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About That "Bad" Economic Data We Saw Friday

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posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 08:09 PM
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a reply to: Lumenari

Well... here's a point of view not sure if its accurate or not

www.nytimes.com...


But minimum wages are only part of the story. Ernie Tedeschi, an economist at Evercore ISI, estimates that the minimum-wage increases account for a quarter to a third of low-wage workers’ gains over the past three years. The rest is most likely a result of a tightening labor market that is forcing employers to raise pay even for workers at the bottom of the earnings ladder.
Ms. Gimbel noted that better-paying industries had experienced faster job growth in recent months, while the fastest wage growth had been in lower-paying industries. That could indicate that sectors like health care and manufacturing are snapping up workers, forcing retailers and restaurants to raise pay to compete.


I dont know... just a point of view




posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 08:24 PM
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originally posted by: Lumenari
a reply to: chr0naut

Or we could just look at where you are coming from...


New Zealand's unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 from 4.3 percent in the previous period, matching market expectations and close to its 10-year low. Unemployment Rate in New Zealand averaged 6.01 percent from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 11.20 percent in the third quarter of 1991 and a record low of 3.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.


So your unemployment rate is higher than ours and the total population on your island is less than some of our cities here.

Glass houses and all that...




I never made any spurious claims.

Our unemployment rate right now (4.2%) is the same as your unemployment rate in September 2017, nine months after Trump was elected.

In November 2018, New Zealand's unemployment rate was 3.9% actual, the same as the US rate (3.9%) was in April the same year.

New Zealand Unemployment Rate - Trading Economics

Current US Unemployment Rate Statistics and News

The statistic only really supports the unremarkableness of the Trump's economy in true international terms.

New Zealand, in September 2017, changed from a center right government (the National Party) with a strongly monetarist policy which had not held employment figures at the level of importance as the current government (the centre-left Labour Party). This may have had an effect on NZ Unemployment that we are currently recovering from.



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 08:54 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Zanti Misfit

Why is the Fed dropping rates?






How can they NOT Without seeming Totally Corrupt in the Press and to the Public ?
edit on 9-6-2019 by Zanti Misfit because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 09:15 PM
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a reply to: Zanti Misfit

Doesnt make sense



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 10:21 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

Manipulate a somewhat Booming U.S. Economy ? Just another Reason for the President to " End The Fed " ..........Hmm...



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 10:34 PM
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a reply to: Zanti Misfit

I'm trying to figure out why the Fed is dropping rates if the economy is booming?



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 05:33 AM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

The median worker's wage is moving closer to a poverty wage than moving away from it. Too many cartels and monopolies price fixing wages, products, and services with data analytics. That's what data analytics is for!



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 07:42 AM
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a reply to: chr0naut

Your first link is from august 2018. the UK wage growth was 3.1%. In august 2018 our wage growth was 3.5%. Over the last 12 months the UK's wage growth was 3.05%. The US was 3.17%. So we're not keeping pace, we're setting it.



But, that's another country, so let's "compare apples to apples" with previous US figures


I did that. I compared it with the prior 8 years. The economy is head and shoulders better.



Yeah, about 50/50... or less. Some things are positive.


The actual economic indicators are almost unanimously positive. The red arrows are on things like mortgage rates, gas prices and congressional budgets. You expect rising interest rates in good times. You expect higher gas prices in good times. Congress is addicted to spending and it's too bad. It will eventually screw us all over.



... and those two evaluations are only after the first year. We all know that some things have gone downhill from then


No, by most counts 2018 was better than 2017. The only thing that did worse in 2018 was the stock market.



So, all in all, Trump's economic miracle, isn't.


Wrong. Trump's economic miracle isn't just a glob of good or bad numbers. It's reviving industries that we were told were dead and never coming back. It's the renegotiation of trade deals. It's the tariffs to bring back american jobs that Barack said he'd need a "magic wand" to get back. It's bringing competition into the labor market, forcing wages up. All of that has been a smashing success.



He has been doing OK, but I suspect that is because he's had so little actual effect and that only now are his policies coming into effect.


You're obviously quite ignorant of what he has done.



Definitely government shutdown, stuffed up trade deals and trade wars are going to take a hit on the economy, but the effects lag the causes by a significant time.


LOL, the government shutdown grew the economy. The trade war with china has been going on for a year now. Inflation is dropping, not rising. Wages are growing, not shrinking. The labor market is fat and happy. The only place not having a great time right now is wall street and that's less to do with actual numbers and more to do with the uncertainty the trade war has brought them. BUY BUY BUY.



Current trends are starting to turn downwards, though but who knows, by next year things might change.


Not at all. The current trend is still very much upwards. You can have pullbacks in a trend that do not change the trend and that is what we are seeing right now. The important thing is that these pullback lows (if we are near them) are much higher than the previous highs.
edit on 10-6-2019 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 07:58 AM
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a reply to: toysforadults

It's their mandate. Maximize employment (doesn't get much more maximized than this). Keep inflation near target (2% always ongoing). Moderate interest rates (always ongoing).

