Trump wants to increase tariffs On china again .

a reply to: Zanti Misfit

Awesome devotion, not to mention use of caps.

When do we invade the communist menace?

a reply to: Phage

Yes , I am CAPS FEAR Me ! .................LOL


Oh , and the President too ............)

a reply to: Phage

" When do we invade the communist menace? "


Not " We " , but " He " . We Already Have . The Chicoms will be Crying " Uncle " Sam Soon . Who Else is going to Buy their Crap ? .......

a reply to: Zanti Misfit

We'll see what happens.

a reply to: Phage

Yes , by June 2019 , China will be the Presidents New Beech .

a reply to: Grimpachi

Sure. And eventually cheap enough that automated kitchens will get adopted by large companies with capital. Those places will still need staff. Just less staff.

But since we're not considering outsourcing our kitchens to China (a shame because I love a Chinese dish), I'm not sure what that has to do with protecting our industrial base?

a reply to: Phage

You know who pays the tariffs, right? 

Importing companies, directly. Indirectly, consumers, excepting when competing American products already exist at the market price and are able to expand their market share. Those same consumers also benefit from wage growth when the local supply/demand curve for labour adjusts...

a reply to: RadioRobert


Yep, steel manufacturers are sure increasing the wages they pay. How about those who use that more expensive steel to make stuff? I don't make steel. Do you?



Yep, them soybean farmers sure are increasing the wages they pay.

a reply to: RadioRobert

I don't see us protecting our industrial base? What I have seen is our government taxing it through tariffs.

a reply to: Phage

When you have job growth that outstrips supply, you have wage growth across all sectors, not just among affected industries.

Ag producers for products like soy are going to suffer in a trade war. That's how it works. Markets realign. Our exporters will feel the squeeze. The good news is that with a giant trade imbalance, we are well positioned to absorb that pain while the other party is not. You're looking at 2-5 years for trade markets to normalize. Until then, it will be volatile.

a reply to: RadioRobert

When you have job growth that outstrips supply, you have wage growth across all sectors, not just among affected industries.

Heh. Bartenders did really well in March.

I'm actually a fiscal conservative. I don't like trade wars. Or budget deficits.
We'll see what happens.

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: luthier

So in a sense yes automation will create more AI developers and tech industry jobs over time but not equal to those lost...
Your model doesnt show reality of the markets where automation destroys jobs

Again, let's accept that at face value for fun: can you explain your rationale for seemingly abandoning domestic manufacturing which under your model prediction would actually undercut foreign manufacturing benefits (labor costs) while capital improvement toward automation would cost roughly the same? That would still be a boon for domestic manufacturing would it not? Why abandon the manufacturing base in that circumstance, if you believe it to be true?
Second, assuming that turns true by 2050, why abandon the short term gain in jobs possible through policies that encourage reshoring based on a belief that thirty years from now we will not need those jobs to be mass producers?
Third, circling back to the first point, the existence of those domestic industries -- regardless of level of automation-- will always result in some jobs, and resulting revenue streams for the government through various taxes, neither of which exist in our current state of fundamental trade imbalance. Wjy are we watching them offshore instead of promoting them? Because they do not meet your arbitrary metric for job creation or revenue? Is some not always more healthy than none?I

Explain exactly why we should stop caring if domestic manufacturing disappears?

Domestic manufacturing isn't disappearing. Its domestic manufacturing jobs disappearing.

By 2050 we will certainly be close or arrived at AGI. In which case human design will be significantly less important.

Including ai designers. What we are in the middle of is a major economic and technological change nobody seems to understand.

Your some jobs situation can very well be a hunger games scenario if we don't discuss what to do about the existential crisis humans are going to face with agi.

a reply to: Phage

Uh that may be true for that assembly line but AI can be programmed to be frustrated. We are talking about a technology evolving fast enough for its cutting edge to mot be all over every industry.

Here is another example. Radiology. An AI can see shades of grey humans cant and process millions of x rays more than doctors.

You are talking about robots. That however doesnt a count for advancing AI. Learning AI, or the movement towards AGI from places like Google or Dr Ben Goertzel at Hanson robotics.

a reply to: RadioRobert

It seems your explanations do not explain supply line problems with trade wars. Not do they account t for what happens if credit drives up during these hard times and the economy retracts. Or the type of physical war that can be started of the economic one.

Also the biggest reason the government shouldn't take control of pricing of goods which is unintended consequences and the fact the next administrations will have different monetary philosphy. This is why the market should remain as free as possible.

a reply to: RadioRobert

Markets re align? Really show proof of a modern trade war working out. You know something since the internet and china supply lines have ruled the earth.

Markets do realign. Just not always in favor for the conumer or worker. You will be hard pressed to find an example of someone cranking on economic levers like trump without massive corrections. The fact his plans are unpopular amongst even Republicans make this the dumbest move possible. The next administration won't use the same policies and it will all be pointless.

a reply to: Phage

Some of us are old enough to remember all the other failed trade wars, lumber, Japanese cars, steel...where all that happened was price increases..

originally posted by: Phage
The point being that machines just don't give a damn, they do what they are programmed to do. Frustration, a very human emotion, led to innovation. So, in a static world there could very well be no place for humans but in the real world, which changes, it's not likely that humans will be replaced. Unless lower efficiency is desirable.

Frustration, or simply wanting to make your job easier can certainly be a factor, but if there is inefficiency a profit motive can also be a significant factor. Not to mention competition.

There's a lot of things out there that are automated in very inefficient ways, the amount of corporate waste that exists is absolutely staggering (and as I've been learning lately, at large corporations it seems to be about 1000 times more than people think). But, even inefficient automation is generally much more cost effective.

Edit: Not sure about the manufacturing industry but in the tech industry we often automate our own jobs in order to remove frustration or simply have more free time. It’s just little things here and there that eventually add up to big changes. But, we don’t need large machines to automate most things.

Process improvements are always good too, that’s not really automation but it’s a similar effect. Humans are decent at finding process improvements. Much better than machines are. Those aren’t usually found by unskilled labor though.

a reply to: Aazadan

Process improvements are sometimes better by AI. This is especially true in agriculture. We aren't at the point of design fro m scratch but AI is helping efficiency in process in several fields. More every week.

Healthcare and advertising the most obvious process advancement by AI.

a reply to: strongfp

The reason for this is because for so many years fools in power pushed us into their so called service based economy caused by trade agreements like hafta that let America manufacturers leave to Asian and Mexico for dirt cheap labor and then the service based jobs left to go to India. Meanwhile infrastructure and agricultural jobs were allowed to use migrant workers which killed jobs for Americans because they would work for half what Americans were supposed to get and the money that they earned at least half they sent home to mexico.

a reply to: Phage

Bartenders did really well in March. 

We keep sending them to DC. Shortages abound.


We need to fix our trade imbalance and protect domestic industry. If you can do that without a "trade war", even better. Our deficit is already disastrous. Noone wants to cut spending. Every cut seems to be posed as a life-or-death decision.