Asteroid Headed for Earth, Possibly Las Vegas

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk


All for it since it will inadvertently destroy evidence in the process.

Two other posters will likely support my viewpoint.

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Statistics and probabilities :-) Las Vegas odds eh? Here's one for you. The chances of getting a bad pacemaker lead is one in 1000. The chances of getting two bad pacemaker leads out of three operations on the same person is 1 in a million. The odds of it happening to the same person twice in a row is 1 in a billion. My wife, they say, got two bad lower ventricle leads in a row (there are two separate leads).

So it seems the odds are now better that sucker will strike the planet as stats and probs has gone wonkey. Be afraid, be very afraid, doom porn is incoming.

Cheers - Dave

a reply to: Zcustosmorum

Additionally, been saying for years that Asteroid detection has always been bad, Chelyabinsk, Russia proved that, as did Asteroid 2018 GE3

Depends on size of object and what part of sky coming from

f below a certain threshold will be missed

If coming from "daylight" side, will be lo lost in solar glare

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk
Anything you would do or play in Vegas has a higher odds chances that you wont win then that, even the cheapest slot slot machines have a way higher chance that you wont win, then that meteor has of hitting you while playing at slots.

One in seven thousand is pretty good odds at anything you would find in Las Vegas or in life in general. I mean when your chances at being injured by a toilet is one in ten thousand, or being involved or even dying in a car crash accident is in the one in 10 thousand range as well.

Them is good odds, that you will die by said meteor apocalypse.

And if they made asteroid defense systems with the odds of that which are in Vegas that they will actually work and do anything to stop said asteroid. Well we would be dead for sure at the first one that comes our way.

originally posted by: Archivalist
Football field size? At a low enough velocity, that's in missile defense territory. Aka, small enough to be feasibly vaporized by man made weaponry.

Remember, the one in Armageddon, was the size of Texas. A single football field asteroid is something we could damage control, with surface to air. Not a big deal.

Probably a standardized thought but reality is much different.. ICBMs can't get there.. Notice they launch a warhead into a parabolic low earth (not really a orbit) and they are out of fuel.. Rockets launching something to the space station not enough fuel either.. Now if they had a Mars rocket or maybe even a Moon rocket setting around they might be able to deliver some type of a payload to an NEO if they knew it was coming ...There is much debate even on what type of payload if any should be carried.. With the odds of us being like the dinosaurs pretty darn good it is amazing we find ourselves in the position we are in.... why the governments do not instigate a real planetary defense effort is just plain stupid IMO.

I have no doubt that if something hits and destroys something man has built then it will be a priority... but until then progress is very slow...even after such an event there will be those saying it is so rare why worry...

a reply to: 727Sky

I dont think humans have the capacity to deal with such things as movies would make it seem.

Take this asteroid that the op says there is a 1 in 7000 change of hitting Earth. How would they even know that or came up with those numbers.

By bouncing lazers off it?

Or by questimation on the dots on there screen? or the light refraction based on the telescopes they used? Who knows right? And worse, who knows if there actually right?

Right?

But lets say there right, and there is a 1 in 7000 chance that it does hit earth, and even though nothing was mentioned that it would hit Vegas in the link, as in now way would they be able to tell were it would hit even if they saw it. Lets say that it it is headed there towards Vegas, and that there is a 1 in 7000 change that latter this year, like they say there is that 1 in 7000 change that it would hit.

So that means that if you were in Vegas playing the tables and slot machines, during or around that time. You would have a much much bigger chance of being crispy critters and seeing first hand what a asteroid impact would look like, then you would of winning any of the games there and striking it rich, or even coming out even.

I wouldn't get hung up on the current odds, as it's a very preliminary guess due to the very short "observation arc" of just 10 days. Basically, the asteroid hasn't been seen since 2006 when it was discovered, so it's very much a guessing game until we "recover" this asteroid and calculate a better trajectory.

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

You up for a poker game ?

a reply to: wildespace

serious question 'cos I dont know. Since we sighted it in 2006...are we not tracking it somehow...? is it even possible to track it ?

originally posted by: MarioOnTheFly
a reply to: wildespace

serious question 'cos I dont know. Since we sighted it in 2006...are we not tracking it somehow...? is it even possible to track it ?

Looks like they lost it from view just 10 days after discovering it, so it wasn't possible to track it since then. I'm guessing it's because this asteroid was very far away and very dim.

en.wikipedia.org...

So I guess the astronomers will be on the lookout for this asteroid, in order to get new observations and calculate a more accurate trajectory.

That's the different between Las Vegas and astronomy - the impact odds change depending on factors like how long we've been tracking an asteroid for.

a reply to: wildespace


Thanks for the link.

Looks like they lost it from view just 10 days after discovering it, so it wasn't possible to track it since then. I'm guessing it's because this asteroid was very far away and very dim.

here's what Im thinking. Based on last trajectory, we should be able to predict where it should be now, if the trajectory hasnt changed due to some body's influence, right ?

I see now..it's 30 meters in diameter...hardly a stadium size like Clay claimed in OP.

