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Democrats will take House, Republicans will retain the Senate

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posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:28 PM
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originally posted by: amazing

originally posted by: Gin
a reply to: BlackJackal

You shouldn't believe in any polls but eh whatever helps you sleep at night.



And that's about as True as it gets. Even Trump thought he was going to lose at the beginning of that election night, because ...that's what the polls were telling him.


One thing to remember is the stigma people got when they said they were pro-Trump, I'm sure a few just kind of kept it to themselves during polling.

He resonated with a lot of people, many were using him as a protest vote against the establishment, and Hillary certainly didn't take burnt Bernie supporters in with open arms.




posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:28 PM
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Dbl
edit on 5-11-2018 by CriticalStinker because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:28 PM
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originally posted by: Allaroundyou

originally posted by: Sublimecraft
a reply to: BlackJackal


I see very little hope for the Democrats


Agreed, I think that it's because they have no message or policies that Americans are interested in. If they do manage to scramble back some power they will have exactly 2 years to roll out a 'candidate' worthy enough to vote for and they will have to start actually taking the economy, jobs, and border security seriously otherwise come Nov 9th 2020, they'll get torn another new one, especially if they want to keep not-learning from the lessons life dishes out to them. So far they have no one who could beat Trump - not by a country mile.


I am going to have to disagree with you a little. Yes the DNC has # themselves but there is someone that can really give Trump a run for his money. BTW it’s a lady


If you're referring to Tulsi Gabbard you might be right. Out of all Democrats, she is about the most palatable.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:29 PM
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originally posted by: Gothmog
Based on ?
The "Sight" ?
Mama Murphy ?


Based on the map mostly. The house races are mostly in city and suburban districts which favor Democrats and the Senate races are in states that are mostly red. Additionally, by all reports voting numbers are way up which traditionally favors Democrat candidates.


More than 35 million early votes have been counted nationwide as of Monday — well more than the total cast in the 2014 midterm elections.


LINK



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:29 PM
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As you can see, the median aggregate poll weights gradually move from high to low as you go from more Democratic- to more Republican-favored districts. What that means is we’ve got better polling in districts where Democrats are favored than races that could go either way or Republican. Ideally, we’d see more of a bell curve with toss-up districts having the highest poll weights, but this hasn’t been so. Most striking, however, is the sharp decrease in median poll weights in borderline-competitive Republican districts. That’s the kind of data that would help us foresee a blue wave — and unfortunately, it’s currently our biggest blind spot.


FiveThirtyEight: Some Competitive Races Have Little To No Polling. That’s A Problem.

I'm not sure banking on polls is such a great idea.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:31 PM
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What are your sources for your prediction?

You may find this interesting:
en.wikipedia.org...

Only SAB is optimistic enough to support your prediction.
CNN shows 15 Likely flips to D. Well short of the 25 needed.
Politico indicates 23 Flips to D. Still short of 25
COOK (Non-Partisan) indicates 18 flips to D. Still short....
Daily KOS (admitttedly Democrat) indicates 12 flips. Still short....

Why is it conservatives who are always getting accused of being uneducated and ignoring facts when it seems like it is their opposition which seems to ignore data that does not support their dreams?



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:33 PM
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a reply to: Strate8

I stated my sources above. I suppose we will wait and see if I am right or wrong tomorrow night.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:36 PM
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Well, it was said Trump would get the crap slapped out of him and then, get slapped again for crapping. The opposite happened so that is what we have to go on.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:36 PM
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Sure are a lot of insults in this thread? LOL

We're just having a discussion of who might control the house and senate after tomorrow night and giving our best and highly (amateur) predictions. I say amateur, because Rush Limbaugh and the Young Turks, both, won't return my calls for a guest spot as an election analyst. LOL

But you guys sure are getting worked up about it. Almost like it's an insult to your dignity to suggest that one of your teams congressional seats could go to the opposing team. (Inside tip...they're both not on our side)
edit on 5-11-2018 by amazing because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:41 PM
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originally posted by: amazing
Sure are a lot of insults in this thread? LOL

We're just having a discussion of who might control the house and senate after tomorrow night and giving our best and highly (amateur) predictions. I say amateur, because Rush Limbaugh and the Young Turks, both, won't return my calls for a guest spot as an election analyst. LOL

But you guys sure are getting worked up about it. Almost like it's an insult to your dignity to suggest that one of your teams congressional seats could go to the opposing team. (Inside tip...they're both not on our side)


Could you point out which post you found insulting? I just re-read it, and I must be missing it. I figured "a lot" would be more than one, but I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:45 PM
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For me it is the Rally numbers. If the dems had more people showing up than what could fill an outhouse, I would think they might have a chance, but given this, I'm thinking not.

