Stalemate or Checkmate- S400s or even S500s to Venezuela

What are Russia's military options right now to protect their interests, and troops, in Venezuela?

One potential move would be for the Russians to surprisingly locate several batteries of their extremely powerful S400 air defense at key points in Venezuela. Up to this point, the Russians have pretty much kept those elite weapons for homeland defense. Not only would it make a bold statement of intentions, but it would most seriously complicate matters for Washington. As if they weren't complicated enough already- with S300's already in place.

However, Israel seems to have some kind of answer to S300's, and if Israel has it, you better believe we do, with rare exceptions- some proprietary variants of F15's for example.

Now an overkill move would be for the Russians to unveil their most powerful system still in development- the S500. Except what if they were to unveil it in Venezuela? Talk about raising a ruckus! OMG.

The unprecedented move of either of these systems to Venezuela would put the US in a position of all or nothing. Sure, they MIGHT be able to defeat 5 to 10 batteries of S400's, but at what extreme cost? Just exactly how resolute is Washington, and Trump over this? And how far are the Russians willing to go to maintain their grasp?

Only time will tell. Meanwhile, Venezuelans are already desperate. To the point that they are looting and completely destroying some marketplaces. The failed aid delivery is also reported to have seriously affected at least one city in Colombia.

With a potential move like this possible, I can only imagine what military planners are thinking right about now. A major US carrier fleet deployed in the Caribbean to forcibly blockade Venezuelan shipping? Hey, that's possible, without much effect on our oil supply, seeing as we have pretty much eliminated or seriously reduced Venezuelan oil imports to the US anyways. Hmm.

Interestingly, Brazil has already stated they want no part of this, and will not participate in any attempt to remove Maduro. A quick look at a map, and you can see that Venezuela is land locked to the south by Brazil. And unless the US intends to say screw the Brazilians too, and bring forced entry from the south, then their only options for a land invasion must come from the Caribbean Sea somewhere, Colombia or Guyana. Considering Colombia did at least allow US humanitarian aid in, then you can see a potential player right there- but no one said that they would allow a US military force there that I have seen.

No, this could get, and is, very complicated, this business of being the world's police (cough, I mean the world's oil gobblers). But I will again say, S400's into Venezuela right about now would exacerbate things to the breaking point. It would be a startling move on the Russian's part. But I would not put it past Putin to do it for a second. Surely you saw that coming, right Washington?

a reply to: TrueAmerican

It would take too long to get them there and set up.

You would also need to heavily protect them against a ground attack by Armored troops.

Better solution is just to put Naval Warships in the harbors and use their air defense systems.

Protect the Harbor with a few subs and anyone would think twice about engaging.

I don't see a problem here. We are watching a show meant to distract.

P

originally posted by: pheonix358
a reply to: TrueAmerican

It would take too long to get them there and set up.

On May 21, 2007 the Russian Air Force announced that S-400 would be put on combat duty around Moscow and Central Russia by July 1, 2007.[105] The S-400 was also deployed near the town of Elektrostal.[106] On August 6, 2007, the first regiment equipped with S-400 entered active service in Moscow Oblast near Elektrostal, according to Channel One Russia. This is the 606th Guards Anti-air Rocket Regiment, 9th PVO Division, 1st PVO Corps, of the Special Purpose Command.[107]

en.wikipedia.org...-presstv-139

My point is, with a will there is way. That's not that long. Not to mention they are somewhat mobile.

OP... s-400 is easily destroyed by standoff weapons. f-22 glide bombs can reach them if dropped from altitude. they woudnt detect the aircraft if it stayed outside the scan range. one of our allies had a s-400 system and let us try its detection range on the f-22. s-400 is killable with little risk if its from at range it was detected at. s-500 is scarier though and can see longer range. Ask zaphod for the low down on those systems.

