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Market headed towards recession territory

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posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 07:02 PM
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I know, the unemployment number is low. Anyway,



He's kind of a perma bear on the market however this video is accurate IMO and here's why...

Vulcan Materials stock price

Cemex Stock

2 major building materials companies (among a bunch of others) have been in massive decline over the last 6 months. The construction industry does slow down a lot towards the end of the year however there has been an unusual slowdown in the housing market.

Oil Price Falling


US crude oil prices have crashed almost 26% from their peak in October as fear of a shortfall in supply has turned into talk of a glut.


St Lious Fred Housing Supply

Housing inventory is on the rise especially in the previous hot markets like Seattle and Southern California. Actually they are seeing a dramatic shift in inventory and pricing in both of those areas. This is due to the fact that the majority of the worlds population especially American's simply can't afford to get into the market.

Fed leaves rates unchanged


The Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, unanimously approved keeping the federal funds rate in a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent.
There was no mention of the volatility that has gripped financial markets since mid-October in the central bank's statement.
The committee noted in the statement that the unemployment rate "has declined" since the September meeting.
The statement noted that the "growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year."


Even the Fed is starting to see it in the data.




posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 07:17 PM
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I wouldn't worry too much. trumps trickle down economy will make it bigly better.

The tariffs also should help!!






posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 07:18 PM
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a reply to: olaru12

but duh unemployment numbers are low TRUMP R AWESOMEEEE yay!!! actually commercial construction is still doing very well but home building and the private sector are not doing so hot in my state.

let's see, 2 army bases, 2 hospitals, 3-4 schools

yea that's most of the jobs we've worked on in the last 2 years but it's still very busy in that area
edit on 14-11-2018 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 07:50 PM
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Home sales always fall in the fall. Not worried. Record profits the last 2 quarters for us. Nearly $100 million in building for us including $8 million for a company day care, $55 million on warehousing and my new labs $35 million. Life's good


edit on 14-11-2018 by mikell because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 07:54 PM
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a reply to: toysforadults

Every business in my area that I work for is booming except for one.
They do mill work for construction but their slow down was from bad salesmen.

Steel coils.
Break lines.
Iron castings.
Molded rubber.

All still booming.



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 07:56 PM
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a reply to: Bluntone22

That may be what you are observing but the economic data is telling a different story

Anecdotes and all



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:02 PM
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a reply to: Bluntone22

You know I just thought of this I read a theory once about the grand solar minimums and that some of them have odd correlations with cultural and economic issues probably just psuedo crap though



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:03 PM
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I do not claim to be very well versed on the economic indicators..

But couldn't some of the tumble be tied to perception? like Mad Max taking over the finance committee chair and threatening an increase in regulations on banking/fiancé companies?



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:06 PM
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a reply to: Irishhaf

Yeah. Just like business and people would become more confident and take out loans during a Trump presidency.

wolfstreet.com...


Check out that article. In not saying all we see in economic growth is a voatload of debt because a lot of money was spent on large corporations buying their own stock back and I'm sure that put a lot of money into a few hands but that didnt impact a lot of people who actually need that boost and or people who can't access that actual growth via pebsion or 401k yet
edit on 14-11-2018 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:07 PM
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originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Bluntone22

That may be what you are observing but the economic data is telling a different story

Anecdotes and all



All I can say is that the multiple companies I find employees for are working full speed sending products all over the country.

Automotive.
Construction.
Consumer.

I've been in business to long to worry about experts and their cant miss predictions.



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:08 PM
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Housing market will struggle mightily with higher rates. 2 years ago you could get a 30 year at 3.4%, today it is 4.84%, at least according to FRED. This takes the 30 year monthly payment on a $250,000 loan from $1109 to $1314. As the FED keeps raising rates expect mortgage rate to hit 6% for a payment of $1509. To have the same payment at 3.4% as you do at 6%, price of home (loan amount) must fall from $250,000 to $186,000. $400 per month is a big deal for folks buying at the $250,000 level. Makes an even bigger difference as you move up in price range. This will be really bad for people with adjustable mortgages that can't refinance under good terms. They will get locked into higher than market rates to keep their home, and then rates will fall dramatically once enough damage has been done.



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:10 PM
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a reply to: Bluntone22

Weird because the constructions building suppliers have been trending down stock price for months

You dont need an expert to see it you see for yourself

www.marketwatch.com...

Its in the data.



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:12 PM
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a reply to: sligtlyskeptical

Oddly enough the Fed chose not to rate hikes. They seeing it in the data. Considering the debt to income ratio of our country its a no brainer.

Also they know they gotta slow down inflation because it was skyrocketing.



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:13 PM
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originally posted by: sligtlyskeptical
Housing market will struggle mightily with higher rates. 2 years ago you could get a 30 year at 3.4%, today it is 4.84%, at least according to FRED. This takes the 30 year monthly payment on a $250,000 loan from $1109 to $1314. As the FED keeps raising rates expect mortgage rate to hit 6% for a payment of $1509. To have the same payment at 3.4% as you do at 6%, price of home (loan amount) must fall from $250,000 to $186,000. $400 per month is a big deal for folks buying at the $250,000 level. Makes an even bigger difference as you move up in price range. This will be really bad for people with adjustable mortgages that can't refinance under good terms. They will get locked into higher than market rates to keep their home, and then rates will fall dramatically once enough damage has been done.


What do you see as far as housing prices right now? I realize your not an expert, just asking what you think. Are housing prices going to continue to rise until well into next year and then drop after the summer? Or do you see them dropping sooner?



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:15 PM
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a reply to: amazing

Not directed at me but that is very dependant on your location and with the Fed making debt less serviceable less people are buying which is leading to the high inventory and lower cost

Prices go down when rates go up its 1 way the Fed centrally plans our economy



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:18 PM
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The market is down because Democrats gained control of the House.

Regardless, this will be a buying opportunity for people like me. I look forward to making money off of the unfounded panic of other pessimistic investors and institutions.
edit on 2018/11/14 by Metallicus because: Sp



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:18 PM
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I would love to see how our economy would look if the feds balance sheet was back to pre 2008 stats:

www.brookings.edu...



Surly this non government agency isn't buying up the bad debt out there from banks and large corps. Surly there isn't a plunge protection team that manipulates the stock & bond markets from money created out of thin air.

It has been fascinating to see how long they can keep this zombie going.

If our economy is so strong, why are our interest rates at historically low percentages?

I would love to see how our treasury sales did if the fed stopped buying for just one month.

Naw, that can't be. Everything is AOK




posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:20 PM
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a reply to: ClovenSky

The central banks and the Fed cant continue with the inflation we've had over the last ten years without people kicking doors down

But you are spot on

Its not just them though either its the entire global central banking system propping it up
edit on 14-11-2018 by toysforadults because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:21 PM
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It's been going up and down for a while now, the dow was still over twenty five last I saw. This kind of activity was settled down for a while, it appears it is now getting more predominant again. I guess the ones who profit by the swing are back at it again causing these swings.

I haven't seen a sign of any major problems lately, but the honeymoon is over now, I can see it is back to normal where only active enthusiastic traders get rich. I would swear some people get high off of creating these swings so they can make lots of money.



posted on Nov, 14 2018 @ 08:23 PM
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a reply to: Metallicus

I know I remember when the market took a dive in 2008 I was selling an IPO at the time everyone wanted to talk.

Then the enthusiasm became excuses because people werent sure about the housing market then a week or 2 later came the pink slips



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