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Can Someone Explain Arizona To Me?

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posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:06 PM
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I just don't get the numbers.
Republicans had an advantage of 5+ in early voting
Republican Bucey wins governor by 15+
Republicans flipped a state senate seat and two state house seats
Sinema was recorded calling the people in her state imbeciles and saying her state was a meth lab.
Yet Sinema looks like she'll win, the first dem senator from AZ in 30 years.

Also weird:
2,156,329 votes for governor (1.218M for R)
2,162,522 votes for senate (an extra 6.2k total, only 1.039M for R)
2,123,574 votes for house members (39k fewer votes than the senate race, 1.109R votes vs 1.01D votes, about 10k R favor)
The dem (Sinema) leads by 32k votes

So more republicans voted early. More republicans voted for house members. 200k more votes for the R governor than the R senator. Why?

EDIT:
So the 39k voters who skipped their house members (where dems were supposed to do well) voted for the democrat senator (where dems were supposed to do poorly)? Yet they voted for the republican governor?

EDIT2:

1,010,238 D voters for house members
892,435 D voters for Governor (-11%)
BUT
1,071,947 D votes for senate (+6% OR +20% from governor)

Compare this to colorado:
1,206,169 D votes for house members
1,210,621 D votes for senator (+0.3%)

Or Utah:
302,218 D votes for house
267,898 D votes for senator (-13%)

Or New Mexico:
397,815 D votes for house
371,129 D votes for Senator (-6%)

Democrats left the party in voting for senator in the surrounding states, but in AZ it was republicans leaving the party??
edit on 11-11-2018 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)

edit on 12-11-2018 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)




posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:09 PM
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a reply to: Dfairlite

Shenanigans come to mind.
Hoping to flip the Senate majority?????



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:13 PM
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a reply to: DontTreadOnMe

The MI map also reflected these shenanigans. Whole state minus Detroit and the burb went red but we someone how a D senator and governor.



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:16 PM
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Votes somehow always get "amended" just in time 😎



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:20 PM
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Does not make much sense. There is one thing most people don't like around here is liberal and Democrat side of things.



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:20 PM
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a reply to: staple

Are you from AZ?



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:24 PM
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Said this in another thread.




AZ Senate race is "interesting" because the statewide race for governor saw the Republican Ducey win with 57%. Garcia for the Dems had 41%. 2% for the Green candidate. 

The statewide election for Senate shows over one-in-ten Ducey/R voters had to switch to a Sinema/D vote when it came to the Senate race. That's a 8 point swing over all for a candidate who is not remotely moderate. This is the "AZ is awful", "I think that's okay-Taliban" candidate. McSally the R candidate was pure vanilla. 

I just find that eyebrow raising. Statewide election goes 57-41-2 R/D/G. Statewide election on same ballot goes 48-50-2 after all the late vote counting, when early returns had the R candidate up? It might be more understandable if there was some scandal connected to McSally, but she looks boring. Green stayed constant, so those votes didn't flip to D. Had to be 12% of the R voters to make that swing.


Its also a little odd that more total votes appear in the Senate race than any other.



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:29 PM
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a reply to: RadioRobert

one in ten is huge. This is bigger than that. So if anyone here lives in Arizona, you should be talking to as many republicans as possible and asking if they voted for the R governor and Sinema. This should be a detectable shift even anecdotally. Don't stand by and let them steal the election.

If Sinema won fair and square, so be it. I just have my doubts based on the numbers. They're genuinely weird.



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:33 PM
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originally posted by: DontTreadOnMe
a reply to: Dfairlite

Shenanigans come to mind.
Hoping to flip the Senate majority?????

Yeah. That was my thought. RBG retires and stall until 2020, impeach Kav then load the SCOTUS with BOTH Obamas.



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:34 PM
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originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: DontTreadOnMe

The MI map also reflected these shenanigans. Whole state minus Detroit and the burb went red but we someone how a D senator and governor.



Look at the vote totals in Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw and Ingahm in particular. The Detroit metro area is nearly half the state's population. Governor and Senator are statewide elections. All of the House districts in those areas also went for the Dems of course. What are there, 14 districts? Looks like an even split. Here are zoomable interactive maps with totals:

NY Times - Senate results
NY Times - House results
NY Times - Governor results

You want to see something that is really hard to understand? (full size)



edit on 2018-11-11 by theantediluvian because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:39 PM
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Arizona is a company that makes some pretty good green tea. Is that a good enough explanation?



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:44 PM
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a reply to: RadioRobert

Ducey is the incumbent and the polls had Ducey with a 16 point lead. The polls were a tossup for Sinema v McSally.



posted on Nov, 11 2018 @ 11:58 PM
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a reply to: theantediluvian

Can you explain why the only state showing R's leaving their party in the senate race (at a huge 12% clip) is Arizona? For a candidate who called the people in her state imbeciles.
edit on 11-11-2018 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 12 2018 @ 12:16 AM
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originally posted by: Dfairlite
Republicans flipped a state senate seat and two state house seats


That's not correct.

According to this Bloomberg cartogram, and to the nytimes one listed above, only one house seat in AZ was flipped and it went to the Democrats. The Senate race is not done, but a lead for Dems currently.

Looks like only 3 House seats flipped to the Republicans, nation wide. 2 in Minnesota and 1 in Pennsylvania.

The Democrats flipped 35 seats so far, for a difference of 32.



posted on Nov, 12 2018 @ 12:26 AM
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a reply to: Mahogany

Reading comprehension is key. Go ahead and read what I wrote then you can delete your post.



posted on Nov, 12 2018 @ 12:32 AM
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originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: Mahogany

Reading comprehension is key. Go ahead and read what I wrote then you can delete your post.


Yeah, re-read it and you're still not correct.

What map are you going off of where two seats flipped to Republicans. Or are you wondering about some early, early poll that you took for granted?

In your five posts so far in this thread, you've provided zero links.


edit on 12-11-2018 by Mahogany because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 12 2018 @ 12:35 AM
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a reply to: Mahogany

Yeah, you're just not very good at reading. What is a state house seat? What is state senate seat? Why are the articles you linked not relevant?
edit on 12-11-2018 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 12 2018 @ 12:42 AM
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originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: Mahogany

Yeah, you're just not very good at reading. What is a state house seat? What is state senate seat? Why are the articles you linked not relevant?


It's all good, I'll explain it to you.



See those 9 squares for Arizona? Arizona has 9 House seats. 5 went to Democrats and 4 to Republicans. The one with the DOT is a flip. That flipped to Democrats.

For someone starting a thread on this very thing, I hoped you wouldn't ask what a house seat means, and that you would be able to read the cartograms.

Have a good night.



posted on Nov, 12 2018 @ 12:42 AM
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a reply to: rollanotherone

This is a good theory. What day did she fall? When did these extra votes start being "found"

Edit: she fell Wednesday night. About when the steals started. Sinema didn't lead until Thursday. Rosendale was in the lead until Thursday. Scott was well ahead and Broward was just beginning shenanigans Wednesday night.
edit on 12-11-2018 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 12 2018 @ 12:46 AM
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a reply to: Mahogany

Oh goodness, I'm embarrassed for you. Condescending and dense! What a winning combo! Each state has their own congressional house and senate, genius. A state house seat is a house seat for the states congressional house. A states senate seat is a seat in the states senate. These are not federal offices, they are state offices.
They do not represent the state federally they represent the local districts at the state level.

If you still don't get it, I can't help you.
edit on 12-11-2018 by Dfairlite because: (no reason given)







 
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