Tariffs on China how long will the pain last?

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

They are inexpensive. Mostly not cheap.
Some of the best cosmetics come out of china and women are very picky.

Clothing
car parts
plastic
furniture
iron and steel

these are some of Chinas top exports to the US

The market is because they are inexpensive not because they are cheap. There is a difference.

No I'm not saying that everything out of China is top of the line of course.
But Americans are not stupid drones either and they are not sacrificing quality for price in most cases.
They get both from China and that is why we buy so much from them.

originally posted by: glend
When I first heard US is increasing tariffs it reminded me of the great depression....

As the global economy entered the first stages of the Great Depression in late 1929, the US's main goal emerged to protect American jobs and farmers from foreign competition. Reed Smoot championed another tariff increase within the United States in 1929, which became the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Bill.

The great depression was a recession magnified by unsustainable debt ...

“The share of publicly held debt we have now relative to GDP has only happened once before in U.S. history. What our debt levels are — we often talk about this number, $19 trillion of debt. That’s not the real number because all of your entitlement spending is kept off book on a different ledger. The real number is more like 70 to 75 trillion dollars — and so when you set that up against U.S. GDP, the only time we ever had a debt-to-GDP ratio like this was on the eve of the Great Depression.”
— Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), town hall meeting in Elkhorn, Neb., March 17, 2017

So what triggered the first great depression ...

Great Depression started in the United States after a major fall in stock prices.

Stay tuned!

Yikes !

a reply to: JAGStorm

Not for nothing but there are some gems in the dollar store.
They have these multi sized plastic covers with elastic that fits over left overs.
We have a kitchen full of plastic storage containers but for some reason my sons could never find any covers. Had to bend you know... LOL... anyway... those covers were right next to the foil and plastic wrap and saved a lot of leftovers from having the ketchup bottle fall into them.

I have a drawer full of plastic sunglasses in every color of the rainbow. A dollar a pair. Who cares if you lose them or break them. Wearing yellow have a yellow pair, have navy and baby blue. I have three different pink pairs. LOL I know my hubby just laughs at me.

a reply to: StallionDuck

Americans dont want those jobs.

Im not going to attribute a genius plan to Trump or anyone else. But i want to point out something that I don't think many realize: wages currently are growing faster than the last 5 presidents. There was, under Bush and Obama, an enormous rotting of the dollar which caused a lopsided cost of goods for Americans to deal with. We made lower valued dollars, yet had to spend the higher valued amounts to meet the globalized market we purchase most of our stuff from. So the rotting dollar hurt a little worse, as we didn't enjoy the benefit of localized adjustment in values thanks to lowered dollar value, and instead continued to purchase from a global market that was less effected by the loss of value in the dollar.

So now we have this little trade war going on. Which will drive up cost of goods. Except now, unlike 2009/2010, we have a growing economy that can offset the cost of goods adjustment (where we pay artificially higher prices than the global market due to tariffs) through wage growth.

The trade war, so long as it doesn't create a downturn in the economy (which it has not yet), will continue to provide wage growth for Americans. Once a trade agreement is made, we should see a resurgence in the middle class, and an improvement in overall living standards across all classes. It seems to be a way to adjust for stagnation that plagued the prior 10 years.

Just a musing I had this morning.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: StallionDuck

Americans dont want those jobs.

Why do you think that Americans do not want those jobs? Your above post statement doesnt make sense to me. It is becoming apparent that many Americans actually do want and need those jobs here rather than overseas.

a reply to: JAGStorm

They got the above statement wrong, the people that will feel the greatest impact are the consumers, most likely the middle class. We always are.

We were told this about the first round of tarriff's too. Yet, where's the pain? Inflation is low, wages are rising, job growth is continuing, GDP growth is higher than it's been in almost two decades, we finally had a budget surplus last quarter. It seems tariff's are win-win-win situations. Well, except for china. Their economy went from "15-20%" growth to "6%" growth.

Now, it might not be a good idea to hike tariff's in a bad economy, but in this economy it's likely to have little effect. I have more money/good/services right now than I've ever had in my life. Hell, more than I dreamed I would have. I was just talking to my wife the other day and we were talking about our plans when we left the military nearly a decade ago. We had hoped for an income that was half of what I make now. In the last 3 years my wages are up 30%.

