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Early voting in key states show that Dems dreams are in a pipe

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posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:36 PM
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originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: Gazrok

The confusion is that these aren't results of voting but of who has voted. We can assume that people who are registered with a party are voting straight ticket but that isn't necessarily true.


Many of the registered Dems I know (including me) are voting red down the ballot. (and this includes those who didn't vote for Trump).


Oh well -- here in AZ I know Reps voting straight blue.


Oh yeah, well I know dogs and cats that are voting for the mice...




posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:39 PM
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originally posted by: Gazrok
a reply to: Fools

The downside of them winning the House (if it occurs, heaven forbid), is the inevitable drive for impeachment, endless asinine investigations, etc. Part of me almost wishes they'd get their way, and then deal with a President Pence.

Definitely one of those careful what you wish for scenarios. Short-sighted lunacy.



I want a smash of the DNC mainly so they will throw out their leadership and stop using race and sex to make political hay. It's really tired and boring. I want them to realize that everyone hates it and they need a new angle to sell their commie BS.

It's like this I guess, if they all want socialism, just come out and sell it man. If people aren't buying into it then just accept it and try again next round. Quit trying to get people to think everyone is racist and that white men are bad and all that. It's so 1990's.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:43 PM
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originally posted by: Xcalibur254
a reply to: Gazrok

My district hasn't elected a Democrat Representative since 1981. Going in to today the Democrat candidate has a 98% chance of winning.

I'm at a new polling place this year so I can't really compare the turnout to previous years but when I got there around 6:45 this morning there was already a long line. Everyone I talked to said they were voting Blue.

Current analysis shows there being an 80% chance that the Dems pick up between 20 and 54 seats in the House, with a median of 36. The last generic ballot numbers I saw have the Dems up 8.7 points. Not only is that enough to take the House, that's enough to beat some of the GOP's gerrymanders and start taking districts that are traditionally Red.

The Dems are definitely doing more than just holding this election.



I am watching this one the most this evening.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:47 PM
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originally posted by: ManFromEurope
Wait, am I reading this right?

The early votings are counted and pulicized BEFORE the actual voting-date?

Aren't there even laws against publishing extrapolated results on voting-day, and now I read that you can get ACTUAL results of early votings, days prior to the voting?

This would not make sense at all, it could be used for all kinds of actions to counter an imminent defeat, and a very much biased media broadcast about the votings themself.


No. It is simply exit polls, which were all wrong last election.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:47 PM
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a reply to: fredrodgers1960

Because democrats are fired up too. Women are fired up.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:49 PM
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a reply to: Vasa Croe

Yes I did. You know how it worked out. Are you asking just to be mean? Surely you haven't forgotten.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 01:53 PM
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a reply to: Gazrok

If I learned anything from 2016 it is not to predict anything.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:15 PM
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originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: Gazrok

The confusion is that these aren't results of voting but of who has voted. We can assume that people who are registered with a party are voting straight ticket but that isn't necessarily true.


Many of the registered Dems I know (including me) are voting red down the ballot. (and this includes those who didn't vote for Trump).


Oh well -- here in AZ I know Reps voting straight blue.


Yeah I bet.




posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:20 PM
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originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: fredrodgers1960

Because democrats are fired up too. Women are fired up.


Women were also fired up in 2016. They mostly voted for Trump. I doubt losing the midterms, or the next election, will open your eyes to how ridiculous the liberal policies are.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:21 PM
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a reply to: Sillyolme

Despite the way the media presented it, the polls were actually fairly close in 2016. All it took for Trump to upset the expected outcome was Hillary underperforming with white working class voters from the Midwest/Rust Belt. That small error was enough to give Trump a few states he wasn't expected to pick up and the victory.

This year is a bit more clear cut. If the Dems don't make significant gains in the House or the Republicans don't retain control of the Senate it means there has been a systematic polling error. In other words a demographic has been significantly over/underpolled across the board. This is an extremely rare occurrence.

That's not to say it can't happen. For example, in this election cycle predictions for youth turnout seems to run the gamut. Youth turnout during midterm elections is notoriously low and many polls confirm that will hold this year. That said, there are studies out there that suggest the youth turnout could be as high as 40%.

This is a demographic that is fairly hard to poll. A lot of polls are still done via phone and most youths rely on texting/don't answer unknown numbers. So it very well could be the case that the youth vote has been significantly underpolled across the board. That's the kind of systematic polling error that could see the Dems beat expectations and take the House and Senate.

