China's Path Forward for Human Spaceflight

The Chinese are preparing to test the first prototype of their new spacecraft, a capsule similar to the American Orion or the someday-gonna-happen Russian Federistya. Their intent is to launch the prototype into space next year and do what we did with the Orion to test reentry capabilities, etc. It will not be equipped with life support, etc, but will probably have mass simulators of the same. The test will be on the Long March 5B rocket, the same one that is planned to loft the new Chinese Space Station.

The new capsule will be 20 tons for the manned version vs 7.8 ton Shenzhou. The new capsule will be able to carry between four and six taikonauts and is intended to be reused. Like the Orion, it is also intended to be used past Earth orbit.

If everything goes according to plan with the first test, the Long March 5B will starting placing the modules for the new space station in orbit in 2020. However, there have been reports there are problems with the Long March 5B that have significantly and may still yet delay the launches. What exactly is the problem isn't clear: the Chinese have not been as open about their space program as NASA or ESA. However, when they do say something, it tends to be accurate.

The Chinese have invited other countries to participate in their space station. The US cannot due to federal statute. However, it's likely the Russians will do so. How that impacts Russian participation in anything remains to be seen. The Europeans may or may not participate.

The Chinese, once their space station is complete, have been also talking about going to the Moon with manned spacecraft. They have been critical of the US led Gateway Station saying it delays getting to the surface of the Moon. The Chinese have stated they are planning to go from LEO to the Lunar surface in a fashion sorta like what Apollo did, if Apollo had a space station to go to first. The Russians have talked about wanted to participate in a Chinese lunar surface base rather than the Gateway station since the station would be run by the US as an American project with international participation rather than an international project like the International Space Station.

It will be interesting. It feels like a slo-mo space race. The US building up infrastructure (multiple capsules to space, Orion, the gateway station, the lunar lander(s), mars ship, etc) and the Chinese following suit. However, while the race to the Moon was a sprint, this feels like a marathon. One that will keep going rather than peter out.

spacenews.com...
spacenews.com...
arstechnica.com...
jalopnik.com...
www.parabolicarc.com...

Flag for the thread and good updates. I still wonder how they will deal with the moon dust and its destructive effects. Eventually we will all have to work together to explore and occupy the moon before moving on to the outer planets. The real problems will be medical and they must be dealt with before we go. My best,

a reply to: anzha

The Chinese are preparing to test the first prototype of their new spacecraft, a capsule similar to the American Orion

Probably a real knock off of the Orion, gleamed through Corporate Espionage, having said that. I'm all for Human space exploration by any country or Company.

They have been critical of the US led Gateway Station saying it delays getting to the surface of the Moon

Whats they hurry? They'll get there soon enough, The US is no big hurry, It's already been there a few times. Better safe than sorry. Remember, Chinas moon rover conked out after only a few days, Meanwhile, the US landed a Car sized rover on Mars and it's been going strong for years. I think in this regards the US may know a few things on this topic that China and Russia would be wise to heed. IMHO of course

a reply to: SLAYER69

Probably a real knock off of the Orion, gleamed through Corporate Espionage, having said that. I'm all for Human space exploration by any country or Company.

It's not. The Orion has a rather different shape. It's also not like the Russian "Federation" capsule either. We have been educating them in our universities for over 40 years now. I am sure some of them are more than bright enough to figure out at least 1960s tech: the Apollo capsules were originally planned to be reused.

India will be placing people in orbit by 2022 and they're not noted for corporate spying like the Chinese.

Remember, Chinas moon rover conked out after only a few days

Actually, that's incorrect. It was mobile for 42 days and lasted for 31 months. The US hasn't put anything on the surface of the Moon since before I was born.

NASA wants the Gateway because it can use the new space station to land on the Moon *AND* build its Mars transit spacecraft while getting experience in deep(er) space. NASA wants the flexibility. China wants to, for now, go to the Moon with people. China isn't looking to do Martian landings until the late 2030s while NASA is looking at the early 2030s.

This is a race of tortoises with different routes to the goals. China one way. America another.

originally posted by: anzha
Actually, that's incorrect...... The US hasn't put anything on the surface of the Moon since before I was born.

Mars, I said Mars

When I see how many elevators and escalators kill people in China each year, when I see buildings collapse because the cement is like sand. When I see whole new apartment complexes with 20 building get demolished in one go because of being made so poorly.

I have to honestly wonder if China can honestly pull off space exploration. They'll certainly need to improve over how they do things on terra firma.

If you cannot build a simple house or safe working elevator, how do you build a spaceship?

Keen on any nation doing space travel. But it genuinely concerns me China having a crack at it.

a reply to: anzha

The Chinese communist party can set goals with single minded effectiveness. Where we in the USA speak with many voices. Bush said he wanted us to return to the moon by 2015 and committed something like 8 billion dollars to the program.. However, Obama cancelled the program and sent the ear marked money to do global warming research and to some of his favorite companies that went bankrupt shortly there after..

Regardless of some of our private companies releasing press articles on future plans for the moon... The rocket that Boeing is making for NASA just got hammered by an audit for being over cost and behind schedule with still has no delivery date.. Where have we heard that before when defense contractors are discussed ?

