Turkey threatens to buy Su-57 amid S400 and F-35 kerfuffle

Ankara will find a substitute for the US F-35 fighter jets if the United States refuses to deliver the aircraft to Turkey over the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence systems, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Wednesday

link

Mentioned the Su-34 and Su-57 by name along with "others". Turkey really wants the technology transfer and workshare, I imagine.

The under-reported angle in all this is Turkey has been asking to purchase Patriot batteries and associated technology transfers seemingly forever and the US won't oblige. The US has stationed Patriot batteries there forever, but they are not Turkish assets. So Erdogan goes with the S400, and all hell breaks loose.

I'm no fan of Edrogan or his treatment of the Kurds, but as a NATO member, I cannot imagine why we would deny them new Patriot while handing them F-35 partnership. I would agree that we shouldn't deliver F-35's if they take delivery of the S400, but you can't blame them for not wanting to continually outsource their air defense mission to other NATO members.

You also have Greece (who the Turks have a healthy rivalry going with) which was allowed to purchaee S300's sometime back when they were top of the line, which adds fuel to Turkey's ire.

We should agree to negotiate with them if they promise to stop making movies effective immeidately.
Turkish Star Wars

a reply to: RadioRobert

Let them buy whatever they want, from Russia.

Kick them out of NATO, they are a worthless "ally", and I use that term with sarcasm, and under no circumstances allow them to have the F-35 platform. They certainly cant be trusted with classified hardware.

Move our existing base there into northern Iraq, where the Kurds are, and let the cards fall where they may.

Russia needs the investment now that Ibiza has almost certainly plead the plug on their purchase

a reply to: Mach2

I'm not a fan, particularly as it relates to the Kurds situation, but sending them into the orbit of Russia presents its own issues.

They should be wary of doing business with Russia. Russians have always considered the Turks their main enemy in this world. Whatever they do, they will do. SInce Edrogen is their leader, it will probably be foolish. Edrogen seems to be the sort that dreams of the past. Probably wants to renew the Ottoman empire.

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: Mach2

I'm not a fan, particularly as it relates to the Kurds situation, but sending them into the orbit of Russia presents its own issues.

I certainly appreciate that concern, but it bothers me a whole lot more that Venezuela is headed toward the Russian sphere of influence.

originally posted by: Fools
They should be wary of doing business with Russia. Russians have always considered the Turks their main enemy in this world. Whatever they do, they will do. SInce Edrogen is their leader, it will probably be foolish. Edrogen seems to be the sort that dreams of the past. Probably wants to renew the Ottoman empire.

I don't think there is any "probably" to it.

originally posted by: Mach2

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: Mach2

I'm not a fan, particularly as it relates to the Kurds situation, but sending them into the orbit of Russia presents its own issues.

I certainly appreciate that concern, but it bothers me a whole lot more that Venezuela is headed toward the Russian sphere of influence.

Venezuela is already there. What does pushing Turkey towards them do that fixes either situation?

originally posted by: RadioRobert
The under-reported angle in all this is Turkey has been asking to purchase Patriot batteries and associated technology transfers seemingly forever and the US won't oblige.

turkey-cleared-f or-35-billion-patriot-missile-deal

originally posted by: RadioRobert

originally posted by: Mach2

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: Mach2

I'm not a fan, particularly as it relates to the Kurds situation, but sending them into the orbit of Russia presents its own issues.

I certainly appreciate that concern, but it bothers me a whole lot more that Venezuela is headed toward the Russian sphere of influence.

Venezuela is already there. What does pushing Turkey towards them do that fixes either situation?

I just meant that I'm not particularly concerned about whether Russia gets a foothold in Turkey.

I can't think of one mutual interest we have with them, especially now, in light of the fact that they are not acting like a NATO member, and are moving closer to a regime of religious fanaticism.

a reply to: moebius
from your link:

Turkey insisted on a transfer of missile technology regarding the Patriot before it would consider the system, something the U.S. declined to do. The DSCA solicit said industrial offsets of some kind are required with the deal, but “at this time offset agreements are undetermined and will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and contractors;" whether that offset will include tech transfer remains to be seen.

It hasn't gotten anywhere in the Senate, and they have not gotten their technology transfer. Clearing the State Department is the first of many hurdles for the Turkish government.