Personally, I don't see that happening. So I think a person can be fairly confident in predicting the Dems will take the House while the Republicans will retain the Senate. These outcomes are much more clear cut than the polls we were seeing in 2016.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:21 PM
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originally posted by: Fools

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: Gazrok

The confusion is that these aren't results of voting but of who has voted. We can assume that people who are registered with a party are voting straight ticket but that isn't necessarily true.


Many of the registered Dems I know (including me) are voting red down the ballot. (and this includes those who didn't vote for Trump).


Oh well -- here in AZ I know Reps voting straight blue.


Oh yeah, well I know dogs and cats that are voting for the mice...


Such brilliance. . . .



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:21 PM
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originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: Vasa Croe

Yes I did. You know how it worked out. Are you asking just to be mean? Surely you haven't forgotten.


Nope...just pointing out that standing in line doesnt equate to the outcome you associated with having a long line.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:23 PM
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originally posted by: LSU2018

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: Gazrok

The confusion is that these aren't results of voting but of who has voted. We can assume that people who are registered with a party are voting straight ticket but that isn't necessarily true.


Many of the registered Dems I know (including me) are voting red down the ballot. (and this includes those who didn't vote for Trump).


Oh well -- here in AZ I know Reps voting straight blue.


Yeah I bet.



I've lived here for 30 years.

Know a lot of people.


(post by Fools removed for a manners violation)

posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:25 PM
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originally posted by: Vasa Croe

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: Vasa Croe

Yes I did. You know how it worked out. Are you asking just to be mean? Surely you haven't forgotten.


Nope...just pointing out that standing in line doesnt equate to the outcome you associated with having a long line.


Exactly, my observation really doesn't matter on where I live because its a tiny little speck in the sea of voting today. I was just surprised there were so many out for a midterm election. And I am sure the same was repeated in many leftwing areas due to the hype of this particular election.

Trump good or bad has definitely gotten people out to vote - that is for sure.
edit on 6-11-2018 by Fools because: but



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:29 PM
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No. It is simply exit polls, which were all wrong last election.


Not exit polls.

These results are based on returned BALLOTS (not votes) by registered party.

So, it doesn't take into account ballots returned by Independent voters, nor does it take into account that just because a voter is REGISTERED as a given party, it doesn't mean they voted the party line on the ballot. (Example, I'm a registered Dem, but my ballot is red down the line)....

So, these numbers are guesswork at best. Combine this with the fact that historic precedence has pretty much flown the coop since 2016, and it's going to be a nail-biter night on both sides of the aisle.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 02:46 PM
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Despite the way the media presented it, the polls were actually fairly close in 2016. All it took for Trump to upset the expected outcome was Hillary underperforming with white working class voters from the Midwest/Rust Belt. That small error was enough to give Trump a few states he wasn't expected to pick up and the victory.


What were you watching? She was up nationally by 4 points. Oddly, there were only TWO polls that had it right pretty much throughout. So basically, the majority of the polls had it at a tie, with a slight edge for Hillary. I will admit though, it's odd that the media tried to play this up as a Hillary blowout. Going strictly by the polls, even that was not going to happen, so it's an odd position for them to take.

Of course, it backfired, spectacularly. When Trump started to win nearly every battle state that was already counted in the Hillary column, it was clear the polls were completely wrong. However, I will concede they were fairly right with the popular vote overall, but it's the state by state where they kind of screwed the pooch.


This year is a bit more clear cut. If the Dems don't make significant gains in the House or the Republicans don't retain control of the Senate it means there has been a systematic polling error. In other words a demographic has been significantly over/underpolled across the board. This is an extremely rare occurrence


No it isn't. Trump voters are still made to feel ostracized, so aren't likely to respond to pollsters at all, (especially if in mixed company), or they'll just continue telling them to piss off. That is your systematic polling error. Many more are simply not saying jack, just nodding along while folks spout off about feelings, and migrants, and Kavannaugh, etc. and just silently going to the polling place and voting red.
edit on 6-11-2018 by Gazrok because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 03:03 PM
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a reply to: Gazrok

We'll see. Just based off Trump's approval rating we should expect to see the Dems pick up around 37 seats. Which is exactly what the polls are suggesting as well.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 03:09 PM
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a reply to: Xcalibur254

Just to add an update on this post:

Just saw some numbers on projected voter turnout. My district is projected to have one of the highest turnouts in the country. So that's kind of cool.



posted on Nov, 6 2018 @ 03:21 PM
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We'll see. Just based off Trump's approval rating we should expect to see the Dems pick up around 37 seats. Which is exactly what the polls are suggesting as well.


Approval Rating = Polls
Polls = Hot Garbage

As you said though, we'll see.

Personally, I'm still puzzled by voters who desire gridlock over an improved economy, and who want to see a Dem victory make the stock market dive...but okie dokie....




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