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About That "Bad" Economic Data We Saw Friday

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posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 06:02 PM
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Oh yes, we all saw it. Only 75k jobs added!? Wage growth slowing!?!? It's the economic apocalypse! The media couldn't be more thrilled!

Well let's take a closer look. Here's the biggest lie about it, wage growth. Yes, wage growth slowed, but lets take a a look at a chart showing wage growth from 2007 to now:


Well as you can see, it's still extremely high compared to the rest of the post recession recovery and almost as high as it was before the recession (just a tiny bit short). If you delve deeper into the numbers it gets better though. Over the last 12 months the average wage growth rate has been 3.17%.

Now many lefties will run to inflation in hopes of saving them from reality, but the truth is, inflation is steady at 1.5-2% (FED targets 2%). So they'll find no safe haven there. The other interesting thing is that we were supposed to be seeing higher inflation because of the tariff's on china. Yet, we're seeing the opposite. Last year the inflation rate was 2.15%. So far in 2019 it's 1.5%. Combined with the wage growth this is absolutely fantastic.

Now onto the 75k number. Yep it sucks overall. There's no getting around that. However, there is some context to add to it. There are currently over a million more job openings than there are job seekers. So any number is only going to add depth to that queue. The fact is, the reason job creation matters is so that people have options and opportunities, so there is competition for labor. We have that and it is healthy. That said, if we have a few months of ~100k job growth, we may have a bigger problem, but on its own, 75k isn't too worrying.

One other thing, the industries where job growth took place are good paying industries. professional and business services added 33,000. Healthcare added 16,000. Construction added 4,000. Manufacturing added 3,000. The low paying retail sector lost 7,600.

Then when you dive into the unemployment numbers you get the headline rate which was 3.6%. But even better than that was those without college degrees. That unemployment rate is at 3.4%. So this economy is VERY good for everyone. Not just the rich and the educated, but even the "uneducated."

Keeping with unemployment, part-time workers looking for full time work decreased by 299k. That's huge. It is probably due to seasonal construction and should be met with a little caution, but it is certainly good news for those 300k people.

IOW the economy is still flying high.

Read the full report here




posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 06:07 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

I Work in Construction , a Painting Contractor . My Personal Income has Soared over this past year due to President Trumps Economic Policies . I Pay my Workers 25 Percent More than I did 2 Years ago . Their " Skills " Deserve More , and so do Mine , but give it Time , the Working Man in this Country has a " MAN " in the White House that Finally has their Backs .


TRUMP 2020 , A DONE DEAL .........



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 06:12 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

" IOW the economy is still flying high."


It Will Continue to do so Despite the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Round Table Anti-American SCUMBAGS who Implore Everyone with their Propaganda for More Foreign " CHEAP LABOR " . ENOUGH Already !




GOD BLESS The American Worker !



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 06:12 PM
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a reply to: [post=24416677]Dfairlite[/post



If this keeps up , that 22 Trillion Deficit could be gone in the Next 15 Years if the Next President in 2024 Continues President Trumps Economic Policies ........
edit on 9-6-2019 by Zanti Misfit because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:06 PM
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www.bloomberg.com...

Just seems weird that rate cuts are being priced into the market

Usually when the job market and wage growth is soaring as you say that creates inflation due to competition for workers

Wage growth = cost being passed onto the consumer = higher inflation = rate hike

But hey, the market seems to love bad data as long as Trump is president



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:14 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

But wasn't Trump's economic influence supposed to make America great again, you know, "this is the greatest economy in the HISTORY of America" (in his words)?

Let's compare just the UK's wage growth (the same figure in the graph in the OP) in the same period:

UK wage growth fastest for nearly 10 years - BBC News

Well, at least he's kept pace.

But, that's another country, so let's "compare apples to apples" with previous US figures:

Economic policy of Donald Trump, Statistical Summary From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

Yeah, about 50/50... or less. Some things are positive.

What has Donald Trump achieved for the US economy 12 months after winning the Presidency? - The Independent

Trump's Economic Scorecard: One Year Since Inauguration - Forbes

... and those two evaluations are only after the first year. We all know that some things have gone downhill from then.

So, all in all, Trump's economic miracle, isn't. He has been doing OK, but I suspect that is because he's had so little actual effect and that only now are his policies coming into effect.

Definitely government shutdown, stuffed up trade deals and trade wars are going to take a hit on the economy, but the effects lag the causes by a significant time.

Current trends are starting to turn downwards, though but who knows, by next year things might change.

edit on 9/6/2019 by chr0naut because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:16 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

You know what, I'm not going to mean girl you on this. lol. Because TBH, I'm not entirely sure why inflation has been so tame. I have a theory but it doesn't explain everything so I need to keep working on it. However, we should all be glad this is playing out how it is. The FED pummeled the market with money for 6 years. Interests rates were basically zero. The balance sheet was massive. There was waaaaay too much money out there. For all intents and purposes inflation should have hit 5% during this time period, given the steady (but lackluster) job and wage growth.

