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Climate literacy

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posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 07:20 AM
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Apologies for the title.

The premise is simple. When it comes to climate change, most people are clueless, the media is doing a poor job, but climate science itself is not to blame.


The good news: the data is there.



This is an attempt to present all US max temperature trends/changes in one statistic and still preserve most of the unique structure of change. I’ll explain in detail what the charts show and what they can’t show, when the topic comes up.



Since it is bad form to start any argument with a proclamation, the proposition is, we can understand the climate, how it changes and how it affects the places where most people live. The data allows us to ground-truth any concept or perception we might have accepted as true.


Pick the region you live in or one you’re familiar with ( for starters preferably in the US), and develop a set of questions you think are relevant. As long as it is related to temperature change, it can be anything.

Depending how well we can reliably determine what exactly has changed, there is theoretically no limit to where the data can lead.

As an example,

For people living in United States, the most direct and easy to use source is still NOAA’s databank.

NOAA US surface temps*

NOAA US trend maps

highest warming trend in the US

highest cooling trend in the US




With this data it is possible to put a temperature ‘profile’ together, to a reasonable degree, for any region. We can find out exactly how each season has changed and what that could mean for anything that is affected by temperature changes.

Most of the basic checks can be done inside the data tool, but some of it must be plotted in a spreadsheet to bring out more details. To keep this opening post as short as possible, i posted a quick guide on how to plot charts relatively easy, in a separate thread. It’s not a big deal, but it’s necessary for some further analysis.

how to plot guide

For people outside the US we can do the same with surface station data.

GISS surface stations


The tool is mostly self explanatory and there is a direct link to the data. When each month is plotted, we can look at any changes in the same detail as in the US.



There are some sources for min/max temperatures, the easiest way to get the data for a station directly is the climate explorer. (see chart plot thread)

Climate Explorer



Two main issues related to surface stations will inevitably come up. Data availability and maturity. I think it makes the most sense to discuss that with real world examples.



The thread title is only meant to be half serious. If all this sounds too much like school to you, i hope you are at least curious enough to find out if your perception of climate change matches reality.

To understand how exactly the climate changes, we need to follow the data. This is an invitation to do this here.




Some additional tools that could help

Earth Nullschool is awesome. It’s based reanalysis and for-casting algorithms not real time data, but it’s a fantastic tool to see the climate system in action.

Google Earth has some good overlays (climate zones etc.).

Köppen-Geiger climate zones


*NOAA is having some data bank issues, the page is loading slow or sometimes fails to load the charts at all. This is a link to a folder with all max temp charts sorted by month. US max charts






edit on 21-3-2019 by WilliamR because: lnk


edit on 21-3-2019 by WilliamR because: typo




posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 07:33 AM
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a reply to: WilliamR



I think we have too much carbon in the atmosphere. It's probably coming from burning fossil fuels. Just my opinion.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 07:37 AM
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a reply to: dfnj2015

You're fast.

Have you ever checked if global temperatures accurately represent the changes in your region?



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 07:44 AM
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Excellent OP.

I agree, most ppl dont have the inclination, or education, for that matter, to understand the technical data. They take what is being pushed as truth.

The reality is that earths climate changes. Over the eons, there have been extremes from "snowball earth", to periods of zero glaciation. That is not arguable to any reasonable person.

The question then becomes, how much are humans affecting the climate at this point in time?



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 07:55 AM
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a reply to: Mach2

Thank you.




The question then becomes, how much are humans affecting the climate at this point in time?


You can get fairly close to an answer if you approach the question on a region by region basis. Which is exactly what climate science does.

The idea here is, to provide an opportunity to take a closer look at what the data can show us.

You can find out how exactly things have changed where you live.



edit on 21-3-2019 by WilliamR because: (no reason given)


edit on 21-3-2019 by WilliamR because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 08:07 AM
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Climate literacy

Begins with the fact the climate is a perpetual motion engine.

Not doing anything new, and has been in a constant state of change since Gensis( If you believe that sort).

People running around like a bunch of chittle littles screaming the sky is falling serves no real purpose.

Other than to spread fear, and paranoia.

And those charts are meaningless.

A snap shot out of billions of years.
edit on 21-3-2019 by neo96 because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 08:18 AM
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a reply to: neo96

You live on an island with high powered guns. Why do you care one way or the other if fossil fuel is burned or not?

If the threat of global warming is taken seriously the price of gasoline will probably drop as demand wanes. It's probably good deal for you and your red neck RTV lifestyle.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 08:20 AM
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a reply to: dfnj2015

I do care.

A fossil fuel generator is the only thing going to keep a lights on during a nuclear winter, or whatever climate disaster happens.

Since solar,wind depends on the CLIMATE to work.

See change.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 08:37 AM
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originally posted by: dfnj2015
a reply to: WilliamR



I think we have too much carbon in the atmosphere. It's probably coming from burning fossil fuels. Just my opinion.


Don't forget the rising global sea surface temps;





This graph shows how the average surface temperature of the world’s oceans has changed since 1880. This graph uses the 1971 to 2000 average as a baseline for depicting change. Choosing a different baseline period would not change the shape of the data over time. The shaded band shows the range of uncertainty in the data, based on the number of measurements collected and the precision of the methods used.

Data source: NOAA, 20166 Web update: August 2016




Key Points

Sea surface temperature increased during the 20th century and continues to rise. From 1901 through 2015, temperature rose at an average rate of 0.13°F per decade (see Figure 1).