Basically Turkey's whole angle is "We want our own air defense, and we want the industrial offsets to strengthen our own industries. We'd love to buy yours, but we'll go wherever we have to to do it."

It's all part of the negotiations. It's just going sideways. "We want to buy Patriots, you won't sell them. We'll buy the S400 instead", "You won't sell the F-35 now, then we'll have to buy new aircraft from elsewhere".

I wasn't big on them being a partner in the first place. I definitely don't want them with the F-35 if they buy the S400.

On the otherhand, the underlying issue is the tech transfer from newer Patriots. Is it worth alienating a NATO member sitting on the straits and pushing them into the Russian sphere?

Like usual in the real world, there are no easy and clear answers.

a reply to: Mach2

I'm sure the Ukraine, and NATO member states like Greece, Bulgaria, Moldova, Albania, etc would just love that approach!

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: Mach2

I'm sure the Ukraine, and NATO member states like Greece, Bulgaria, Moldova, Albania, etc would just love that approach!

Point taken, and as you said in another post, there are no easy answers.

There are strategic concerns, for sure. We do owe it to our allies to take them into consideration. It shouldn't be the one way street that it sometimes appears to be though. I don't want to leave good allies out in the cold, so to speak, but when a state such as Turkey commits, human rights violations, if not outright genocide, based on religious beliefs, I have to question the "partnership".

originally posted by: moebius

originally posted by: RadioRobert
The under-reported angle in all this is Turkey has been asking to purchase Patriot batteries and associated technology transfers seemingly forever and the US won't oblige.

turkey-cleared-f or-35-billion-patriot-missile-deal

Amid an ongoing row concerning Turkey’s decision to buy a Russian air defense system, the U.S. State Department has cleared Ankara to purchase a package of Patriot systems, with an estimated price tag of $3.5 billion.

Clearing a deal after the fact is BS, you know, I know it, everyone here knows it.

Just another example of why the US is losing soft power all over the place. Every deal is negotiated in bad faith from the onset.

a reply to: Mach2

I'm no fan of the Turkish government at the moment. No doubt the demonstrations a year or two ago were an attempt to change the direction back to a more secular and "reliable" or " pliable" government in place. I would agree Erdogan is a terrible partner at the moment.

A major shift away from NATO and towards Russia creates inherent ripples that well outweigh and outlast Erdogan. Not the first time we've suffered (or even supported) a petty tyrant to advance larger interests. Won't be the last.

originally posted by: RadioRobert
a reply to: Mach2
Not the first time we've suffered (or even supported) a petty tyrant to advance larger interests. Won't be the last.

No arguement from me there. Sometimes it works out. Most times, it leaves us with egg on our face.

You are correct though, Erdogan will not be calling the shots, forever, but he is eliminating most of his opposition.

Good exchange Robert.

a reply to: Mach2

Believe me, I empathize with the gut reaction of, "Go # yourself, Erdogan". Haha Reality is just too messy for that. And at the core, the request isn't completely unreasonable depending on what exactly they want in offsets. I suspect this and the S400 issue is just the step in their negotiations for what they truly want, which is a self-reliant defense industry.

To what degree we should be helping them achieve this goal and when the medicine becomes worse than the cure, is all very much open to debate.

Experience seems to indicate when we refuse to sell to allies, they eventually just buy those capabilities elsewhere. To what degree that hurts and helps us in the big picture is undetermined, but I tend to think we mostly hurt ourselves. We refuse to sell F-15E's to the Saudis because we don't want them with more offensive forces, so they buy Tornados from the UK consortium. Etc. They usually end up with most of the capability, but they pay someone else for it, and we create tension over an issue that we inevitably lost anyway (if the issue was strike aircraft in Saidi Arabia, for example).

a reply to: RadioRobert

The politics of Turkey's shift towards Russia goes beyond NATO. Turkey is dependent on Europe for their economy and do comparatively little trade with Russia. Turkey exports more to the US than to Russia, for example. If this turns from a NATO tiff into a full blown politcal crisis and Turkey officially changes alignment towards Russia then the country will suffer.

Turkey benefits more by being aligned to the West than to Russia.

a reply to: RadioRobert

The US has lost it's steam,they are used to forcing people to comply,when given an option they never pick US,better deal with Russians more high tech for money