When inflation didn't respond to the stimulus, it imperiled the wind down of the balance sheets. We could possibly see deflation because of that. Yet, it hasn't happened. The fed has been winding down for quite a while now and the balance sheet is very manageable and we still don't have anything but a solid 1-2% inflation number. It's really quite miraculous.

I don't think a rate cut is going to help much. Well, it will help the stock market, but that's about it. The economy is already going crazy. I think the rate cut talk is really just a positioning maneuver to give trump better leverage with china. Letting china know that the fed will ensure our economy keeps rolling.

Anyway, that's my take.



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:21 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

Rush Limbaugh put it best during his show this past Friday. If the economy created ZERO jobs in May, there are still 1.2 million more jobs open than there are adults to fill them.

As long as wages outpace inflation, job creation can flatline.



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:25 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

It's very odd that there has been wage growth (I actually see it in my local market although I dont work in the local market) but low inflation

So what is happening though is retail stores are closing LIKE CRAZY

fred.stlouisfed.org...

Ecommerce has been growing rapidly but still is only %10 of the market, so 90% of retail is taking massive hits

I'm wondering.. the company I work for is automating industrial labor and it's doing it reaaalllyy fast

I'm wondering what we aren't seeing in the data here what are we missing because theres a piece of the puzzle that doesnt fit



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:25 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

"Usually when the job market and wage growth is soaring as you say that creates inflation due to competition for workers "



That is Not the Case in June 2019 . Foreign Cheap Labor is Still Pouring into the Country due to Gaps in the U.S. / Mexican Border . People from ALL OVER the World , Including the Merchants of Terror , are heading to Mexico for Easy Entry into the U.S. . America is Under Siege , does Half the Country Even REALIZE the Economic Worst Case Scenario that Entails ?
edit on 9-6-2019 by Zanti Misfit because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:27 PM
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a reply to: carewemust

So why is the Fed going to create inflation by dropping rates?

I know my mining stock is real low right now I'm going to buy more



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:28 PM
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a reply to: Zanti Misfit

Why is the Fed dropping rates?



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:31 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults
www.bloomberg.com...

Just seems weird that rate cuts are being priced into the market

Usually when the job market and wage growth is soaring as you say that creates inflation due to competition for workers

Wage growth = cost being passed onto the consumer = higher inflation = rate hike

But hey, the market seems to love bad data as long as Trump is president


Since wages are up and inflation is lower, it seems your premise has been proven wrong because it is too simplistic.

This is no surprise to me.

To the OP, they never consider job advancement in the numbers.

Now that there are more jobs then there are employees, not only is wage growth within a job sector happening (supply and demand) but upward mobility is happening within job sectors as well.

My business is going gangbusters despite lower oil prices.

So I say let's keep the ball rolling!!!




posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:34 PM
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a reply to: Lumenari

So raising minimum wage wouldn't cause inflation is that your new position?

Wouldn't that hilariously funny if you had to take that position



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:37 PM
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a reply to: chr0naut

Or we could just look at where you are coming from...


New Zealand's unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 from 4.3 percent in the previous period, matching market expectations and close to its 10-year low. Unemployment Rate in New Zealand averaged 6.01 percent from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 11.20 percent in the third quarter of 1991 and a record low of 3.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.


So your unemployment rate is higher than ours and the total population on your island is less than some of our cities here.

Glass houses and all that...




posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:38 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Lumenari

So raising minimum wage wouldn't cause inflation is that your new position?

Wouldn't that hilariously funny if you had to take that position


It would be hilariously funny to you because you don't understand the difference.

Obviously you don't, since median wages rose and inflation nationally fell...

You'll figure it out someday.

Keep reading!!!!




posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:40 PM
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a reply to: Lumenari

Speaking of glass houses since we know wage growth doesnt lead to inflation we should have no problem raising minimum wage right?

Just curious



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:45 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Lumenari

Speaking of glass houses since we know wage growth doesnt lead to inflation we should have no problem raising minimum wage right?

Just curious


You're not curious... you're trolling.

You're not doing it well... but you're trying and I guess that counts for something.

So in your reading tonight factor in skilled labor and volume of product vs base cost.




posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:50 PM
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a reply to: Lumenari

So employees are producing more is that what you are saying?

tradingeconomics.com...


A key factor weighing on the headline reading was the softest expansion of output since June 2016. May data signalled only a marginal rise in production that was often linked to clearing backlogs of previously-placed orders


So it's not because of manufacturing...

What else could it be?



posted on Jun, 9 2019 @ 07:54 PM
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a reply to: Lumenari

Just curious can you provide a source that states it was skilled workers who were the largest contributing factor to wage growth and increased production which to be honest I'm assuming that's what you are indicating since you hardly ever assert something with information we can read to validate your point of view



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