prices are lower. This has a way of not only effecting import price but effecting the cost directly of the product through shipping.

The dollar was predicted to rise due to lack of consumer spending. Totally predicted. For instance look at the tax foundation predictions. Spot on so far.

Trump is adding 1 trillion per year. I think you realize that is what I am saying. Perhaps you haven't seen the list of proposed and executed tariffs and the countries they contain from India to Canada. I know it's hard to read data.

A decline or deficit in GDP is a common term in economics. I guess that makes me ignorant?

The deficit is in us exports and through supply chain increases american companies have to eat.

The CPI is used to (wrongly) guage inflation. I suppose if you just learned the term you may be confused how imports keep the CPI low. As I said they are part of keeping the CPI low. But I get it it's easier to make strawmen.

Trump is adding (creating an annual deficit which I clearly state) of 1 trillion. Probably more this year. Record deficits. Literal record deficit for non economic downturn....

We are borrowing from all over the world, printing money, and selling bonds....

Its smoke and mirrors but you go ahead and jump on the train it will be good for another few months.


fred.stlouisfed.org...

Money velocity

www.goldmoney.com...

Probably not another important #

In Trumplandia everything is great unless a Democrat is president in which case we look at a different set of data



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 06:45 PM
link   

originally posted by: luthier
a reply to: Dfairlite

Omg. Fuel prices effwct the current market. They are impacted by the last price not from 2 years ago. What is this amateur hour?

Your entire post makes no sense in economic terms. Comparing apples to tires is a nice trick but doesn't fool people who watch the market.

I have a 90 percent return hedging on economic downturn in my portfolio I control. From crypto to gold the economists know what is coming and so does the market.

All time debt for business, consumers and the nation. Smoke and mirrors until you run out of smoke and the mirrors are broken from pissed off farmers.


Negative bond yield?

Gold stock in mining companies sure do love it



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 06:58 PM
link   
a reply to: toysforadults

Everything is not great. It is, however, getting better. We gotta get ALL of the obama out of the economy before things will be great. There are always going to be negative indicators in every economy. There are people using indicators every year to claim we're heading for a recession or outright depression. Hell, some of them love to claim we are headed for an outright apocalypse. Once in a blue moon, we go into recession and everyone starts looking for the guy who 'called it.' Then they begin tracking his indicator and later use it (and his new found credibility) to claim we're headed back down the rabbit hole!

I've been watching people destroy their investment accounts following these doom-sayers for way too long. One day again, they'll be right and we'll go into recession. But you know what will happen? All of their followers will run for the hills while the rest of us scrape together everything we can to buy (again) and in a few short years we'll all be sitting pretty and the guys that ran for the hills will miss out on the gains. It happens every time. And they won't buy the whole way up because they know it's about to happen again. Zerohedge is the prime example of this. They blocked me on social media because I kept reminding them of their previous failed doom porn. This was in 2013, they were recommending we sell everything and run.
edit on 17-6-2019 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 08:04 PM
link   
a reply to: Dfairlite

Everything is getting better? The debt is growing faster than ever in history. Trump and his "roaring" economy is producing 2009 level bail out debt.

He is literally I mean literally calling for the feds to lower rates and start doing more quantitative easing. He directly says we need to do more quantitative easing.


From personal, business, and as a nation we are in massive debt...record debt levels all the way through the economy.

While trump is playing 1980 Democrat and turning conservatives into Europeans the actual world is developing block chain tech, AI, and genetic engineering at a breakneck pace.

The train is not stopping in 1980. Unless you make a time machine. We may destroy some farmers lives for the next 6 years if he stays in power but no positive change comes from unilateral decisions to the global economy.



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 08:11 PM
link   
a reply to: toysforadults

Inverted yield curves and budget deficit good.

Trade deficit bad.

MAGA



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 08:13 PM
link   
a reply to: Dfairlite

I agree certain aspects of the economy have gotten better by leaps and bounds however we still face major systemic issues

I think the market is way over sold due to stock buy backs so a day of reckoning is coming

With all the recent IPOs I can only imagine that day drawing closer
edit on 17-6-2019 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 08:15 PM
link   
a reply to: luthier

Well one of Trumps problems is he thinks he can deficit spend us out of recession

The China trade deal will get signed in 2020 I bet and the market will go over 30,000 right before voting



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 08:19 PM
link   

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: luthier



I have a 90 percent return hedging on economic downturn in my portfolio I control. From crypto to gold the economists know what is coming and so does the market.


Lol! On your $1,000? Good job!

Gold is up YoY about $23 (1.7%). Bitcoin (the benchmark for crypto) is up about 40%. Even from the 52 week lows gold is only up about 14%. So yeah, unless you have a crypto heavy account (which makes you a moron) and you bought at just the right time I'm calling BS. But hey I guess it's not impossible you got lucky and bought at just the right moment. Give it time and bitcoin will be $0.



I trade two a month or so HTGC and HVBTF alone made me 3 times my investment. HItachi, GLD, Texas instruments have all made more than their investment so not sure how moronic. Maybe moronic to take half out but it's part of the game.



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 08:33 PM
link   
a reply to: luthier

Cash is a position

Tim Sykes

No problem with being in cash when you are at the top of the market

But the Fed dropping rates will drive the market higher DOW ETFs probably a good bet be nice to catch the SPY calls on that announcement

I meant to catch the index calls on a china trade deal announcement
edit on 17-6-2019 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 09:41 PM
link   
a reply to: toysforadults

Cash turns to other stuff pretty quickly as well. The interest in my savings barely places with inflation. Like a new brush hog and tractor.
edit on 17-6-2019 by luthier because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 09:41 PM
link   

edit on 17-6-2019 by luthier because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 09:45 PM
link   
a reply to: toysforadults

That is the plan, but life often gets in the way. The debt is mounting at a record pace can't imagine what a couple hiccups would do to that.



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 09:49 PM
link   

originally posted by: luthier
a reply to: toysforadults

Cash turns to other stuff pretty quickly as well. The interest in my savings barely places with inflation. Like a new brush hog and tractor.


Yes but cash is great when everything around you is collapsing and the buble is deflating

Then you get to be the one who buys everything. Sure you can be in gold but you also need to be in cash because there may not be a buyer for that gold



posted on Jun, 17 2019 @ 09:50 PM
link   

originally posted by: luthier
a reply to: toysforadults

That is the plan, but life often gets in the way. The debt is mounting at a record pace can't imagine what a couple hiccups would do to that.


The debt problem is a huge problem almost every asset is over valued and the fed refuses to allow deflation creating ever bigger bubbles



posted on Jun, 18 2019 @ 05:53 AM
link   

originally posted by: luthier

originally posted by: toysforadults
www.scmp.com...

seekingalpha.com...

At best, the only way taxing something can reduce cost would probably be for China to devalue its currency

If taxes make the cost of goods go down lets tax everything


Welcome to the new era where trump has converted conservativesFROM 80's Democrats...


He made a believe out of me. I put other peoples signs in my yard last election.



posted on Jun, 18 2019 @ 06:24 AM
link   

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: luthier
a reply to: toysforadults

Cash turns to other stuff pretty quickly as well. The interest in my savings barely places with inflation. Like a new brush hog and tractor.


Yes but cash is great when everything around you is collapsing and the buble is deflating

Then you get to be the one who buys everything. Sure you can be in gold but you also need to be in cash because there may not be a buyer for that gold


No buyer for gold? At that point cash is going to be a problem as well. I agree though you need cash I just don't use it as a way to collect interest like people used to in cd's. Though you may be right about keeping more when you know the bubble will burst.




top topics



 
26
<< 1  2    4 >>

log in

join