The Saturn 5 never blew up/killed people and supposedly got us to the moon with no problems.. Yet .... They can not reverse engineer the Saturn 5 with weight and tech improvements even though there are a few Sat 5s on static display ? No doubt all the engineering drawings for the Saturn 5 have been lost like several other things NASA is supposed to hold and keep.

So back to China... If they say they are going they probably will unless their is a regime change or their economy collapses...

China does make crap when they think they can get away with it ... stupid foreigners.. But I doubt there will be cheap crap in their space endeavors.

I had a friend who was doing business in China.. He had a complaint about a product his company was planning on buying. He went to a beautiful factory where he had a meeting with the big boss.. The product in question and the part there in was made by an outside contractor; the nice factory only assembled the finished products. The head guy of the sub contracting business was called into the nice building and was physically beaten.. Isn't communism wonderful especially when face and money is involved.. Needless to say a new sub was found..

a reply to: AtomicKangaroo
I don´t think you can compare civil companies with military / space. Although they too contract civil supply, they choose and validate their partners and the process tougher.

That´s not to say accidents can´t happen or mistakes made.

a reply to: 727Sky

Bush said he wanted us to return to the moon by 2015 and committed something like 8 billion dollars to the program.. However, Obama cancelled the program and sent the ear marked money to do global warming research and to some of his favorite companies that went bankrupt shortly there after..

This is very wrong.

First off, Bush stated 2018.

Secondly, $8B is a drop in the bucket necessary to get us to the Moon. The cost of the Apollo Program was approximately $120B in modern day money.

Thirdly, Bush didn't allocate nearly enough money for what he stated:

en.wikipedia.org...

And you are forgetting Congress, not the President, has the final say on the budget. Congress clearly didn't want to spend the money. Also remember, until 2011, the Shuttle program was still running. That ate a lot of money. And before you pounce on Obama for its cancellation, that was decided back in 2004 after the the Columbia accident.

The budget to get us to the Moon by 2018 never existed. Not under Bush. Not under Obama. Not under Trump.

There MIGHT be enough of a budget to get us there by 2028. MIGHT.

a reply to: 727Sky

The Saturn 5 never blew up/killed people and supposedly got us to the moon with no problems.. Yet .... They can not reverse engineer the Saturn 5 with weight and tech improvements even though there are a few Sat 5s on static display ? No doubt all the engineering drawings for the Saturn 5 have been lost like several other things NASA is supposed to hold and keep.

Key to the SATURN V was the 1st stage powered by the 5 F-1 rockets, largest single rocket engine built

Each f-1 was custom built by hand by highly skilled engineers and craftsmen. While have the blueprints have lost
the art necessary to build them

Recently interest in the F-1 has been revived in a redesigned version know as F-1B, a simpler updated design
which dramatically reduces number of parts and using modern manufacturing process to built the engines

Also increases thrust by 15% to 1.8 million pounds vs 1.55 million of Apollo era

originally posted by: anzha
a reply to: 727Sky

Bush said he wanted us to return to the moon by 2015 and committed something like 8 billion dollars to the program.. However, Obama cancelled the program and sent the ear marked money to do global warming research and to some of his favorite companies that went bankrupt shortly there after..

This is very wrong.

First off, Bush stated 2018.

Secondly, $8B is a drop in the bucket necessary to get us to the Moon. The cost of the Apollo Program was approximately $120B in modern day money.

Thirdly, Bush didn't allocate nearly enough money for what he stated:

en.wikipedia.org...

And you are forgetting Congress, not the President, has the final say on the budget. Congress clearly didn't want to spend the money. Also remember, until 2011, the Shuttle program was still running. That ate a lot of money. And before you pounce on Obama for its cancellation, that was decided back in 2004 after the the Columbia accident.

The budget to get us to the Moon by 2018 never existed. Not under Bush. Not under Obama. Not under Trump.

There MIGHT be enough of a budget to get us there by 2028. MIGHT.

I do not believe my ears are completely gone ...by his own words back to the moon 2015 @ the 4:30 mark...youtu.be...


Bush's Constellation program dreams was defunded under the Obama administration... youtu.be...


Green energy..... anyone remember Solyndra and the half a billion tax payer (535 million) dollars that was invested one year before they went bust or the the scandal that followed. I guess not... Solyndra was only one of the 4 that went bust after big tax payer bucks were invested and probably the kick backs that came after... Otherwise carry on..

Oh there was 90 billion spent on the green energy scam and the bankrupt companies..Maybe scam is to harsh but only idiots were unaware of China and their low cost of manufacturing . youtu.be...

originally posted by: 727Sky
The Saturn 5 never blew up/killed people and supposedly got us to the moon with no problems.. Yet .... They can not reverse engineer the Saturn 5 with weight and tech improvements even though there are a few Sat 5s on static display ? No doubt all the engineering drawings for the Saturn 5 have been lost like several other things NASA is supposed to hold and keep.

NASA didn't build the Saturn V, several private companies built the various components in it. The blueprints are still around, but good luck finding the machinery, manpower and money to do what you suggest.

If the comments above show anything, it's how much US politics have hamstrung America's space programme. China doesn't have to satisfy tax paying citizens or keep its big campaign contributors hsppy.