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Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don't do polls....
I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew---very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican.
But then you need to compare the current numbers to something. The rule of thumb is you never compare a mid-term with a presidential election because the turnout for the latter is supposed to be so much higher.
Guess what I did?
I compared it anyway, just out of intuition.
And this was exactly how I knew Trump would win very early in the 2016 election.
The VOTES were talking.
Rush limbaugh for what its worth is also saying we now have a shot at the house as well www.foxnews.com...
With continually diminishing white support, Democrats must increasingly count on massive minority turnout and bloc voting -- especially among African-American voters, who make up about 12 percent of electorate. Roughly a third of Asians and Latinos vote Republican, and voter turnout among these groups generally isn't as strong as it is among whites and African-Americans. But why is the supposedly odious Trump having any success in undermining the traditional marriage between African-Americans and Democrats? The most recent jobs report revealed that the unemployment rate for African-American teenagers fell to 19.3 percent, the lowest figure on record. That number stands in marked contrast to the 2010 rate of 48.9 percent under the Obama administration. Overall black unemployment is currently at 5.9 percent, which is close to a record low. Under Trump, the economy is growing at nearly 4 percent per year. The robust growth coincides with Trump's effort to curb illegal immigration and imported labor. The net result has been to empower minority job applicants in ways not seen in nearly half a century. Trump's implicit message is that every American worker is now crucial in maintaining the red-hot economy. In a job-short economy, laborers suddenly have a lot of leverage over their employers. And wages are rising. Trump's nationalist message adds to this sense of empowerment, especially when he campaigns on putting Americans first in his economic decision-making. A former entertainer, Trump is courting African-American celebrities such as rapper Kayne West and football legend Jim Brown. Activist Candace Owens and her Turning Point USA organization are trying to convince black voters that being politically independent forces both parties to compete for the African-American vote. Ironically, Trump is reaching out to the African-American community to a much greater degree than progressives are reaching out to the estranged white working class.
originally posted by: neo96
a reply to: RalagaNarHallas
I'm not holding my breathe.
Between voter fraud, and people aren't even going to vote.
Read those articles.
I'd like to keep the House and Senate as they are.
If a red wave materializes.
If not at least keeping the Senate.
It strikes me that one reason for the abnormally high Republican turnout in absentee voting could easily be attributed to another issue: violence over political discourse. I know if I were not in a solidly conservative district, I would be concerned about going to the polls.
as long as heller in NV does well
Then again........if the Dems take both the House and the Senate, this could be then next to last truly "free and fair" election.
It's a long thread that is available here: threadreaderapp.com...