So...can 30 meters penetrate the atmosphere without breaking up ? and how much damage can 30 meters do ? I'm guessing a lot if it hits a large city directly...but what if it drops in the ocean or in a desert. What would we expect ?

originally posted by: Archivalist
Football field size? At a low enough velocity, that's in missile defense territory. Aka, small enough to be feasibly vaporized by man made weaponry.

Remember, the one in Armageddon, was the size of Texas. A single football field asteroid is something we could damage control, with surface to air. Not a big deal.

Thats not exactly how surface to air missiles work lol.

Besides that point it also depends on what its made of, it could have no effect at all or cause considerably more dmg to the area of impact.

And onto that if they payload has to be too big, youre looking at a possible low altitude EMP , which could be considerably worse than just letting it impact

Youre also not taking into account velocity

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

originally posted by: galadofwarthethird
a reply to: Flyingclaydisk
Anything you would do or play in Vegas has a higher odds chances that you wont win then that, even the cheapest slot slot machines have a way higher chance that you wont win, then that meteor has of hitting you while playing at slots.

One in seven thousand is pretty good odds at anything you would find in Las Vegas or in life in general. I mean when your chances at being injured by a toilet is one in ten thousand, or being involved or even dying in a car crash accident is in the one in 10 thousand range as well.

Them is good odds, that you will die by said meteor apocalypse.

And if they made asteroid defense systems with the odds of that which are in Vegas that they will actually work and do anything to stop said asteroid. Well we would be dead for sure at the first one that comes our way.

Thank you. This was pretty much exactly my point in the OP, hence the comparison.

It does beg some pretty interesting questions though, doesn't it?

I seriously doubt we can create something which has better than Vegas odds as a defense. To draw an analogy...there's no counting cards in this game, you have to win on the first deal of the cards with a new dealer and a freshly shuffled deck. Or, just red or black doesn't count, you have to pick the actual number. Or, dealer has a ace showing, and you've got 17.

One roughly the size of a football field could obliterate New York, causing a 7.7-magnitude earthquake that might be felt than 1,000 miles away.

www.google.com...

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

I "could" spontaneously turn into a lego brick, but it's unlikely to happen.

"According to current modeling, it's likely that 2006 QV89, which is on the risk list but not the priority list, will pass Earth at a distance of more than 4.2 million miles. The ESA does note that the likelihood of its model being off is less than one-hundredth of one percent."

FFS, stop scaremongering.

a reply to: ziplock9000

I "could" spontaneously turn into a lego brick, but it's unlikely to happen.

"According to current modeling, it's likely that 2006 QV89, which is on the risk list but not the priority list, will pass Earth at a distance of more than 4.2 million miles. The ESA does note that the likelihood of its model being off is less than one-hundredth of one percent."

FFS, stop scaremongering.

Reading the OP = A lost art!

"FFS", that wasn't even what the OP was about! And, had you cared enough to take the time to actually READ the OP, you would have seen I clearly stated in the opening paragraph that the asteroid was going to pass well outside the orbit of the Moon. I also posted a link to the very same article you just quoted, where this was also clearly stated for all to see.

So next time..."FFS"...please actually READ the OP!

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk
I find this interesting as I have always had my eye to the sky. I figure since we live in the heart of the Milky Way, which is essentially a huge debris field, that our chances of getting hit by something is pretty good.

As we pass through the galactic equator and eventually the galactic plane, those odds should go up immensely, so I imagine the increase in the number of impressive sights in the sky are inevitable. I would think that research into the means to deflect or prevent a catastrophic encounter, would be on the front burners for all nations. May even be a good reason for them to put their differences aside and to work together.

(in reply to allaroundyou and flyingclaydisk)


Dudes. really?

An old man can get you the interwebs answers you seek.

I went to google and found out Henderson NV is about 16 miles from Vegas.

Then I went to Purdue University's Impact! Earth website. I chose a porous meteor coming in at 45 degree angle, coming in at 43 Km/s (middling speed)

it shows an impact with the force of 173 MT, along the order of a SS72 soviet ICBM.

Henderson won't get any flaming chunks of rock, but...

The air blast will arrive approximately 1.31 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 37600 Pa = 0.376 bars = 5.34 psi
Max wind velocity: 77 m/s = 172 mph
Sound Intensity: 91 dB (May cause ear pain)

Damage Description:
Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.
Glass windows will shatter.
Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.

You guys should maybe go by the survival! forum a little more frequently

a reply to: Graysen

So, I hope this post was in fun, because otherwise...WOW...it's shocking how many people fail to read the OP!!



ETA...I could care less about LV. My OP only referenced LV because of the gambling aspect. The asteroid in question is going to pass FAR from the Earth, but there are "odds" that it may not.

My whole OP was about measure to deflect asteroids which might have better "odds" hitting the Earth...Las Vegas odds. And, then the "odds" of deflecting an object from hitting the Earth.

The OP had nothing to do with an asteroid hitting Las Vegas. Las Vegas was only referenced due to the gambling odds they put on...everything!

Sheesh!