I actually agree with the solution in the article, bring manufacturing back home. The problem is that it takes a while, like 10-20 years. Can Americans endure that kind of timeline?

Can american's endure an economy like this? C'mon now. I think we'll be fine. But I don't think it will take 10-20 years. I think it will take 5-10. There is plenty of capital. The infrastructure is mostly there already (though it will need to be beefed up a little to make us into the manufacturing powerhouse we once were). If anything, the shortage is going to be in labor. Remember during the obama admin, how the big fear was that robotics was going to lead to mass unemployment? LOL. Now here we are at 3.5% and wondering if we will have enough labor to bring our manufacturing prowess back to full steam quickly enough.

The other big issue is that Americans want to be environmentally friendly, at least here.

You're confusing virtue signaling with reality. In reality most of the virtue signalers could care less about the environment. They'll drive their giant cars, eat their burgers, order $20k worth of things off amazon, and run their AC on full blast all summer. When push comes to shove, the "environment" will take the back seat to economic reality. Assuming economic reality requires some pollution. Really it may not, the power needed for all of this new infrastructure will be built to current codes so it will be far cleaner than anything they've been doing in china.

The other problem is that Americans became addicted to low cost items.

These goods are barely in danger at all and they're unlikely to see massive rises in prices. Many of these goods are available for a small percentage more from countries like Taiwan or even Mexico. While we certainly need our low priced items to keep up our standard of living, I'd caution that only fools bet against American ingenuity.

originally posted by: surfer_soul

It wasn’t really about people wanting cheap goods, but corporations wanting greater profits. That’s why all the jobs went abroad.

Its called competition. Businesses are mindless entities that follow the river of profit wherever it takes them, even to the other side of the planet.

originally posted by: Dfairlite

We were told this about the first round of tarriff's too. Yet, where's the pain? Inflation is low, wages are rising, job growth is continuing, GDP growth is higher than it's been in almost two decades, we finally had a budget surplus last quarter. It seems tariff's are win-win-win situations. Well, except for china. Their economy went from "15-20%" growth to "6%" growth.

China is hurting now as they are well into a recession that was fueled by a faked economy growth. 20 years ago they had cheap labor of people making 30 bucks a month, but today that huge group has moved into middle income and they are not cheap anymore. Even China is looking to outsource to Africa a labor pool much like they were 20+ years ago. Just like Japan was in the 60-70s, and Korea was in the 80-90s China has outlived its cheap labor status. Africa and back to the Americas is the next labor pool.

originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: strongfp

Why did those jobs leave in the first place?

EXACTLY.. Those jobs left for two reasons, cheap labor to produce cheap junk..

I remember when there were protests against trade with China.
There was a big one in Seattle years ago. The chamber of commerce and corporate media smeared their name and called them a bunch of capitalist hating commies.

The irony of them calling these protesters commies while they moved their business to Communist China where labor have 0 rights.

China is still a "developing country" under the WTO, ridiculous.

I find it ironic that China is hated now that they are following the Capitalistic model of "profit is God"

originally posted by: olaru12
I find it ironic that China is hated now that they are following the Capitalistic model of "profit is God"

Nothing China is doing is in the spirit of capitalism.

originally posted by: projectvxn

originally posted by: olaru12
I find it ironic that China is hated now that they are following the Capitalistic model of "profit is God"

Nothing China is doing is in the spirit of capitalism.

Some may disagree....

www.businessinsider.com...

a reply to: infolurker

I haven't argued that there aren't more jobs in manufacturing. My question was what manufacturing jobs have been brought back.

The manufacturing that was already here in some cases have expanded but the processes that were outsourced are still outsourced as far as I know.

originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: infolurker

I haven't argued that there aren't more jobs in manufacturing. My question was what manufacturing jobs have been brought back.

