The most likely threat to your family in the next year

The chance that your home will be broken into this year varies greatly with location, but runs .05% - 1.6% per metropolitan statistical area.

Before you just blow that off in a fit of cognitive dissonance, understand that if you live to be 65, you'll probably be targeted by thieves at least once. And if you are, there's a 1 in 3 chance they will return within 60 days to burgle you once again, after you've replaced all the stolen crap with brand new shiny crap.

This is not a hypothetical, like an EMP or a pandemic or an asteroid crashing into Siberia. This is a realistic, credible threat to you and your household's safety.

Some basic facts, from crime watch literature.

-most thieves attack during the daytime, in the afternoon, in residential areas where most people will be gone for the work and school-day.

-thieves usually don't care if they are being filmed, often because they have identified the cameras and look away, cover their faces, or assume that the police will not actually spend the effort to find them. (Most police work is waiting for a thief to be caught in the act, and then matching the perp with all other outstanding cases...)

-they usually enter through a ground floor window, or by taking an exterior door off its hinges. They may enter through a balcony or upper window if there is a ladder outside on the property.

-they often work in teams, particularly in rural areas, with a lookout watching for the homeowners' return, or for the police being summoned by a burglar alarm.

Most thieves plan to be in and out of your home in about 7 minutes. They will target:
-consumer electronics in the living room; flatscreen TVs laptops, cellphones and Ipads
-family financial papers near a desk (like bills or checkbooks and credit card statements)
-car keys on a set of hooks or in the drawer closest to the front door.
-the master bedroom:

a) consumer electronics again (laptops, cell phones, e-tablets)
b) jewelry in the dresser
c) guns under the bed, in a closet, or in a gun safe that isn't bolted to the wall and floor
d) money and legal documents in a portable safe under the bed
e) prescription drugs in medicine cabinet
f) recreational drugs in bedrooms or a liquor cabinet
g) power tools and recreational equipment in an attached garage.

How would they do in your house, in 7 minutes???

Dogs are an effective counter to this activity.
There are plenty available at your local shelter.

a reply to: Graysen

Good reason to NOT live in the crappy cities! I don't! And for obvious reasons.

a reply to: shooterbrody
particularly if they are inside the house. Dogs that are out in the yard, with no pet door are far less of a deterrent.


There has been a spate of break-ins in my neighborhood, which got me thinking to post this. I live in a rural area. one of the first families hit came home to find their dogs running loose in the neighborhood. They dogs are kept in the yard all day. It seems the burglars let the dogs out, then entered the home while the dogs ran off to play.

Supposedly, one house got them on a security camera; but the cops haven't released the video. I wonder if its poor quality, if the police recognize the ppl, or because of some other reason.

Its been like, 8 burglaries of homes, and 6 of cars, within five minutes of my home, in the last month

a reply to: Graysen

If they managed to get past my dog and that is a big if. They could get about $20,000 real fast. Probably even more if they really looked.

Good information! S & F!

While I don't want to sound like I have a "this could never happen to me attitude", I don't think a thief would fare too well in my home.

My only jewelry is my wedding/engagement ring. I always wearing it. Like, literally, always. Shower, sleep, dishes.

They would get the obvious TV in the living room. However, it isn't that big and its not a smart TV. Purchased a few years ago for $300.

They would most likely get my laptop, but sometimes I even have trouble finding where I left it. Again, its 5 years old and I only paid $300 for it.

They could get my gun, but it's locked in a closet. I wouldn't go to this closet first to check for valuables. The gun was $200.

At a quick glance, I'm sure they could grab some tools and bills that have personal information on it - but really is that what they are looking for? I would think they are looking for a quick easy dollar.

They would also have to do all of this while my dog lay quiet. My 75 year old retired Vietnam veteran neighbor has quite the gun safe and I swear runs his own neighborhood watch in his head.

So maybe $1,000 if they are lucky? Don't get me wrong, I would be MAD. I also don't have $1,000 to throw around, but I think my house is relatively safe on the grand scale.

I'd like to believe that thieves would target homes with the highest return to risk ratio. Most common criminals are not that intelligent though.

In my rural area there are numerous summer homes and hunting cabins that would likely get hit first. Then there are sprawling farms and compounds with lots of out buildings that make for easier targets. Year round residents. esp. those with little to offer would be lowest on the list due to the risk to return ratio. Also, any security measures will help discourage the would be thieves, so the higher the security, the less likely you are to get hit.

However, there are a lot of meth heads around here and they are awake all the time, looking for any opportunity to make some quick cash. The more desperate criminals in your area, the more likely they will hit all most any target regardless of the consequences. Ultimately no one is safe, day or night, but you can lower the risk with different strategies.

ETA: I don't know what the statistics are, but I'd bet that most criminals commit crimes within a few miles of their own homes. Knowing who they are and where they live and congregate is useful security intel.

the cops are thinking that the same group is targeting both homes and cars. Cars if the home looks too secure (ie, has a dog behind the fence or inside the house?