Sea surface temperature has been consistently higher during the past three decades than at any other time since reliable observations began in 1880 (see Figure 1).

Based on the historical record, increases in sea surface temperature have largely occurred over two key periods: between 1910 and 1940, and from about 1970 to the present. Sea surface temperature appears to have cooled between 1880 and 1910 (see Figure 1).

Changes in sea surface temperature vary regionally. While most parts of the world’s oceans have seen temperature rise, a few areas have actually experienced cooling—for example, parts of the North Atlantic (see Figure 2).


www.epa.gov...
edit on 13CDT08America/Chicago04180831 by InTheLight because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 08:42 AM
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I'd like to keep the focus on what the data can show us, as much as possible. If your mind is already made up or you aren't curious at all, commenting here doesn't really move the discussion forward.

To me, the least interesting part about climate change is a constant debate with very little basis in facts.

Climate does change, if you're interested to find out how, then we can do that here.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 08:49 AM
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a reply to: InTheLight

Knowing how global sea surface temperatures have changed, still doesn't tell us how that might affect the regions we live in.

The purpose here is to show and to discuss, how and why large scale averages can only provide very limited information.

We can take a closer look, the data is there.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:08 AM
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originally posted by: WilliamR
a reply to: Mach2

Thank you.




The question then becomes, how much are humans affecting the climate at this point in time?


You can get fairly close to an answer if you approach the question on a region by region basis. Which is exactly what climate science does.

The idea here is, to provide an opportunity to take a closer look at what the data can show us.

You can find out how exactly things have changed where you live.





I would disagree with that premise.

Regional temperatures can vary over large time periods due to other factors.

That is one reason I tend to give more weight to atmospheric data, as opposed to ground level data.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:11 AM
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originally posted by: Mach2

originally posted by: WilliamR
a reply to: Mach2

Thank you.




The question then becomes, how much are humans affecting the climate at this point in time?


You can get fairly close to an answer if you approach the question on a region by region basis. Which is exactly what climate science does.

The idea here is, to provide an opportunity to take a closer look at what the data can show us.

You can find out how exactly things have changed where you live.





I would disagree with that premise.

Regional temperatures can vary over large time periods due to other factors.

That is one reason I tend to give more weight to atmospheric data, as opposed to ground level data.


I concur with your take on this Mach2.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:13 AM
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originally posted by: WilliamR
I'd like to keep the focus on what the data can show us, as much as possible. If your mind is already made up or you aren't curious at all, commenting here doesn't really move the discussion forward.

To me, the least interesting part about climate change is a constant debate with very little basis in facts.

Climate does change, if you're interested to find out how, then we can do that here.


I would respectfully suggest, your mind is already "made up".

Am I wrong in that assumption?



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:18 AM
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a reply to: Mach2




That is one reason I tend to give more weight to atmospheric data, as opposed to ground level data.


Ground level/surface data is exactly the data that shows us how temperature changes might affect all living systems around us.

It wouldn't be nearly enough to understand the entire system, but it is the part the matters to us the most.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:31 AM
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originally posted by: WilliamR
a reply to: Mach2




That is one reason I tend to give more weight to atmospheric data, as opposed to ground level data.


Ground level/surface data is exactly the data that shows us how temperature changes might affect all living systems around us.

It wouldn't be nearly enough to understand the entire system, but it is the part the matters to us the most.


Again, i disagree that it matters the most.

By your own admission, it's "not nearly enough to understand the entire system"

Therefore, it, by definition, doesn't matter the most.

I have an open mind about AGW, but when you make an illogical statement like that, it seems like you are cherry picking data to support a theory.

To the original question, is your mind already made up? You admonished another for not being open minded.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:35 AM
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a reply to: Mach2




I would respectfully suggest, your mind is already "made up".


I'm not really sure how you got there. If you mean that i have decided i've figured it all out, then no. I started diving deeper into the science around 10 years ago and i'm still actively trying to understand how the climate system works.

I do think the only way to do that, is by following the data. Surface temperatures are a good place to start, because we can relate any changes to the world around us.

Isn't that exactly what climate science is all about?



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:50 AM
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a reply to: Mach2




Therefore, it, by definition, doesn't matter the most. I have an open mind about AGW, but when you make an illogical statement like that, it seems like you are cherry picking data to support a theory.


If you want to find out how the place where you live has changed, where do you look?

What would logic tell us?


I think it is difficult to discuss all things at once, that's why i made the comment about keeping the discussion focused. There wouldn't be any reason for me to still follow the science if my mind was made up.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:50 AM
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originally posted by: WilliamR
a reply to: InTheLight

Knowing how global sea surface temperatures have changed, still doesn't tell us how that might affect the regions we live in.

The purpose here is to show and to discuss, how and why large scale averages can only provide very limited information.

We can take a closer look, the data is there.


Of course it does, perhaps you need to take a closer look. Also why dismiss carbon and methane in the atmosphere as a contributing factor for regional climate change?

earthobservatory.nasa.gov...

We should be looking at this from all sides.



posted on Mar, 21 2019 @ 09:52 AM
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William,

I applaud your effort to understand climate change. It's far more than most, on either side of the arguement care to do.

The biggest problem I see to making progress on understanding this issue, is when ppl make wild claims about humanity being in chaos in a decade, for example. It makes them sound like lunatics, not to be taken seriously.




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