House and Senate will be Red IMO.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:46 PM
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originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: amazing
Sure are a lot of insults in this thread? LOL

We're just having a discussion of who might control the house and senate after tomorrow night and giving our best and highly (amateur) predictions. I say amateur, because Rush Limbaugh and the Young Turks, both, won't return my calls for a guest spot as an election analyst. LOL

But you guys sure are getting worked up about it. Almost like it's an insult to your dignity to suggest that one of your teams congressional seats could go to the opposing team. (Inside tip...they're both not on our side)


Could you point out which post you found insulting? I just re-read it, and I must be missing it. I figured "a lot" would be more than one, but I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.


They're all minor Jabs and inuendos...like your party ignores data...etc. We're all looking at some data and doing some research...I realize non of mine is going to qualify as a doctoral thesis, but this is the fun of political threads, we can have a discussion and say why we think this way. I realize people are a bit rude on the internet, more than they would be in person, but I still don't know why people are getting bent out of shape.

As further proof monitor my post below and just the name michelle will cause heads to explode. Even though that name drop had nothing to do with policy or anything, but merely name recognition and celebrity status.
edit on 5-11-2018 by amazing because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:48 PM
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I don't think anyone knows for sure what will happen tomorrow.


The only thing I do know is that I will be fine, the left will still be angry, and we'll get to enjoy the 2020 presidential runs next.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:49 PM
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originally posted by: Sublimecraft

originally posted by: Allaroundyou

originally posted by: Sublimecraft
a reply to: BlackJackal


I see very little hope for the Democrats


Agreed, I think that it's because they have no message or policies that Americans are interested in. If they do manage to scramble back some power they will have exactly 2 years to roll out a 'candidate' worthy enough to vote for and they will have to start actually taking the economy, jobs, and border security seriously otherwise come Nov 9th 2020, they'll get torn another new one, especially if they want to keep not-learning from the lessons life dishes out to them. So far they have no one who could beat Trump - not by a country mile.


I am going to have to disagree with you a little. Yes the DNC has # themselves but there is someone that can really give Trump a run for his money. BTW it’s a lady


If you're referring to Tulsi Gabbard you might be right. Out of all Democrats, she is about the most palatable.


I like her, she seems like a decent human being and good leader. I like that she's a military vet too. Without getting into insults, I don't think she's big name enough to beat Trump, the Dems need Oprah or Michelle Obama or someone with that type of Charisma and name recognition. A celebrity.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:53 PM
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And in case there is a blue wave tomorrow get your tin foil hats on asap cause pigs are gonna fly....



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:57 PM
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a reply to: Gin

The level of polling error in 2016 was actually fairly small. Almost every demographic voted as expected except for working class whites. This level of polling error is expected every few election cycles.

While it's not completely unexpected for the Republicans to retain the House (about 15%), or the Dems to take the Senate (once again, about 15%), for either of those scenarios to happen we'd be looking at a complete systematic polling error. The kind that only happens once every few decades.

So while the polls may not have been 100% accurate in 2016 it is hardly any reason to completely reject them as worthless. Especially since a lot of the analysts modified their models to correct for the errors we saw in 2016.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:57 PM
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originally posted by: DBCowboy

The only thing I do know is that I will be fine, the left will still be angry, and we'll get to enjoy the 2020 presidential runs next.


I'm the same... The Democrats should take both...should.

Boy it would be so much fun if Republicans retain both, man the tears would flow.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:57 PM
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a reply to: Gothmog
Tea leaf reading, Duude ...

Oolong and Lapsang Souchong do not give the same results...! AWARE IS WARNED !



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 03:59 PM
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originally posted by: amazing

originally posted by: Sublimecraft

originally posted by: Allaroundyou

originally posted by: Sublimecraft
a reply to: BlackJackal


I see very little hope for the Democrats


Agreed, I think that it's because they have no message or policies that Americans are interested in. If they do manage to scramble back some power they will have exactly 2 years to roll out a 'candidate' worthy enough to vote for and they will have to start actually taking the economy, jobs, and border security seriously otherwise come Nov 9th 2020, they'll get torn another new one, especially if they want to keep not-learning from the lessons life dishes out to them. So far they have no one who could beat Trump - not by a country mile.


I am going to have to disagree with you a little. Yes the DNC has # themselves but there is someone that can really give Trump a run for his money. BTW it’s a lady


If you're referring to Tulsi Gabbard you might be right. Out of all Democrats, she is about the most palatable.


I like her, she seems like a decent human being and good leader. I like that she's a military vet too. Without getting into insults, I don't think she's big name enough to beat Trump, the Dems need Oprah or Michelle Obama or someone with that type of Charisma and name recognition. A celebrity.


But that right there could be the perfect reason to run. A name that isn’t commonly known with her background is exactly what we need.



posted on Nov, 5 2018 @ 04:00 PM
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originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: DBCowboy

The only thing I do know is that I will be fine, the left will still be angry, and we'll get to enjoy the 2020 presidential runs next.


I'm the same... The Democrats should take both...should.

Boy it would be so much fun if Republicans retain both, man the tears would flow.


I'm going to laugh regardless.

If the dems win, then we'll have 2 years of them saying how tax cuts are terrible for us and that we shouldn't have our own money, thus guaranteeing a great 2020.

If the dems lose? The outrage will be EPIC!




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