So, there's a "football field sized" asteroid headed for Earth. It's known as 2006 QV89. They say it only has a 1 in 7000 chance of hitting earth
and probably won't get closer than 4.2 million miles to Earth. For comparison, the Moon is 238,000 miles away, so it will likely be well outside the
orbit of the Moon. But, like Las Vegas, this is based on odds of the calculations being correct, meaning there is a possibility the calculations
might not be correct too. The European Space Agency (ESA) calls these NEO's, or Near Earth Objects.
In June of 2018 NASA released a report with plans on how to deal with NEO's. This report recommends, among other things, to develop technology to
"deflect" NEO's away from Earth.
This brings up a fundamental question...
Let's say (hypothetically) that mankind is able to develop a technology to deflect NEO asteroids and comets away from Earth. These technologies will
always have the potential to not work as planned. In other words, they have Las Vegas type odds around their success.
So, on the one hand we have an asteroid which may, or may not, impact Earth. And, on the other hand, we have a technology which may, or may not, work
Intuition tells us that the longer period of time we have to deflect an inbound object the higher the probability of success, right? More time means
further distances from Earth. Conversely, the accuracy of predictions of the path of an inbound object improve as the object approaches Earth (i.e.
This new asteroid deflection technology may actually go horribly wrong and actually direct an asteroid which was going to miss Earth to impact with it
instead. Again, this is a possibility and therefore there are odds of this happening. We can play around with asteroids which have no possibility of
hitting Earth to develop this technology, but these asteroids will perform differently than ones which are influenced by the mass of Earth. So, we
will only know for sure the technology works properly when we try to deflect an asteroid which really is headed towards Earth.
Now to the question...
So at what point do we play God and make a decision which could affect all mankind on planet Earth?
Obviously, the decision is based on the mass / size of the asteroid in question, but it is also based on the odds of it actually impacting Earth as
well. Do we make the decision when the odds are 1 in 500, or 1 in 50...or 1 in 2?
And what if something goes wrong, and the asteroid definitely does impact Earth when there were still odds it might not have if we'd done nothing?
Talk about "All-In", wow, puts a new perspective on that term doesn't it?
So Las Vegas and its odds definitely figure heavily into the defense of Earth from asteroids and ELE (Extermination Level Event).
edit on 6/6/2019 by Flyingclaydisk because: (no reason given)