Scientists warn Hokkaido about ‘imminent’ megaquake

Changes around the Kuril Trench are similar to those observed before the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and a government panel is warning that another tsunami-spawning megaquake could devastate eastern Hokkaido.

Scientists failed to warn against the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck on March 11, 2011, and killed around 18,000 people on the coast of the northeastern Tohoku region.

With indications that the next “big one” is imminent, they are determined not to make the same mistake.

That sentiment was expressed when Ritsuko Matsuura, who heads the analysis division of the public-interest entity Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, addressed a gathering of seismologists in August.

www.asahi.com...

Well as the saying goes, we still cannot predict earthquakes, but in this case it may be prudent to heed these warnings, as changes in the geology near the Southern Kuril Trench are showing similar signs that led up to the massive 9+ and huge tsunami that devastated Japan on March 11, 2011.

I am liking the scientist's attitudes of "better safe than sorry," especially when they have at least some scientific evidence and can make some correlations. From what I've read, they did discover not only subsidence prior to the 9+, but also a trail of smaller seismicity (less than M4) that led very close to the epicenter. Perhaps this time they are a little less worried about their reputation, and a LOT more worried about their people, to make such a risky prediction- seeing as the odds are potentially against them that such a thing would come true any time soon.

Statistically, it is usually quite a lot of years (40+) before a quake as big as the 9+ 2011 quake would hit again anywhere near there. But we can never know exactly what the earth has in store for the blissfully unaware- or the unreasoning skeptic. I say good on them for the warning, and reputations be damned!

"Nuclear power in Japan. Prior to the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011, Japan had generated 30% of its electrical power from nuclear reactors and planned to increase that share to 40%. Nuclear energy was a national strategic priority in Japan. As of May 2018, there are 42 operable reactors in Japan" *Wikipedia*


You would think if this was thought to be eminent .............. well make preparations.

originally posted by: Plotus
"Nuclear power in Japan. Prior to the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011, Japan had generated 30% of its electrical power from nuclear reactors and planned to increase that share to 40%. Nuclear energy was a national strategic priority in Japan. As of May 2018, there are 42 operable reactors in Japan" *Wikipedia*


You would think if this was thought to be eminent .............. well make preparations.

Well according to this link, the only one potentially directly in the path of such a quake would be the Oma plant, which is currently under construction:
en.wikipedia.org...

The other two in the north have already been, or are in the process of, being decommissioned. But yeah, I hear ya.

Some of the sites I have read have people thinking something big is coming worldwide and claimed the Russians put out a huge warning.
www.mydailyinformer.com...

originally posted by: Justoneman
Some of the sites I have read have people thinking something big is coming worldwide and claimed the Russians put out a huge warning.
www.mydailyinformer.com...

a new report prepared for Prime Minister Putin by the Institute of Physics

Do you have a link to the official announcement .. and not dailyinformer

This doesn't sound too good for the people of that area. I hope it takes multiple moderate movements instead of a snap, but it looks more like a snap is in the future.

The Ring of Fire has been very active lately.

I wonder when that gets onto our shores. It's been very, very quiet for us, and that makes me worry.

That's about the last thing we need on this planet. Another leaking reactor. That last tsunami took out my dads old barracks. Its completely gone. He was on a ship, on his was to do a land invasion of Japan, when we dropped the bombs. Im fairly certain Dad would have been killed if they didn't surrender.

I sure hope Japan learned something from the last big quake, and took proper counteractions

a reply to: Spacespider

Per your source.

Focusing on the U.S., Mexico, Central and South America, and the region along the west coast of the New Madrid zone Fault

There is no west coast of the New Madrid zone. New Madrid runs along the Mississippi river.

a reply to: Spacespider

Every link in that article is blocked by uBlock Origin. Bogus site?

originally posted by: Spacespider

originally posted by: Justoneman
Some of the sites I have read have people thinking something big is coming worldwide and claimed the Russians put out a huge warning.
www.mydailyinformer.com...

a new report prepared for Prime Minister Putin by the Institute of Physics

Do you have a link to the official announcement .. and not dailyinformer

That "report" by the Institute of Physics of the Earth was made many years ago it seems. Here is a link on ATS from 2011 where someone else wrote about this prediction:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

As to the OP, it's good to see them taking this seriously. Many lives could be saved when the next big one happens there.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

the question is are the warnings and pushing of doom really needed? don't get me wrong, being prepared is always good. but do such constant doom porn about earthquakes and the big one" actually become counter productive. in fact when nothing happens for awhile actually in the end does it actually make people even less prepared? for example is California more prepared for the BIG ONE after years of doom porn going on about it being overdue? or have all those years of doom porn actually made people even less prepared because it has never happened?

