Is China getting ready to Take Taiwan - Recent Sabre Rattling and Actions in the Area

a reply to: DexterRiley

That makes a lot of sense and is probable close to the way it will play out if we are lucky.

a reply to: Irishhaf

I think it would be a proxy war. We would arm them, maybe send some troops and such. I don't think it will come down to subs and ICBM's.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

The US has a mutual defence pact with China so such an act would bring the US, Japan and several other nations in that region in to defend Taiwan - south Korea would potentially hold back even though they are supposed to assist as well since they would not want to upset there own peace plan's.
This in turn would force the rest of NATO to also come in to assist the US since it would then be a super power vs super power conflict and in turn Russia would potentially come in on China's side in spite of past differences, other nations to watch for would be Pakistan that is very friendly with China but also does not want to upset it's western link's and also India that would be watching both China and Pakistan with Caution (and due to disputed regions with both of these nations potentially also looking for an opportunity to enforce it's claim upon those territory's.
It WOULD likely turn Nuclear at some point, either a limited exchange of a regional fashion for which the rest of the planet would be paying dearly in the form of fallout and radioactive cloud's OR even instigate world war three.

a reply to: LABTECH767


USA & Taiwan cannot prevent or meaningfully blunt a Chinese invasion using conventional weapons. The geographics and force dispositions are against that. The USA wouldn’t dare use nuclear weapons against China. To do so would invite retaliation. And the USA won’t sacrifice their bases/cities for Taipei.

I’ll be blunt.
Taiwan is a lost cause even before a shooting war begins.

originally posted by: TheShippingForecast
a reply to: LABTECH767


USA & Taiwan cannot prevent or meaningfully blunt a Chinese invasion using conventional weapons. The geographics and force dispositions are against that. The USA wouldn’t dare use nuclear weapons against China. To do so would invite retaliation. And the USA won’t sacrifice their bases/cities for Taipei.

I’ll be blunt.
Taiwan is a lost cause even before a shooting war begins.

CHina has a issue though....moving alll those troops. shooting down all their transports and sinking their ships would keep china from a invasion and force them into a corner. allowing russia to hit them from the rear and take over chinese land That we the US secretly made a deal for them to be able to get with no conditions except they not help china.(that would be a great move if it could be done)

And those carrier killers...lol. they need the GPS satellites to accurately use them. bye bye gps sats before they launch those.

a reply to: yuppa

Specifications for the Chinese anti ship “carrier killer” ballistic missiles is subject to speculation. But it’s not impossible to imagine that Chinese forces could locate a US carrier using aircraft, warships/submarines or their own satellite networks. US aircraft operating from those carriers aren’t particularly stealthy, neither is the ship itself.

Electronic counter measures and the carrier screened by destroyers equipped with anti missile defence may (or may not) prove effective. Meanwhile, while you’re busy playing cat and mouse and trying to protect that carrier, Chinese forces are busily rampaging across the waters and up the beaches. They won’t give you advance notice of their invasion, chances are it’ll be all over before Washington can even decide what to do about it.

Russia wouldn’t mount an invasion of China in the way you describe.

originally posted by: TheShippingForecast
a reply to: yuppa

Specifications for the Chinese anti ship “carrier killer” ballistic missiles is subject to speculation. But it’s not impossible to imagine that Chinese forces could locate a US carrier using aircraft, warships/submarines or their own satellite networks. US aircraft operating from those carriers aren’t particularly stealthy, neither is the ship itself.

Electronic counter measures and the carrier screened by destroyers equipped with anti missile defence may (or may not) prove effective. Meanwhile, while you’re busy playing cat and mouse and trying to protect that carrier, Chinese forces are busily rampaging across the waters and up the beaches. They won’t give you advance notice of their invasion, chances are it’ll be all over before Washington can even decide what to do about it.

Russia wouldn’t mount an invasion of China in the way you describe.

What part of DESTROYING their Sattellites did You miss? Not just the GPS ones. ANd they dont have to give notice. we have Satellites there in geo stationary orbit for observation. I seem to had posted on this a few times in the past. its called BREAKING THE KILL CHAIN.

ANd I said later on Russia woudnt do what i was suggesting as well but i see ya mised that. What part of That would be great if they would do that didnt you understand as sarcasm?