IMHO, the fed cutting rates has less to do with an actual need to do it and more to prove to wall street and foreign governments that they're nimble enough to do it if it's needed. Inflation slowing down gives them an excuse.
edit on 10-6-2019 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 12:48 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

Doesnt max employment create inflation due to competition for workers?



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 01:15 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Lumenari

Speaking of glass houses since we know wage growth doesnt lead to inflation we should have no problem raising minimum wage right?

No, since minimum wage laws never help anyone, they only hurt...



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 01:33 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

Any increase in cost of goods should cause price increases, which we see as inflation. So yes, an increase in labor costs should lead to inflation. However, increasing the money supply (through open market operations like QE) also should have lead to inflation. Neither seems to be happening.

The only thing that I can think of that would explain both is our having reached such a high efficiency level in most sectors of the economy that we've saturated the market, everywhere. In other words, demand has reached terminal velocity and supply can exceed it. Automation makes this possible, if not plausible, which also explains why rising wages for workers isn't causing as much inflation as would be anticipated. In other words, human input into the process is such a small amount of the cost that a few percentage point increase in cost doesn't affect the bottom line cost much.

Of course that theory has a number of flaws that I can't overcome, but it covers more bases than some of the other theories I've seen posited.



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 01:43 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

If we follow the logic of supply side economics (I think) in theory this should actually lead to deflation as manufacturers produce more than they can sell leading them to drop prices to reduce inventory



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 01:50 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

So here's a good question

Are retailers going out of business because people aren't buying and is that why inflation is low?



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 03:12 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

If manufacturers don't scale up/down to meet demand that would be right. So for this to work out, manufacturers have to be scaling to meet demand while not exceeding it drastically. This is one of the flaws that I can't explain away in my theory. I can come up with more theories as to why it's happening but I don't have enough info to prove that it's actually the case. In some cases it's provably opposite. Look at DRAM. Prices of DRAM have been plummeting because the supply is exceeding demand.
edit on 10-6-2019 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 03:39 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults
I'm going to split the question into two parts



Are retailers going out of business because people aren't buying


In some cases I'd say yes, overall though, I'd say no. What we're seeing is a consolidation in retail. During the 90's and into the early 2k's retail was growing and the retail chains were increasing their costs and opening new locations. As ecommerce took bites out of retail those extra revenues that they used to get were no longer there. So the top heavy, poorly managed retail chains began to fold. We continue to see this happen. It's really a combination of factors from changing tastes in consumer goods (much more electronic focused) to poor management (which couldn't adapt to the changing tastes nor the changing landscape with ecommerce).

The reason I'd say yes at all is shipping. Ecommerce (under the amazon model) has heavy shipping costs. Traditionally retail was able to beat ecommerce on price because shipping everything to a store and having your customers come to you is much more economical (from the viewpoint of the retailer) than it is to ship your product individually to each customer. While there have been gains made in making shipping more economical, it's still not able to compete with retail yet. So those dollars you and I spend on shipping would have likely gone to retailers 20 years ago. So in that sense, yes, people are buying less retail.



and is that why inflation is low?


It's an interesting thought, and in some aspects it is probably true. The price of traditional retail consumer goods has not inflated too much (based on personal experience, I haven't looked at the numbers so I could be wrong here). In many cases the prices have deflated. Even from 5 years ago. Just as an example the bread I buy is the same brand I bought 5 years ago and it's gone from 2.20 a loaf down to 1.90. That's a 15 percent deflation. So the question is, why did the price decrease? Was it because people weren't buying it? Or did they automate and/or increase capacity which drove their prices down? Are they selling more loaves for less profit per loaf but more overall?

There are a ton of factors to consider. Retail is still a growing sector, it's just not growing like it used to. Revenues year over year are still in positive territory, but they are declining. In the 90's and 2000's they were growing at 6-8% on average, year over year. Now they're growing at 3-6%. Is that just a function of our aging population and/or slowing population growth?

Honestly I could spend a few hours pouring over data and analyzing it and I'd still not be able to pin it on any one thing or probably even a handful of things. It would take a hundred pages to do all of the proper analysis and days or weeks to do enough research to pin it down when you get into specific sectors and what is ailing them.



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 04:42 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

I'm having trouble pinning things down as well this year has been interesting to say the least I've also watched closer than ever since 2018

New fundamentals in play theres going to be big changes coming soon

The Jupiter retrograde with uranus and Pluto influence if I remember correctly will continue to nail us with surprises

When Notre Dame burned the day of or after Jupiter retrograde I knew there was going to be some economic events related to banking that pop up out of the blue

This drop in rates is only the first event I'm expecting a banking scandal to hit the news real soon



posted on Jun, 10 2019 @ 05:50 PM
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originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: Lumenari
a reply to: chr0naut

Or we could just look at where you are coming from...


New Zealand's unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 from 4.3 percent in the previous period, matching market expectations and close to its 10-year low. Unemployment Rate in New Zealand averaged 6.01 percent from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 11.20 percent in the third quarter of 1991 and a record low of 3.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.