in my opinion constantly going on about it, is actually counter productive. i live in an area where a few years back they started going on about THE BIG ONE being overdue. in fact i live within 2 km of the actual fault line that they expect to go off. and in the last few years they have also started earthquake drills all the time. and that is not just limited to the area, or even the island where they are expecting this big one to happen, but simultaneous drills country wide. personally i think all this constant drilling will make people far less likely to act. the drills have become a joke to much of the population. and in all honesty i find these drills very similar to the good old duck and cover drills from the 60's. and that is pretty much completely useless. in nuclear attack follow the plan, "duck and cover" and kiss your a$$ goodbye, because chances are unless you are not actually hit, you WILL DIE. unless instead of being silly about it and ducking and covering, you actually can make it to some sort of real shelter. it's much the same in an earthquake. they tell you to shelter (and lets be honest, it's actually pretty much the exact same as the duck and cover routine). and basically useless. your best bet if you can is to go outside, and hope a building or elevated railway doesn't fall on you. it really doesn't matter where you take shelter in a building, there is just as good a chance at being crushed and or buried as the building collapses around you. and unlike a nuclear attack, there will be no warning. no warning sirens. no announcements, no forecast. it will hit. and whether you live or die, becomes a thing of luck more than anything else. in fact the best you can actually do is make sue that things like buildings and structures are made as earthquake resistant as possible (and for here that is a big "yeah right, good luck with that"). when it hits there will be no time to go to a "safer spot" and duck and cover. you will be where you are when it hits. so really all the hype really doesn't do anything positive.

originally posted by: Justoneman
Some of the sites I have read have people thinking something big is coming worldwide and claimed the Russians put out a huge warning.
www.mydailyinformer.com...

When a news source makes a bold claim and can’t even get the geography right it’s not to worrisome.
Might want to lend them a hand and do a quick google where the New Madrid fault zone is located.
Hint: It’s not the west coast.

a reply to: CharlesT

It was not my "source" I was asking another user if he had another source for that.. as I believe its a bogus site

originally posted by: TexasTruth

originally posted by: Justoneman
Some of the sites I have read have people thinking something big is coming worldwide and claimed the Russians put out a huge warning.
www.mydailyinformer.com...

When a news source makes a bold claim and can’t even get the geography right it’s not to worrisome.
Might want to lend them a hand and do a quick google where the New Madrid fault zone is located.
Hint: It’s not the west coast.

And apparently English isn't some people's strong suit.

Bottom line to the reason for my reply is, there are other sites that will have a big earthquake as it has happened since the dawn of this planet. Right now other 'seismologists' see signs of a plate that affects the US causing an issue.

I always ask myself "Do we want to know about it or not"?

where do we place the danger of the Kikai Caldera in this thread ?

originally posted by: Spacespider
a reply to: CharlesT

It was not my "source" I was asking another user if he had another source for that.. as I believe its a bogus site

I'm aware of that. I didn't intend to imply you were passing the site off on us. What I posted was intended toward the OP. My mistake.

This seems to be the method they are using to determine the increased probability of a megathrust quake:

he Gutenberg-Richter Law describes the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes. A number of studies have shown that the slope (b value) of the relationship between frequency and magnitude decreased before large earthquakes. In this paper, we investigate the temporal variation of the b value off the Pacific coast of Tokachi, Hokkaido, Japan, during 1990–2014. The magnitude of completeness (Mc) in the catalog is evaluated by combining the maximum curvature (MAXC) technique and the bootstrap approach. Then, the b value, and its uncertainty, is computed by using the maximum likelihood estimation. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with the bootstrap approach is introduced to statistically assess the temporal variation of b values and quantify the significance level. The results show a decrease in trends of the b value prior to two large earthquakes (26 September 2003 (M8.0) and 11 September 2008 (M7.1)) in the analyzed area. In addition, the decrease of b values shows certain statistical significance three months before the 2003 Earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tokachi (M8.0). It is concluded that the b value with statistical assessment may contain potential information for future large earthquake preparation off the Pacific coast of Tokachi, Hokkaido, Japan.

Temporal Variation and Statistical Assessment of the b Value off the Pacific Coast of Tokachi, Hokkaido, Japan

I imagine that they are continually plugging information into this model and that results lately show that there is an increased probability that a large quake is going to be happening in the projected area.

a reply to: generik

I lived in the California Bay Area during the 80's to early 90's. For several years I lived across the Bay from Palo Alto, where I worked. I kept emergency supplies in the trunk of my car the entire time I lived there. So...where was I when the Loma Prieta Quake hit? In Idaho.

Was I bummed that I'd been prepared for years but then was out of state when the quake hit? Nope. Were the people at my workplace bummed that I was not around with my supplies? Possibly. But I know that AFTER the quake people came to me and asked me about my preparations and took the lesson to heart and prepared themselves.

Just because my preparations weren't needed in October 1989 didn't mean I emptied my trunk afterwards. I would much rather be prepared and NOT need the preparations, than live life with my head in the sand and then be very, very sorry I was so stupid. I live in Utah now...and we hear frequently that we're overdue for a large quake. Am I prepared? You bet your boots I am. It's just foolish not to be, where I live.

I don't think warning people of the potential for disaster is doom-porning. The reality is, if you live in California or up in Oregon and Washington, or along the New Madrid fault, or in Japan or Indonesia or along the West Coast of South America (or a myriad of other places around the globe) the potential for disaster is REAL. Educating citizens to be prepared, and educating them about the potentialities of a disaster is just common sense. What the people do about it (or don't do about it) can't be forced...but a prepared citizenry is exponentially better. Unprepared people tend to put enormous burdens on first responders and those who have prepared.

By the way...it's really nice to see you posting, TA.