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May's Government Faces A Confidence Vote, Will Her Government Collapse.

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posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:11 AM
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So last night I would like to think we had quite a good Thread on the go regarding the vote in parliament for Mays Brexit deal. For those who don't know that vote resulted in the biggest defeat for any government in history, it was a whopping defeat of 230 votes. Immediately following that that announcement Jeremy Corbyn stood up in parliament and motioned a vote of no confidence in the government.

Now for those who might not be fully aware, a vote of no confidence in the government isn't a vote of no confidence in Theresa May herself as PM but rather it is a vote taken by MPs asserting their confidence in the governments ability to operate effectively as set out under the Fixed-Term Parliaments act of 2011.

So will the motion pass?

Well for it to pass it needs to pass with a majority of MPs. Now, not including the 7 Sinn Féin MPs who never take part in Westminster votes that leaves us with 643 total votes, the speaker along with his deputies tend not to have their votes counted in such motions nor do the "tellers" votes that gives us a new total of 635. It is also likely that the one abstention from last nights vote (due to hill health) will also not vote so in total we can expect 634 votes in total. So if 318 MPs vote with "no confidence" in the government then the vote passes.

So ,if we do some simple maths and assume that the 8 independent MPs are not going to risk losing their seats along with the Conservatives 317 (well ok 315 minus those votes not counted but lets not muddy the maths) in addition to the 10 DUP MPs who have said they will vote to support the government that gives us a grand total of...... 335 in support of the government and 299 who would vote against the government which would mean the motion would not pass. Now this assumes that everyone votes along party lines.

Lets not forget that May recently faced a leaders hip contest that she won but 117 of her own MPs voted against her and 118 of her own MPs voted against her deal last night. That means that we can safely say that there are at least over 100 MPs who are very unhappy with Mays leadership regarding Brexit. This could have an impact on the maths because a vote of no confidence does not mean an automatic general election. Rather what will happen is that parliament then have 14 days to form a new government and failing that there is a general election. This means that its not entirely inconceivable that these 100 or so Conservative rebels (Mostly hard Brextieers) might vote against the government, thus ousting May and then form their own government although this would be a very muddy situation that would be almost unprecedented in UK politics. It also means that the maths above might change, it could also change if the DUP have a change of heart which would not be surprising.

So whilst it seams most likely that Mays government will survive this vote there is still an outside change that we could see another Conservative backbench revolt against the government resulting in the government losing the vote of no confidence. There could be some really interesting potential voting which makes a absolute prediction (like we had last night) all but impossible, there could be a huge backbench revolt, the DUP could vote against the government, Labour Rebels might not want to risk loosing their seats, the Queen to tell everyone to piss off and that the new government will be entirely made up from the Board of Rangers FC. Who knows what's going to happen!

There are a whole multitude of factors that play into this and no doubt it's going to be an interesting evening.

The vote is at 19:00 GMT tonight.

edit on 16-1-2019 by OtherSideOfTheCoin because: (no reason given)




posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:18 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Turkeys won't vote for Christmas but who knows? We are in uncharted waters. And probably up a certain creek without a paddle.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:27 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

We are in the truly amazing position where the government suffers the worst defeat of a standing government in Parliamentary history over a proposal from the Prime Minister yet the said PM will most likely survive the Vote of no confidence for the simple reason no-one wants her job at the moment.

With Brexit clearly being up in the air only a complete moron would want to assume the mantel of Prime Minister at present - Brexit is the proverbial hot potato and poisoned chalice.

The only thing we know with any degree of certainty is that Brexit will be no closer to being resolved tomorrow than it is today....its a complete #ing shambles of the highest order.

Our elected representatives have completely and utterly let the people of this country down and have shown our system up to be the outdated relic it so obviously is.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:29 AM
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a reply to: Freeborn

Yup its a total mess.

I think it shows how bad things are when even after the biggest defeat in history the PM basically can't step down because nobody will take her job.

Whole things utterly gazeboed



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:32 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think the government is safe for now , a General Election is the last thing we need right now and as oldcarpy says , turkeys and Christmas.
Corbyn wants a customs union deal , we'd be tied to the EU with no control over it ... the worst solution , he's a bloody idiot and I for one will never vote for him.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:35 AM
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a reply to: gortex

I kind of agree with you that I don't think a General elation is the right way forward.

Its a very strange situation we find ourselves in.

Interestingly I saw a poll earlier today that said that most people don't support the motion of no confidence, it will be interesting to see if that factors into the vote.

Overall my gut says its probably not going to pass but like I said in the OP there is the potential for some wild voting happening tonight that might skew the maths and give us a new government.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:35 AM
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originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: Freeborn

Yup its a total mess.

