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What Constitutes a Win?

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posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:32 AM
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Election Day is finally here and it may be one of the most contentious in history. Both sides have said that this election will be a referendum on Trump's presidency. If that's the case then I guess we need to establish now what constitutes a win for each side. Current predictions place the Republicans gaining a seat in the Senate. At the same time the Democrats are projected to win 36 seats in the House.

If these projections come true then who can actually claim victory? It's undeniable that a Senate seat is more valuable than a House seat. But is the gain of one Senate seat worth more than 36 House seats?

To determine that we need to at least roughly estimate how many House seats a Senate seat is worth. There are 435 House seats but only 100 Senate seats. So at a base level we can say that a Senate seat is worth 4.35 House seats. Going further though a Senator holds their seat for six years while a Representative only holds their seat for two years. So we could argue that a single Senate seat is worth about 13.05 House seats.

Obviously this is only a rough estimate as the House and the Senate have unique powers granted to them by the Constitution. But I think this at least gives us a good starting point to determine who comes out ahead today. Based on these numbers the Republicans will need to overperform in Senate races and pick up three seats if the Democrats perform as expected in House races to pull even. On the flip side if the Dems underperform in the House and only pick up 20-some seats then the Republicans still need to overperform but will only need to pick up two seats in the Senate.

Of course this ignores the governor races that are also occurring today. It's much harder to quantify how a governorship relates to a House or Senate seat so I'm not going to get into that right now. It should be noted however that the Democrats are expected to pick up a number of governorships. So if things break even in Congress then it might come down to governor races to break the tie.

Obviously this is just my view on how to determine who can be considered the winner after today. How are you all going to determine what party comes out better than they went in come tomorrow?




posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:35 AM
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a reply to: Xcalibur254

Lots of liberal tears.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:36 AM
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I think most people, and this is just from what I have heard, are gaging a win by control of the house.

I personally am looking for changes in some policies in my great state of IL. I don't think I will be able to tell if I "won" by tomorrow. I want to see policy change which obviously takes time.

I would like to see an underdog or two win. There are a few people ( some that I can't even vote for) that I really admire their campaigning ways. I hope this election promotes more diversity in who runs and how they campaign.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:37 AM
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A loss would be voting in any politician, republican or Democrat or anything in between, who doesn’t act according to the laws and the constitution set before him or her and only acts along party lines.

A win, in my opinion, would be voting in politicians who follow the laws and the constitution set before him or her despite what party lines tell him or her what to do.

Worrying about which party holds the house or the senate is problematic and is what is dividing our country.

It’s not red or blue, it’s red white and blue. That’s the win we all need and deserve.
edit on 6-11-2018 by Assassin82 because: (no reason given)

edit on 6-11-2018 by Assassin82 because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:38 AM
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Already preparing to loose? Feels like you are looking for excuses.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:40 AM
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a reply to: verschickter

It's more like I'm trying to get people to commit to their victory condition now so we don't have numerous threads in the next few days explaining why X party actually won.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:44 AM
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originally posted by: Xcalibur254
a reply to: verschickter

It's more like I'm trying to get people to commit to their victory condition now so we don't have numerous threads in the next few days explaining why X party actually won.


Few days? It doesn’t matter how it turns out, people will post about today for months. Either to gloat, or to complain.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:47 AM
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I get it, I get it.

My opinion: The winners are going to be the winners, the loosers the loosers. I don´t know why this has to be challenged?

It´s like saying, the second who passes the finish line is the actual winner because reason X. I think that´s a slap into the face of those that actually get in first. It´s so wrong on several levels.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 10:54 AM
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a reply to: verschickter

The problem is there may not be a clear cut winner. I won't be surprised to see those on the Right claiming victory if they pick up a seat in the Senate despite losing the House. I also expect the Left to claim victory if they take the House but end up taking losses in the Senate.

Which side has a legitimate claim to victory in that scenario?



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 11:05 AM
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a reply to: Xcalibur254

Dems will claim victory if they pick up any seats. They are the party of moral victories since 2012. Having said that, this will hinge on turnout. If the Republicans hold on to both chambers, they clearly win. I expect they may lose the House, which would be a definite loss, but historically it swings in midterm, so they'll probably claim a moral victory if they keep the Senate or gain a seat or two there. If the Dems pick up 22 seats, but the R's keep the House, the Republicans win, but they'll both claim victory.


edit on 6-11-2018 by RadioRobert because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 11:09 AM
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A question for anyone voting straight democrat in opposition of Trump.

