"Don't say we didn't warn you".

The title refers to the growing tariff war between China and the USA, some 300 billion dollars and counting in goods and materials from both sides are now under the thumb of tariffed goods.

A state wide paper released by the Chinese government was released which came with some famous last words before major conflict with China.
This is all speculated as a response to the ban of Huawei devices and US based company's banned from their free enterprise rights in the name of national security of course.

A commentary in People's Daily, the mouthpiece of China's ruling Communist Party, today said 'Don't say we didn't warn you!' - which is a diplomatic term usually reserved by Beijing to signal the start of an armed warfare

link

It is now speculated china will put tariffs on rare earth metals. Which are important for most modern tech. They just so happen to produce over 80% of the worlds supply.

I guess it would be a big deal if they follow through with it.

The threat to weaponize strategic materials ratchets up the tension between the world’s two biggest economies before an expected meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the G-20 meeting next month. It shows how China is weighing its options after the U.S. blacklisted Huawei Technologies Co., cutting off the supply of American components it needs to make its smartphones and networking gear.

link

This is all just unfolding, and this tariff war is really ramping up. I am now wondering if the current US admin knew this would be a possible course for China to take. Did they think it wouldn't last this long?

Mexico and Canada have already resolved the steel and aluminum tariffs and the US has backed down.
I feel like it was a move to focus on China.

I also find it interesting how Trump talks about eliminating electromagentic catapult systems on aircraft carriers while visiting Japan.

Anyways, just an update.
But for those who are into investing in the mining industry I'd look into an island off Japan it might lead to something if Trump continues this tariff war and wins 2020. Hint, it has to do with rare earth metals.

a reply to: strongfp

And the yield curve has inverted:
www.bloomberg.com...

And stocks fall to 12 week low:
www.bloomberg.com...

“After months of over-optimism, investors are finally realizing a quick fix isn’t likely on US-China trade,” said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research for FTSE Russell. “In fact, an escalation in trade tensions increasingly seems more likely than a near-term resolution.”

And now, warnings of a recession:
fbdark.com...

Morgan Stanley warned Tuesday that the U.S. is coming dangerously close to a recession as renewed trade tensions and a slump in economic data put U.S. profits and economic growth at risk. “Recent data points suggest US earnings and economic risk is greater than most investors may think,” wrote Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson, CNBC reported. Many recent reports reflect April data, “which means it weakened before the re-escalation of trade tensions,” Wilson continued. “In addition, numerous leading companies may be starting to throw in the towel on the second half rebound–something we have been expecting but we believe many investors are not.”

We shall see what we shall see said the blind man.

a reply to: strongfp

Any source or precedent for Beijing using the phrase “don’t say we didn’t warn you” as a precursor for armed conflict? I get it’s claimed in the link and not by yourself though that seems quite a grandiose claim.

This will all go back and forth a bit then fizzle our in my opinion.

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

Hence why I said speculated. But if you search the phrase it's all over every news source.

From what I understand is that it's more of a secret phrase used within China to warn its citizens of tough times to come.

Become worried if China puts a tariff on US oil.

a reply to: TonyS

And the yield curve has inverted

As a matter of fact, the curve was inverted before the past 7 recessions.

www.thestreet.com...

Interesting fact above.

a reply to: strongfp

It is now speculated china will put tariffs on rare earth metals. Which are important for most modern tech. They just so happen to produce over 80% of the worlds supply.

www.globalresearch.ca...


Import dependency

Now the next question is to what degree is the US economy, especially its defense industrial base dependent on imports of China rare earths? The answer is almost 100%. According to a December, 2017 report by the US Geological Survey, China today supplies more than 90% of world rare earths. This has been the case since the late 1990s when the Government of China prioritized its development of the vital minerals. The rare earth elements group are generally denoted as 15 elements that range in atomic number from 57 (lanthanum) to 71 (lutetium), commonly referred to as the “lanthanides.” Some listings include Yttrium as well. The strongest magnets known, neodymium-iron-boron magnets, use rare earths, as do catalysts in petroleum refining.

Its amazing the US is so dependent on China for thee minerals.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

Hence why I said speculated. But if you search the phrase it's all over every news source.

From what I understand is that it's more of a secret phrase used within China to warn its citizens of tough times to come.

When, all of a sudden, everyone in the media is aware of a secret code phrase that they magnanimously share with their viewers, they are pushing a narrative.

I remember when the OK hand sign meant "OK", now it means "I'm a white supremacist."

I remember when there were just Latinos, now we have White Latinos, which are bad guys. Who knew? (Besides the media)

I wish someone would just leak a list of all these secret code phrases to the public so we would know in advance when we hear them. That way, when the waiter says, "Don't say I didn't warn you about the Kung Pow Chicken" I know he's about to kick my ass.

Next month and through July is going to open some eyes.

Especially the eyes of folks who think the economy is doing great.

Don't say you weren't warned.

a reply to: VictorVonDoom

The upside down ok symbol is a 4chan meme for white supremacy.

Keep up with the memes, and you stay ahead of the hate.

Some of you people are just fear mongerers because of your TDS.

Weaponizing REM won't do anything and just because they are a major supplyer doesn't mean crap.

The US also mines REM and so do other friendly countries, Allies.

Excerpt:

"Rare earth metals are also produced in U.S. friendly locations such as Australia and India, and there would be incentive to ramp up output if Chinese export restrictions drove prices up. Also electronics recycling to recapture rare metals becomes economic when prices spike. (Rare earth prices, for additional context, are measured in dollars per kilogram, or roughly 20 to 40 times more than a ton of steel costs.)" Et al.