I think it shows how bad things are when even after the biggest defeat in history the PM basically can't step down because nobody will take her job.

Whole things utterly gazeboed


I'll take it , and stand up and say , government is over , part politics is over , parties are abolished, you can all go home you are fired ! and we are out of the EU
and monday we are hiring for a new government



out of curiosity what is our head of state saying about this ?



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:38 AM
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a reply to: sapien82




out of curiosity what is our head of state saying about this ?



She never really gets involved in this kind of thing.

She's probably just sitting with Big Phill picking her nose watching a bit of cash in the attic sipping on a nice cup of Bovril.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 07:43 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

hahahahah but of course

I for one , want a general election because I have had enough of the tories and their policies and there is no government thats united , so we get a general election and we get a "none of the above" option becuase UK government is done !
and we call it a day!

its over , brexit has broken the UK , we cant go on like this , its obvious the house is divided completely
the biggest defeat in the history of the UK parliament and we are here going forward just to spite the opposite parties

either general election or we raise the place ! (by we I mean everyone I ply with bevvy on the way to london)




edit on 16-1-2019 by sapien82 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:20 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin


I watched the EU 'big wigs' being interviewed this morning .......

and to all intense of purpose they are still telling the UK what they should

do!! while not budging in the slightest as of any compromise at all.

I can just see how their *temporary backstop insurance* would go.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:21 AM
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Anna Soubry has just declared her support for the Govt calling Comrade Corbyn the " most hopeless Opposition leader we've ever had" (true) and the ERG are backing the Govt too so looks like no rebellion coming our way.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:22 AM
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a reply to: eletheia

They can stick their backstop up their backside.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:24 AM
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originally posted by: oldcarpy
Anna Soubry has just declared her support for the Govt calling Comrade Corbyn the " most hopeless Opposition leader we've ever had" (true) and the ERG are backing the Govt too so looks like no rebellion coming our way.


Not really surprising, I didn't want to muddy the op with my own views one what will happen but my gut says the government will survive the vote.

I was just looking at a range of possibilities.

I still don't think though it's as certain of an outcome as it was last night.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:34 AM
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a reply to: oldcarpy

Soubry can # off , thinks getting called names is abuse !

then the papers are calling it fascist abuse

# sake , the government , sorry the conservative party are fascist , they support big corp , they steal from the public , they bail out banks, they impose austerity and impose tax breaks for the rich
they cause suffering and pain and even death !

mussolini would be creaming his pants right now if he seen the UK

the tories are an abuse on the UK public !

study showing conservative policy linked to deaths

Effects if health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis

I wonder what the figures would look like if the study included the rest of the UK



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:45 AM
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a reply to: sapien82

Evil Tories out to kill us all and send children up chimneys, you say? Not like that nice Mr Corbyn - fluffy kittens for all and stuff.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:52 AM
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Corbyn does want the PM seat and he wants to scupper any proper Brexit with it - he called the no confidence vote and he had no clear reasons to not back the deal , just complaints about social equity , as usual :
it's all the whining lefty snowflakes need to hear and then they're all "yay Corbyn".He doesnt complain about the CAP where we're all paying *European* landowners just to own land .

It's not wrong when it was put that we have the US Republican Party and the ruling parties of the five eyes network and Likud and our Conservatives wishing to see a Europe under proper reform , as in not ruled solely out of Germanic states .

Think of how we all fought them once before ... so a hard Irish border is the hardly the most difficult Germanic nuisance we the allies or this country has had to put up with in the past . There'll be a no deal Brexit and the EU can go hang .







edit on 16-1-2019 by DoctorBluechip because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:56 AM
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a reply to: DoctorBluechip

Corbyn has been anti EU all of his political life. So much for being a man of principle.



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:59 AM
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Considering that the European Research Group have said (previously and today during the ongoing debate) that they would support May in a leadership contest, meaning she will win regardless, what exactly was the point of this by Corbyn?

That is a genuine question - what does he hope to achieve by this? It just makes him look even more irrelevent and inept and was forecast from the get go. Is he simply surrounded by "yes men"?



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 08:59 AM
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a reply to: oldcarpy

im no about party politics or he said she said
the facts speak for themselves tory policy has killed people in the UK

but since you love party politics and since corbyn is supposedly a terrorist sympathiser then why has tory policy killed more in the UK than terrorism since the tories were voted in?



posted on Jan, 16 2019 @ 09:00 AM
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If ever there was a time for a modern day Arthur to reveal himself its now...but it isn't going to happen.

Did I see someone say they were going to get the beer in on the train down to London? Deal me in my friend!




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