Increasing Seismicity near Toba Supervolcano may be concerning

Earlier today there was a 5.2 quake within 100 km or so of Toba. And just a bit ago, another 5.4 has occurred about 100 km southeast of that one, but yet still within about 100 km of Toba:


We watched these come in at SpectroNet on the live seismic monitor. Now the problem with this is that increasing seismicity could lead to a bigger one, and the way those two quakes are aligned suggest that a portion of the upper lip of subduction may be getting ready to move. That means yes, there could be a megathrust quake coming- and no need to imagine- yes that's bad... 8+ or even 9+.

But an even bigger issue is where this could happen might possibly affect the Mega Beast, Toba. A massive quake so close to that monster could do unimaginably bad things, like set it off if it knocked a cap loose and disturbed the otherwise contained magma pressure from the plume hotspot it sits over.

I know we don't like doom porn, but the Japanese would have probably appreciated a little as a warning before the 9+ back in 2011.

As a reminder, we all know what happened in 2004 with the mega quake (M9.1+) and catastrophic tsunami that killed over 250,000. That quake's epicenter was northwest of where these are occurring, and far enough removed from Toba that the planet dodged a bullet. That could have been so much worse. So I am hoping this seismicity stays in check, and away from that behemoth. Let's hope statistics keep a real bad one like this from occurring anywhere NEAR that beast.

But still it is a situation that bears watching, and you better believe, I'm watching it closely.

Indonesia and that area definitely worth keeping an eye on
5.8 in New Guinea, not sure if related

thanks for OP

You may like this for convenience....... hisz.rsoe.hu...#

I like to hear your updates on this kind of stuff. It may not involve me directly, but is still great to learn about.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Well add this to your other thread Scientists warn Hokkaido about ‘imminent’ megaquake www.abovetopsecret.com...

Then add what they are saying about the West Coast and it looks like multi-mega doom porn is whats for lunch!

originally posted by: rickymouse
I like to hear your updates on this kind of stuff. It may not involve me directly, but is still great to learn about.

I guess anything involving a Super Volcano will effect everyone directly.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Always bittersweet when you post TA...

You’re a wealth of information regarding this topic and I always find your contributions informative and educational but there’s always a certain foreboding that comes with your updates that leaves me slightly on edge.

In truth though, I’d much rather that than be ignorant.

Keep it up mate

Last I heard about this particular Supervolcano was that “experts” didn’t expect it to erupt again for tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Was that ever accurate? And if so, is it still an accurate assessment?

(I understand that you can never be 100% certain with predicting geologic activity)

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Another doom thread, cheers TA - you have been missed!

I've long thought the Toba super eruption was horrific for mankind and that the Toba Catastrophe Theory was probably correct.

However, since the back end of last year i have read some articles and watched a dew documentaries (on the human journey from pre history to present) that are actually not just challenging but actually overturning this theory. For example, continuous development at sites in East Timor pre and post Toba super eruption. Some of these sites are showing a continuous presence through this event, others a slight interruption. So, even if this goes boom, it is not necessarily curtains for humans in that neck of the woods. That said, if it did go boom, i am glad i would be watching from over in blighty rather than close to it!

As to loading stress on the plate, there was some serious uplift during the 2004 quake (40 feet or more in places). It would be hard to imagine how such drastic uplift DID NOT impart further stress down the plate.

originally posted by: Flavian
a reply to: TrueAmerican
However, since the back end of last year i have read some articles and watched a dew documentaries (on the human journey from pre history to present) that are actually not just challenging but actually overturning this theory. For example, continuous development at sites in East Timor pre and post Toba super eruption. Some of these sites are showing a continuous presence through this event, others a slight interruption. So, even if this goes boom, it is not necessarily curtains for humans in that neck of the woods..

Yes, I have been reading some things about that too. They are still trying to piece together exactly how much ash fell where, and this is obviously difficult because of unknown wind patterns at the exact time of the eruption, among other things like local erosion. Ash fall models for this event suffer from large discrepancies of the observed data, although they are continually refining them. As an example, this scientific document states that it was actually much worse than previously thought:

These simulations indicate that the YTT eruption was considerably more voluminous than previously thought, erupting 8600 km3 (~3800 km3 DRE) and covering ~40 million km2 with more than 5 mm of ash. The volcanological parameters constrained by the model also provide insight into the processes occurring in the eruption column. The model indicates that the MER was enormous during the YTT eruption, which implies that the eruption generated a huge gravitational current around the neutral buoyancy level in the stratosphere transporting ash quickly and radially around the vent into distal regions. This is likely to be a process that occurs during other super-eruptions.

www.frontiersin.org...

Its actual effect on the human species, and the supposed bottlenecking that occurred of our gene pool may never be known with any degree of certainty. That is largely because:

The exact geographic distribution of anatomically modern human populations at the time of the eruption is not known, and surviving populations may have lived in Africa and subsequently migrated to other parts of the world. Analyses of mitochondrial DNA have estimated that the major migration from Africa occurred 60,000–70,000 years ago,[50] consistent with dating of the Toba eruption to around 75,000 years ago.

en.wikipedia.org...

But regardless, the human species, now with some 7.7 billion+ on the planet living today, would be so vastly more affected by such an eruption, I couldn't even conceive of the repercussions of such an event now. I say it would be a near ELE because of the sheer competition for remaining resources, if nothing else.

Update:
No further M4+ seismic events have occurred so far in the region, which of course is a good thing.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

That area is always rocking 5+ , I'm surprised that there isn't more tsunami's hitting land .

a reply to: TrueAmerican

This is getting too close for comfort.

I hope the usgs has sensors located directly above the subduction zones, because if it is slipping, it will go at a moment's notice and at that moment real time alerts will help issue warnings to the entire Indo-Pacific region, the result could be worse than 2004.

originally posted by: rickymouse
I like to hear your updates on this kind of stuff. It may not involve me directly, but is still great to learn about.

Actually, it would involve everyone if the concerns of TrueAmerican come true. Toba is a supervolcano after all.

The Toba supervolcano caused a mass extinction the last time it erupted 75,000 years ago. It might not mean the end of the world, but for a lot of people it would unfortunately.

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse

originally posted by: rickymouse
I like to hear your updates on this kind of stuff. It may not involve me directly, but is still great to learn about.

Actually, it would involve everyone if the concerns of TrueAmerican come true. Toba is a supervolcano after all.

The Toba supervolcano caused a mass extinction the last time it erupted 75,000 years ago. It might not mean the end of the world, but for a lot of people it would unfortunately.

Just because a volcano is a super volcano does not mean it will erupt super every time. It could just be a normal eruption, maybe just a little bigger than average. It could blow wildly though, but we won't know till it happens. Right now I am concerned more for the people in the area and maybe people who might be effected by tidal waves.

The evidence does look like an eruption is in the near future.

a reply to: rickymouse

Actually, just because it is a super-volcano it's eruption will be bigger than that of other regular volcanoes. The eruptions of super-volcanoes are rare, but catastrophic. The "smaller eruptions" in super-volcanoes are simply aftershocks which can last for thousands of years (check that as "tens of thousands of years") as they experience structural adjustments.


New study documents aftermath of a supereruption, and expands size of Toba magma system

People forget that GIA has shrugged life off her shoulders before !