posted on Feb, 24 2005 @ 08:35 PM
Well folks, another month, time for another update..
Large potions of the ITCZ and the western portion of the Caribbean Sea are running 1-2 degrees (c) above historical norms. Sports of the Gulf of
Mexico are as high as 3c above average. However, a large part of the Eastern Carribean is 1-2c below normal as well as the waters off Bermuda.
What all this means: *Techincally* the waters between Africa and the Western Caribbean are now warm enough to support the formation of tropical
cyclones. Granted just barely so at this time, but it is a sign of a possibly early hurricane season.
Additionally the El Nino like warming in the Pacific continue to track *northward*
which is very unusual. However, if it stays up there for
the hurricane season there will be little to no upper-level shear on hurricanes in the Atlantic this year, meaning more big storms.