How do reconcile supporting the very same party that essentially installed Trump into power?

The republicans didn't want Trump. In the beginning there was no one more opposed to Trump than tried and true republicans and their beloved Fox News. They've, of course, changed their tune now because they're spineless jellyfish - but the point remains the same.

A corrupt DNC conspired to rig the republican primaries so that Trump would win because Hillary needed someone more repulsive than her to run against. And the only reason he is president now is because they botched the finish and screwed up their own work. Trump isn't the fault of some deplorables on the right. Trump is the product of the insidious left.

And now you are rewarding them for that... How mother####ing dare you.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 11:19 AM
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a reply to: verschickter

There will be no loosers, only losers...


Jaden



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 11:22 AM
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a reply to: verschickter

Dude please learn how to spell...

Jaden



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 11:23 AM
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It is just another election day. If what happens today makes someone all unstrung, maybe they have some crazy issues. The world is not going to end, Hitler is not going to come back to life. People are getting way too involved in politics these days, there is a society out there to go get involved in, we can just ignore these politicians because they tend to be deceivers half the time or they have to make agreements that are not good just to belong to the club.

I voted, I really am not concerned who wins, if the Liberals get all crazy in power, we just have to put them back in their place because we all have equal rights. We do not have to bow down to either the far left or far right, the majority are in the middle and need a good leader to keep them concentrated on the non-politically correct real world.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:01 PM
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a reply to: Masterjaden
"Dude"

I´ll do my best. Please consider that English is, not my native language and I did not learn it in any class. Second, how many languages do you speak, write and understand fluently?

Besides that, I am a bit dislexic and this is not ment as an excuse for lazy typing. Yes, sometimes my keyboard swallows some chars.

You know, you could also point out my mistakes instead of lifting the finger. And after all that has been said, several members wrote to me my english is good. Although I never believe that.

Have a nice evening, Mr. Spellcheck, I gave you a star so you can feel good.



edit on 6-11-2018 by verschickter because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:09 PM
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originally posted by: verschickter
a reply to: Masterjaden
"Dude"

I´ll do my best. Please consider that English is, not my native language and I did not learn it in any class. Second, how many languages do you speak, write and understand fluently?

Besides that, I am a bit dislexic and this is not ment as an excuse for lazy typing. Yes, sometimes my keyboard swallows some chars.

You know, you could also point out my mistakes instead of lifting the finger. And after all that has been said, several members wrote to me my english is good. Although I never believe that.

Have a nice evening, Mr. Spellcheck, I gave you a star so you can feel good.




I think people who point out spelling and grammar mistakes are the real Nazi's around these parts. Due to the education in America, even native borns write like English is their second language. You write pretty well.

But since you wanted help, "ment" should be "meant". But it was obvious what you were saying, so who cares? At least for the purposes on this web site.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:19 PM
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originally posted by: notsure1
a reply to: Xcalibur254

Lots of liberal tears.


Your radicalism is almost alarming



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:32 PM
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I don't think we've seen a congressional "win" in many years.

The parties are divided and division is a loss. The only win I can think of would be a bipartisan miracle.... and in this political climate, I don't suspect even the second coming of the christ could manage that one...

Don't get me wrong...I still have hope...it's just gonna be a long and painfully slow ride to get there...


A2D



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:36 PM
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As an independent, I'm not sure what constitutes a win or a loss.

I won't cry if republicans retain control of congress. I won't cry if democrats gain control.

I'll be mildly upset if republicans steamroll bad legistlation upon us, especially regarding the environment. I love to camp, and hike and boat. Not a big fan of pollution.

I'll be mildly upset if democrats block every single thing trump does just because. We had republicans doing that to Obama for years.

I'm sure one of those two outcomes is likely. Lose/lose? Either my environment gets wrecked or our government breaks down into a quackmire for 2 full years. Yeah.



posted on Nov, 7 2018 @ 04:09 AM
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a reply to: sligtlyskeptical

Damn it I thought "ment" is the past form of "mean" as in "the meaning of something".
Thank you!

Turns out, red is not the past tense for read and so the dominos fall. Thank you, I think you helped me very much by eradicating a huge flaw in my grammar.



edit on 7-11-2018 by verschickter because: (no reason given)




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