And What massive amphibious force does china have to do all this invading? they barely have a Navy to begin with. The only way china wins this is by not playing.

im not sayint the US is invincible but the chinese sorely underestimate the US navy.

originally posted by: LookingAtMars
a reply to: Nyiah

I have to agree. Unfortunately there are agreements with Taiwan and the US would have to abide by them or risk upsetting the global balance more than it already is.

This sounds a lot like the "web of alliances" which played a big role in the escalation of the conflict that we know today as World War One.

Taiwan would fold instantly.

I think the military will just stand around and not shoot at each other unless orders are given then recieved by troops.

Key point is that China has already infiltrated their government and military over the last 50 years.

I think it will be similar to how Crimea was taken by Russia without a single shot fired.

USA knows it will be WW3 if they attack China and simply wont do it.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

I already said that for the Chinese to do that right now they'd use 1000's of missiles and flatten the place, the US would come with a heavy hand and it would most likely escalate from there. Might even see China be invaded from all sides.

I say that because China has good enough missiles and it has nuclear weapons. It can't win without them.

My comments about being careful what you wish for was made in a general sense. Any move on Taiwan will see your country go to war.

If you didn't then everyone will be aiming to get nuclear weapons because anything less would be suicidal. The US is peace in the region, I don't think the support is going to last though.

If China wants to take Taiwan militarily it best be ready to invade the full Pacific and fast.

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: LookingAtMars

I already said that for the Chinese to do that right now they'd use 1000's of missiles and flatten the place, the US would come with a heavy hand and it would most likely escalate from there. Might even see China be invaded from all sides.

I say that because China has good enough missiles and it has nuclear weapons. It can't win without them.

My comments about being careful what you wish for was made in a general sense. Any move on Taiwan will see your country go to war.

If you didn't then everyone will be aiming to get nuclear weapons because anything less would be suicidal. The US is peace in the region, I don't think the support is going to last though.

If China wants to take Taiwan militarily it best be ready to invade the full Pacific and fast.

The USA is not fighting a nuclear war for Taiwan that would just be stupid. Just like they didnt fight a nuclear war for Ukraine.

The most the USA will do is supply weapons and train troops.
However the USA isnt going to risk a world war for nothing, what wuld they gain by helping Taiwan nothing. So will they be helping Taiwan who is a non NATO ally fight China? Hell No

a reply to: FormOfTheLord

Well they'd have a choice. Allow a televised genocide or do something about it.

Given past events I'm alluded to the latter. Just to add it's a little bit more complex than you make out since the US historically didn't want to recognise the "republic of China" it recognises the governing bodies of Taiwan.

The decision of war would be down to Congress, I'm a little rusty on the historical politics bit rest assured China isn't getting Taiwan without killing far too many people to be palatable to the Western world.

And again, it'll start a nuclear arms race.

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: FormOfTheLord

Well they'd have a choice. Allow a televised genocide or do something about it.

Given past events I'm alluded to the latter. Just to add it's a little bit more complex than you make out since the US historically didn't want to recognise the "republic of China" it recognises the governing bodies of Taiwan.

The decision of war would be down to Congress, I'm a little rusty on the historical politics bit rest assured China isn't getting Taiwan without killing far too many people to be palatable to the Western world.

And again, it'll start a nuclear arms race.

According to past agreements the USA does recognise the one China policy if memory serves me correctly.
One thing to look at is if Taiwan would survive a nuclear strike against China. No they wouldnt because of fallout. Actually most of Asias population from surrounding countries would most likely be killed off by a nuclear war with China due to nukes being dropped on China.

Another thing to look at is if we would decide to genocide the Chinese race with nukes to stop the Chinese race from taking over Taiwan. No they wouldnt because in essence its the same thing.

Also China has countless agents in Taiwan and the population is split on what they want. They are most likely already embedded in the military and government. These agents would probably sabotage the resistance by telling the military to stand down to avoid loss of life. Lets not forget the average person just wants to live a normal life and could care less about government and war. They would most likely capitulate so their lives would go on as usual. They would not be genocided off. However those who did decide to fight would most likely be doing so disobeying command and controll structures those in charge of those troops would be the main targets. By cutting off command and controll the troops will just follow the orders that come down the chain of command.

They would probably be ordered to stand down.

Finally if the USA has a war with China it also has to fight Chinas military allies like Russia and Pakistan and various other Asian countries. We call this WW3 and it is a pandoras box that once opened cannot be closed as various doomsday weapons on both sides do not need humans to operate and would destroy all life on earth.