"The U.S. also ramped up production of Rare Earth Metals in 2018. Bastnaesite, a rare earth fluorocarbonate mineral, is being mined in Mountain Pass, Calif. The mine restarted in the first quarter of 2018 after being put on care-and-maintenance status in the fourth quarter of 2015." Et al

"But the total volume of rare earth imports is tiny. The U.S. imported about 10,000 metric tons of Rare Earth Metals in 2018 worth about $160 million, or 0.001% of U.S. gross domestic product. America, for additional context, makes almost 90 million metric tons of steel each year. Rare earth metals are a small, niche market." Et al


Source: www.barrons.com...

Great article, encourage all to read.

a reply to: strongfp

Methinks China is about to watch in horror as the US government reclaims Mountain Pass mine from Shenghe Holdings and informs JHL Capital and the state of California that the mine will start operating at capacity ASAP. China can't win this. The only reason they produce 80% of the world's rare Earth elements is because the regulations and restrictions both the feds and California placed on Mountain Pass made their product financially unable to compete in an open market against the artificially backrested Chinese offerings. Remove the shackles and watch the US humiliate China over this.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: VictorVonDoom

The upside down ok symbol is a 4chan meme for white supremacy.

Keep up with the memes, and you stay ahead of the hate.

Please don't tell me you fell for that 4Chan troll attempt. It's not a serious meme, it was intended to make the media look like asses and oh boy, did it ever work.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

It's ridiculous that people don't do counter research and instead just react to a story and scream, "haha don't say we didn't say so".

Like, counter research before you post.

Weaponizing REM was NEVER GOING TO WORK.

"War" in this regard almost certainly won't be military in nature. It doesn't have to be. China is holding too many of the cards for this to amount to much.

China controls the manufacturing of tech. At least good tech. The kind of tech that keeps America in Xbox's, iPhones and smart appliances - all comes from China. Even "Made in America" level electronics almost all run on Chinese silicon.

The US can't compete. We don't have the infrastructure to do so even if we wanted to. It would take decades and untold billions of dollars for the US to create a solution to places like TSMC.

Besides here's the truth of tariffs... If you're shopping for a Playstation 5 next year? Sony won't take a hit to their profit margin. TSMC won't take the hit. The AMD Radeon Group won't take it. No corporate or government entity on either side is going to absorb it. Consumers will. American consumers.

Laughing and preparing to type "Video games are for children and cucks. Jokes on you!!!"?

Stop.

Realize that whatever you're about to type that comment into is using silicon.

Look around and think about everything else you own that does as well. Computer, TV, smart appliances, cable box, Internet router, your modern car, your cell phone, the fancy electronic fence you've got around your yard, the Google or Amazon voice control device you use to turn on your lights... The Mr Coffee you program to brew you coffee each morning... Your surround sound stereo...

Walk around your house and count the things that all just became 30% more expensive to replace if need be.

I have a sneaking feeling that this trade war won't last long.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

That's exactly what malicious memes are intended to do... I dont fall for them, I just know of them and where they come from, and what they mean. Go look up the latest one, the fashtag.

a reply to: Arnie123

Meanwhile...
www.cnbc.com...

Researchers have found hundreds of years’ worth of critical rare-earth metals beneath Japanese waters — enough to supply to the world on a “semi-infinite basis,” according to a study published on Tuesday.

www.nytimes.com...

So to keep close ties with Mr. Trump — Mr. Abe’s occasional golf buddy and the world leader on the other end of more than 40 discussions or visits since the 2016 election, according to White House officials — the prime minister has planned a visit dripping in a level of ceremony that money can’t buy.

All of Mr. Abe’s plans are meant to remind Mr. Trump, the leader of Japan’s most important ally, not to forget about his closest friend in Asia. There will be sumo wrestling with a customized Trump trophy. There will be a meeting with the new Japanese emperor. There will be a state banquet.

www.politico.com...

Trump had not yet been inaugurated when Abe hopped on a plane, uninvited, to meet with the president-elect at Trump Tower. Since then, Abe has golfed with Trump three times; visited Mar-a-Lago twice; gifted him a golf club worth nearly $3,800; dropped in on First Lady Melania Trump’s birthday dinner; and even, according to Trump himself, nominated Trump for a Nobel Prize. The two leaders have had 10 personal meetings and spoken 30 other times. “That is absolutely unprecedented,” says a senior Trump administration official.

China is desperate and they're making an enormous ass out of themselves while this man continues to smile because he's got options hanging out his ass on every single point China *hopes* they can score on us in this trade war.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

Hey. You weren't supposed to give away the hidden message in my OP!

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: burdman30ott6

Hey. You weren't supposed to give away the hidden message in my OP!

It sort of neuters the rest of your OP, though. Depending on how quickly Japan can get the mines setup and (dare I dream) how quickly the US can construct some ore processing facilities stateside, we're just around the corner from a tremendously profitable three way between us, Japan, and REMs. Again, China holds nothing here aside from generating baseless fears in the overly exciteable.

"Don't say we didn't warn you!' - which is a diplomatic term usually reserved by Beijing to signal the start of an armed warfare

"Usually"?

How many armed conflicts did Beijing start that was signaled before hand by them saying "Don't say we didn't warn you"? When and how did those conflicts end?