The manufacturing that was already here in some cases have expanded but the processes that were outsourced are still outsourced as far as I know.

element has started manufacturing flat panes in the US. Gentex closed its two plants in China and one in Mexico and moved to Michigan making car parts. Amgen announced in February 2018 that it would invest $300 million in a new U.S. biologics plant that would employ approximately 300 workers upon completion. They are a pharma company and closing their chinese plant. Merck & Co. is moving manufacturing back and they produce medical glass. Solar city has moved back they produce solar panels. Polaris Industries has moved to alabama they make off road vehicles and have another plant they opened in alabama. Caterpillar has closed its plants in china and Japan and opened plants in Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Texas. Whirlpool closed plant in china and has movedit to ohio. General Electric has moved tp appliance Park, a newly renovated production facility in Louisville, Kentucky, and shifting the production of bottom-mounted refrigerators and front-load washing machines from China and Mexico to the U.S.


I can keep going a lot of manufacturing has moved from China people just don't know about it, for example, Dow Chemical closed two plants in China and moved them to Texas and Michigan. Intel is moving to Chandler Arizona spending $7 billion and the direct hiring of 3,000 high-tech, high-wage workers. The tech giant projects the plant will be completed in the next two to three years, and will indirectly lead to the creation of roughly 10,000 jobs throughout Arizona. It also bills its self as the most advanced, high-volume microprocessor plant in the world. Boeing has decided to produce its latest model in the US moving parts of its production of the new 777X plane from overseas to its St. Louis facility. And even companies like apple a major employer in China are starting to invest in US manufacturing. In January 2018, Apple announced plans to invest over $30 billion in capital expenditures in the U.S. over the next five years. As part of the investment, Apple is increasing its commitment to its Advanced Manufacturing Fund -- used to invest in U.S. manufacturing companies and boost the domestic manufacturing sector -- from $1 billion to $5 billion.

So as you can see this is only a small number of companies that have chosen to move manufacturing from China to the
US. Even plants in Mexico are moving back to the US. And this doesnt even count manufacturers from other countries who are opening plants in the US, Thats a completely different list.

www.industryweek.com...

a reply to: dragonridr

People don't know about it because the media doesn't report on it. They're too busy pretending everything trump does, is the end of the world.

My take on it is China's main product is cheap labor to be used by companies from other countries, who ship raw materials to China to have cheap labor do their manufacturing and then ship it back. Even with the shipping expenses the cheap labor aspect still makes it highly profitable.

The price other countries pay is not just in trade deficits and China's illegal activities, like the theft of technology and intellectual property. It's in Blue Collar jobs and the loss of the middle class. The middle class is everything as without it you have the elite and the working poor.

I'd say beware anyone criticizing Trump for this part of what he's doing. Their goal is a two class system and single party control. In other words, turn us into China.

It's happening now in front of our eyes. Less and less privacy, more and more government involvement and regulation. Larger and larger government.

There are two kinds of elite. The very rich and those who have power, like our elected office holders and appointee's. I'd also include the academic elite, whose power is to condition our children to accept a new reality that they want to create a two class, single party state.

People need to realize, at least those who are not paying attention or are illiterate, that there is a larger goal with the pro-China and pro-socialism crowd. Complete control by the elite, including the academic elite, of the working class they look down on. This is a good time to look at who people are electing and see are they on Trumps side on this one.

Trump won't be able to stop it, but he can slow it down and cause them some pain, while at the same time keeping the economy heading the right way.

Seriously think people! Why are business like Apple getting their products made in China? Becsuse the workers are on crap money. Pretty much the reason why most successful companies get their products made in places like China?

So you want these jobs back? Tell me, are you willing to work for pennies? Of course not! So what would happen? Product prices would sky rocket, people would not be able to afford them. A lot of companies would go under because people cannot afford to buy their products.

Thsts the way it is. Places like China do this work because most western countries would not, unless they hugely increased workers pay.

As for pladtic junk. There is alot of stuff made in China that is good quality. All this "pladtic junk" is just Sour Grapes.

Stop buying their "pladtic junk" and then watch your own economy fall, considering a lot of business get their products made, or from China.

The pain will last longer than the tariffs do. Prices always rise faster than they fall. Thanks, Donald. You are an absolute economic moron; or you simply do not care how stressed finances are for most Americans. Trump, without question, you are a stable genius. Who else could reek so much havoc upon the people he claims to love and get away with it?