So would Taiwans asian allies help? No because they would not want to risk a nuclear war with China.

All this to say it will most likely be a no shots fired transition of Taiwan to China.

What would change after transition? Not too much other than the comercial companies would get some new rules, the military would be under new rules as who they are able to buy weapons from. New commanders put in. That would be pretty much it in my opinion.

originally posted by: FormOfTheLord
Taiwan would fold instantly.

USA knows it will be WW3 if they attack China and simply wont do it.

on the other hand if China was to try and anex Taiwan (or other countries), and the US did not do everything in their power, especiallly militarily to stop them. and if needed free them from a Chinese takeover. the end result would likely be WW3.

originally posted by: generik

originally posted by: FormOfTheLord
Taiwan would fold instantly.

USA knows it will be WW3 if they attack China and simply wont do it.

on the other hand if China was to try and anex Taiwan (or other countries), and the US did not do everything in their power, especiallly militarily to stop them. and if needed free them from a Chinese takeover. the end result would likely be WW3.

So your saying that if the USA did not fight for Taiwan then it would be WW3? I seriously doubt that!
As far as our policy goes they are both China. I do not think we will fight a war wth China for Taiwan. I think we will assist them with the means to fight for themselves without putting US service men in harms way. The US military defends the USA not China. A war with China would not be a conventional one. The USA has zero to gain by entering WW3 with China and its numerous allies.

en.wikipedia.org...
The United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States does not challenge that position. The United States has not expressed an explicitly immutable statement regarding whether it believes Taiwan is independent or not. Instead, Washington simply states that they understand the China claims on Taiwan as its own.

originally posted by: FormOfTheLord

originally posted by: generik

originally posted by: FormOfTheLord
Taiwan would fold instantly.

USA knows it will be WW3 if they attack China and simply wont do it.

on the other hand if China was to try and anex Taiwan (or other countries), and the US did not do everything in their power, especiallly militarily to stop them. and if needed free them from a Chinese takeover. the end result would likely be WW3.

So your saying that if the USA did not fight for Taiwan then it would be WW3? I seriously doubt that!
As far as our policy goes they are both China. I do not think we will fight a war wth China for Taiwan. I think we will assist them with the means to fight for themselves without putting US service men in harms way. The US military defends the USA not China. A war with China would not be a conventional one. The USA has zero to gain by entering WW3 with China and its numerous allies.

en.wikipedia.org...
The United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States does not challenge that position. The United States has not expressed an explicitly immutable statement regarding whether it believes Taiwan is independent or not. Instead, Washington simply states that they understand the China claims on Taiwan as its own.

i am indeed saying that if the US did not fight for Taiwan, it could very well lead to WW3. this is because China will then see a weakness in the resolve of the US to protect her allies. and would then lead to them stealing yet even more territory from others. just look at China now and their bogus territorial claims far from anywhere near them. the choice would be for the world including the US to let China steal and conquer everything they want, or fight them, and beat them down like the dogs they are. and it would pretty much take a world effort to put them down if we allow them to be unleashed.

and yes it could very easily become an unconventional war, which normally refers to throwing nukes around. and that is why it is so very important for the US to Protect Taiwan and all other allies from the Chinese hoard. mind you it would be far better if the rest of the free world were to start getting involved, even now, and strongly discourage the Chinese beast from it's reckless course. and they should start by throwing China off their illegally built islands as well as doing as the US has been doing and send ships to do freedom of navigation exercises in the international waters and airspace that China has wrongfully claimed.

and as for the US not officially acknkolaging Taiwan. that has been wrongfully done to placate Communist China. and it is something that needs to be adressed. i hope President Trump like he did with the moving of the Embassy in Israel, likewise stops pussyfooting arround to placate a country that should never be placated. and officially recognize Taiwan as a separite and independant country, fully seperate from Communist China.

This is a pointless argument. There is no way on earth that China would invade Taiwan, not a chance in hell.

I know what Xi Jinping said, but they are empty words. China would not risk an invasion of Taiwan because of the backlash. I can see Xi Jinping trying to do it a different way, but invasion, not going to happen in my opinion.

I think the USA would do nothing at all due to the WW3 risk.

Sounds like the only way for China or the US to win, is not to play.