Why would we care unless we plan on directly intervening in Venezuela? It has no impact on us unless we start something. The more forward deployments the better as far as I'm concerned. Makes it a lot easier and more likely to collect the ELINT/EW data we need.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

At the moment no options really. Russia only has one weapon it can project globally in any noticeable manner and that is nuclear weapons.

Really I think what has happened is Maduro wants to escape with his hide intact and the only thing keeping him from his own personal mussillini head kick in the near future is Russian special ops guys.

The big pic though is that on the world stage it makes Russia appear to be - as always - pro dictator 100%.

Just a little thinking here, but the cost of tomahawks aren't too outrageously expensive and what would it take to overwhelm a S400/500 with a large barrage of misses heading it's way. I calculated that a standard shipping container could easily hold 16 misses, including a launch tube. There are a lot of navy vessels that aren't "attack" oriented like tankers and who knows what else. I'd imagine they could have a few containers of these on deck or below (until needed) and then launch them. Since they are a flagged US navy vessel, they aren't breaking maritime law like using a merchant cargo ship to carry out an attack. Of course, a destroyer or some of the new Littoral class ships might also make use of this. I know most ships have missile tubes but those that don't I'd bet could be outfitted in a manner where they could carry a payload such as this.

As for the statement about the "glide bombs", I'm wondering how that works and also how the s400/500 picks up signatures of misses and bombs. Do they detect heat from the misses engine? It looks like those have a range of 45 miles, which seems really far for a "glide bomb". I'm wondering if they use some chemical reaction that doesn't produce heat (or is masked by intake of ambient air mixing with exhaust). If the defense systems use heat and not motion/radar (which I kind of doubt), I would think something like compressed air could help get that kind of distance from their flight ceiling. Maybe they use the same stuff we did in science class to make volcano's - baking soda and vinegar to make the gas, lol /sarc

the S400 has 8 launchers and 120 missiles. I'm guessing it'd be possible to create "dud" cruise missles relatively cheaply to be fired in succession to deplete the missile reserves. Missiles are basically flight control, engine/motor, body & explosive, w/o the explosive there's more room for fuel and it can go a greater distance or faster.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

When Russian warships start escorting oil tankers out of Venezuela is the time to start worrying.

originally posted by: DigginFoTroof
Just a little thinking here, but the cost of tomahawks aren't too outrageously expensive and what would it take to overwhelm a S400/500 with a large barrage of misses heading it's way. I calculated that a standard shipping container could easily hold 16 misses, including a launch tube. There are a lot of navy vessels that aren't "attack" oriented like tankers and who knows what else. I'd imagine they could have a few containers of these on deck or below (until needed) and then launch them. Since they are a flagged US navy vessel, they aren't breaking maritime law like using a merchant cargo ship to carry out an attack. Of course, a destroyer or some of the new Littoral class ships might also make use of this. I know most ships have missile tubes but those that don't I'd bet could be outfitted in a manner where they could carry a payload such as this.

As for the statement about the "glide bombs", I'm wondering how that works and also how the s400/500 picks up signatures of misses and bombs. Do they detect heat from the misses engine? It looks like those have a range of 45 miles, which seems really far for a "glide bomb". I'm wondering if they use some chemical reaction that doesn't produce heat (or is masked by intake of ambient air mixing with exhaust). If the defense systems use heat and not motion/radar (which I kind of doubt), I would think something like compressed air could help get that kind of distance from their flight ceiling. Maybe they use the same stuff we did in science class to make volcano's - baking soda and vinegar to make the gas, lol /sarc

the S400 has 8 launchers and 120 missiles. I'm guessing it'd be possible to create "dud" cruise missles relatively cheaply to be fired in succession to deplete the missile reserves. Missiles are basically flight control, engine/motor, body & explosive, w/o the explosive there's more room for fuel and it can go a greater distance or faster.

Glide bombs are not powered by a engine last i checked. hence "glide". The f-22 detection range is hight enough it wont get shot at most likely and go un detected. Also the bombs are set with GPS so there is no indication of a lock on if i remember if they use satellite recon to set their location.