The Asahi Shimbun
Last month there was a lot of self-congratulation and grinning as the ruling coalition and Minshuto worked together to see a military emergency package through the Diet. Today, the smiles are gone, wiped away by a contentious decision to send the Self-Defense Forces to Iraq and very possibly into harm's way.
If things go badly-the normal state of affairs in present-day Iraq-and SDF troops die, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's career could nosedive.
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) submitted revisions to the government bill on Wednesday but the two sides are so far apart, any last-minute deal is about as likely as a Scud missile hitting its target.
Minshuto's vision for rebuilding Iraq contains a lot of things, but it does not contain the SDF, the heart and soul of the government bill. Minshuto wants to send civilians instead.
For the prime minister and coalition hawks, Minshuto's utility is at an end. Never needed numerically, the opposition party's support would have provided a fig leaf for a decision that has the potential to backfire.
But having walked this far out on the plank, the ruling camp is determined to pass the Iraq bill through the Lower House, unsullied by the main opposition party's diffidence, by the end of the week. The coalition intends to approve another piece of legislation-a bill extending the existing anti-terrorism special measures law-at the same time.
The prime minister full well knows the dangers, for the troops, and on a less permanent level, for himself. But helping to motivate Koizumi is a promise to the United States, in the person of President George W. Bush, to deploy the SDF to the crippled Mideast nation.
Unconstrained by promises, Minshuto members from the old Japan Socialist Party demanded Tuesday the entire bill be scrapped and the party gird for battle, hammer and tong.
Cooler, more pragmatic, heads prevailed at the leadership meeting.
One of these, Seiji Maehara, Minshuto's top diplomatic and security expert, said: ``If we were to just flat-out oppose the bill, Minshuto could be perceived as being against aid to Iraq. It's smarter to submit revision proposals.''
Clearly, the leadership wants to convince the public that Minshuto is not the old fire-breathing JSP, once known mainly for its uncanny ability to oppose everything.
After a number of options were considered, the party decided on the plan that would send only civilians to Iraq.
Minshuto President Naoto Kan said he is ready for a confrontation with the ruling camp, a fight that could come later in the month as the bill wends it way through the Diet.
If Kan refuses to back down from the ruling parties, the all-out battle could result in the dissolution of the Lower House and a snap election.
Although Koizumi denied it Tuesday, LDP Secretary-General Taku Yamasaki said the prime minister is prepared to dissolve the Diet if that's what it takes to pass the two bills.
Not everyone is behind Koizumi, even in his own party.
One senior member of the faction led by Ryutaro Hashimoto said Tuesday that Koizumi and Yamasaki could have underestimated the difficulty getting the Iraq bill passed.
Some LDP members, skeptical from the beginning, cite the government's failure to lift restrictions on SDF weapons use as a major source of concern.
Worried the inexperienced SDF may be walking into a trap, an LDP member said, ``If Koizumi wants to pass the bill this session, he will be held responsible for whatever happens.''(IHT/Asahi: July 3,2003)(IHT/Asahi: July 3,2003)
(07/03)
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