So your unemployment rate is higher than ours and the total population on your island is less than some of our cities here.

Glass houses and all that...




I never made any spurious claims.

Our unemployment rate right now (4.2%) is the same as your unemployment rate in September 2017, nine months after Trump was elected.

In November 2018, New Zealand's unemployment rate was 3.9% actual, the same as the US rate (3.9%) was in April the same year.


Who knew that Trump would make New Zealand Great Again! You're welcome



posted on Jun, 11 2019 @ 12:32 AM
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originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: chr0naut

Your first link is from august 2018. the UK wage growth was 3.1%. In august 2018 our wage growth was 3.5%. Over the last 12 months the UK's wage growth was 3.05%. The US was 3.17%. So we're not keeping pace, we're setting it.


We were talking, previously, about unemployment figures, which are different to wage growth.

Wage growth, to most business, is an opposite force to taking on new hires. To retain staff, you usually have to have wage growth, especially when businesses around you are hiring (and potentially poaching your good hires). If you take on more staff, you usually have to reign in wage growth to cover the rise in the numbers of wages paid (at least until income rises to cover the new hires).

To change tack and talk about wage growth because the unemployment figures are actually so similar, isn't a valid refutation of my point because the unemployment figures are still similar.



But, that's another country, so let's "compare apples to apples" with previous US figures
I did that. I compared it with the prior 8 years. The economy is head and shoulders better.


Exactly how big is 'head and shoulders'?

Yes, there has been some improvements but fuzzy measures don't help. Some trends have been decidedly downward.

US economy: statistics at a glance - Financial Times

GDP growth is happening, since slowing right down in 2016, but it has been gradual, not spectacular.



Yeah, about 50/50... or less. Some things are positive.
The actual economic indicators are almost unanimously positive. The red arrows are on things like mortgage rates, gas prices and congressional budgets. You expect rising interest rates in good times. You expect higher gas prices in good times. Congress is addicted to spending and it's too bad. It will eventually screw us all over.


Things are oscillating, like they always do. There is growth and there are losses. Overall, there has been some moderate growth but when compared with genuine spectacular growth that we have seen in the past, it's not.



... and those two evaluations are only after the first year. We all know that some things have gone downhill from then
No, by most counts 2018 was better than 2017. The only thing that did worse in 2018 was the stock market.


No, the overall economic growth rate was better in 2017 according to the Congressional Budget Office.



So, all in all, Trump's economic miracle, isn't.
Wrong. Trump's economic miracle isn't just a glob of good or bad numbers. It's reviving industries that we were told were dead and never coming back. It's the renegotiation of trade deals. It's the tariffs to bring back american jobs that Barack said he'd need a "magic wand" to get back. It's bringing competition into the labor market, forcing wages up. All of that has been a smashing success.


It isn't an economic miracle.

Trump was supposed to, and expected to, keep the economy operational.

He is (mostly) doing what he is supposed to but the 'over the top' stuff is BS.



He has been doing OK, but I suspect that is because he's had so little actual effect and that only now are his policies coming into effect.
You're obviously quite ignorant of what he has done.


Definitely government shutdown, stuffed up trade deals and trade wars are going to take a hit on the economy, but the effects lag the causes by a significant time.
LOL, the government shutdown grew the economy.


How could it?


The trade war with china has been going on for a year now.


No, Trump instigated some stiff tariffs which changed the situation by hundreds of billions of dollars.

He changed US trading from free trade, in almost all markets, to bilateral trade.

The tariffs imposed by Trump will cause equivalent action on the US domestic economy. Everything imported will cost a fortune and in that market, American businesses, unconstrained by trade, will put their prices up. Without question.

Trump’s tariffs are equivalent to one of the largest tax increases in decades - CNBC Economy


Inflation is dropping, not rising.


Just no.


Wages are growing, not shrinking. The labor market is fat and happy. The only place not having a great time right now is wall street and that's less to do with actual numbers and more to do with the uncertainty the trade war has brought them. BUY BUY BUY.


"Buy low, sell high" is the mantra, so, yeah, buy now, quickly.



Current trends are starting to turn downwards, though but who knows, by next year things might change.
Not at all. The current trend is still very much upwards. You can have pullbacks in a trend that do not change the trend and that is what we are seeing right now. The important thing is that these pullback lows (if we are near them) are much higher than the previous highs.


No. 2017 was great, 2018 started slowing, 2019 even slower. Still improving, but decelerating.

Sears, GoPro, FitBit, Remington, Neiman Marcus, Payless, Home Depot, Macy's, Subway, Burger King, Victoria's Secret, David's Bridal, Tesla Stores, Guitar Center, Home Depot, GNC & Starbucks - all closed or failing... and that was before the tariffs were raised.

This year is what did them in. Sure, there are 1,000 reasons, but things are NOT booming.

edit on 11/6/2019 by chr0naut because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 11 2019 @ 12:50 AM
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a reply to: chr0naut

I see desperation is steroidal controlled 😎



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