originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: semperfoo
Russian doctrine has always heavily favored a massive cruise missile barrage.
Without defenses to stop them our airfields would be degraded, resulting in fewer aircraft getting airborne to defend against attacks.
There are simply too many military airbases and civilian airports in Europe and too few operational Russian Cruise Missiles for it to work out in
And defending Europe against cruise missile attacks is also not that hard. Lots of Legacy fighter jets around to fly BARCAP.
China, even if they can't meet us toe to toe in a stand up fight, has all the advantage in a fight for Taiwan.
Not really. Invading Taiwan is a nightmarish scenario. China does have the capabilities to force a landing. But then what? If the Taiwanese Army is
willing to fight they are perfectly able to make short work of any invasion force while the US disrupts the Chinese supply lines. Of course Taiwan
could just roll over once the first paratrooper lands on the Island, but if they dont - fighting against a decently equipped army in one of the more
densely populated Islands one the wrong end of a shaky supply line could quickly turn into a nightmare for China.
Bascially its not feasible. They are better off playing the long game and of course they know this.
As for fighting China, the key question is how much time do you have. Early setbacks are inevitable if you let your opponent fire the first shot, no
matter how well preapred you are. The main problem the US will be facing in a conflict against China is the pressure by the media, public and allies
to end the conflict as soon as possible, no matter the terms.
China can only "win" a conflict against the US by seizing what they can within the first days or weeks at most and establishing a cease fire.
If on the other hand the US is willing to actually go to war with China and commit to a conflict lasting many months to potentially years, China will
not be looking at a favorable outcome, no matter what.
It would be as simple as closing their shipping lines. They are already looking at having to import 80% of their crude oil by 2030. That’s just gone
during wartime. As is anything else they import, coal, iron, copper and other ores, petroleum products, food… you can absorb that for a couple of
months at most.
Guess what happens to their country if the US gets serious about winning the war. Going after the railway and energy network, pipelines are even
easier to knock out. Ever thought about what will happen in megapolis of 20 million when there is no electricity for a week?
China would fold like that in a year if it came down to it. Only question, is the rest of the world willing to let a couple hundred millions Chinese
die, just because Xi Jinping decided to snatch a couple of islands? I don’t think so.