We cleaned out all the vehicles so theres no contents visible looking through the windows

a reply to: MichiganSwampBuck

I definitely agree with you on picking the right place to live. My security is a my dog when I’m at work. My other security is my neighbors and where I live in proximity to Las Vegas. I live just outside in Henderson NV kinda near Boulder City. Much less crime here and nice people.
Except for Vector99.....I see the police heli over his place all the time

originally posted by: Graysen
the cops are thinking that the same group is targeting both homes and cars. Cars if the home looks too secure (ie, has a dog behind the fence or inside the house?

We cleaned out all the vehicles so theres no contents visible looking through the windows

Where my office is at is kinda in a poopy part of Vegas so I always used to keep my car clean on the inside and never keep anything besides a case of water.
Though as of 1 month ago I did start my own business as a side gig so now I have tile examples and tools in the trunk. That makes me nervous at times but so far so good. If my car does happen to be a target at some point I think I’ll be ok.
I used to carry in my car and leave it in when I’m in the office but since I started my own business and some times have those magnets on the side of my car I don’t carry as much. I would just feel horrible if someone broke in under the assumption that I had tools(and they would be correct) and found it and then used it for nefarious reasons.

I live a few blocks from a crappy neighborhood. My town is considered to be wealthy. Unfortunately, we get a lot of thugs and crackheads crossing the border into our town to rob and steal.

My house has never been broken into, but I did accidentally leave our garage door open a few hours and sure enough, someone stole two mountain bikes.

We have an alarm system and never leave the house without turning it on. I've noticed that the thieves usually target lazy homeowners who don't have alarms or who leave ground floor windows open or unlocked.

On the flip side, our family has a vacation home on Martha's Vineyard. People literally leave their doors open and unlocked all the time. Multi-million dollar homes. Burglaries simply don't happen.

Cameras work, signs saying you have cameras work just secure the recorder and have cameras on your cameras. I have 16 covering every corner twice. The driveways covered by license plate cameras in rocks. DVR is in the garage bolted under a workbench. Lots of work to find it.

Friend had break in with cameras they didn't get much but cops around here post pictures and videos on Facebook. Less than 24 hours all the stuff from several B&E's was being processed for return to owner and a couple of women in cute little cowgirl skirts tops and even hats were in jail

originally posted by: Edumakated
I live a few blocks from a crappy neighborhood. My town is considered to be wealthy. Unfortunately, we get a lot of thugs and crackheads crossing the border into our town to rob and steal.

My house has never been broken into, but I did accidentally leave our garage door open a few hours and sure enough, someone stole two mountain bikes.

We have an alarm system and never leave the house without turning it on. I've noticed that the thieves usually target lazy homeowners who don't have alarms or who leave ground floor windows open or unlocked.

On the flip side, our family has a vacation home on Martha's Vineyard. People literally leave their doors open and unlocked all the time. Multi-million dollar homes. Burglaries simply don't happen.

Next time you are at your family vacation home please take some pictures and share them.

I have my guard bull, Pleymo, loose between me ant the highway. 1000lb of love that most crooks do not expect.

a reply to: Graysen

Let's see here... They would get my work laptop which wouldn't provide much. They'd have to be methodical and not fast or in a hurry to get my flat screen, they'd never find my guns unless they were very professional, my wife's keys stay in her purse when she rides to work with me, my truck can be tracked through Uconnect, the expensive jewelry is in my wife's ears and around her neck, and my Australian Shepherd doesn't take kindly to strangers.

So, they'd get away with a little bit, but the most expensive stuff would be safe.

a reply to: Graysen

There have been several break-ins in my sister and bro-in-law's neighborhood. It's not gated but it's one of the most upscale in the city and one you never had to worry about before this past month. I live in the country and there haven't been any break-ins in my area.

a reply to: ttropia

We live fairly remote from everywhere. My secondary line of defense are my geese and several guinea fowl. The guineas will raise such a racket no one wants to stay around and the geese are very territorial; worse than most dogs.

a reply to: ttropia

A guard bull? How cool!!!

That's an idea that will be rattling around inside my head... Especially if I find the right country ranch/farm in Tennessee when I finally get around to relocating.

...and geese. Natures burglar alarm.

Of course, dogs will be around, too. Not to mention, me.

a reply to: Graysen

Here's a link from October. This is my sister's neighborhood. Her and her husband have a very vicious Boxer and German Shepherd. I hate going over there because they rush you when you open the door and I don't wanna get bit. Doubtful I ever would, but still. The Boxer rolls over and starts to pee from excitement when she sees me and I pet her. Mean as hell though.

Shooting, Car Burglaries Have Police and Community on High Alert

Here's 4 that have been busted breaking into cars and houses



And this one was the one who shot the Airman when he chased her out of his house. She turned and shot him.