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The Kavanaugh Effect

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posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 04:47 PM
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In a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, Republicans had closed a 10-point enthusiasm deficit with Democrats in July, which is down to just 2 points now. In July, 78% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans said the November elections were "very important." Now, 80% of Democrats say the same while 78% of Republicans do too.

That same poll shows that the Democratic edge on the generic ballot question -- if the election were held today would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district -- has been cut in half (from 12 points to 6) between mid-September and now. Now, this poll was conducted entirely in one night, so it may not be completely representative of public opinion.

But it's not the only one showing a surge of GOP excitement. A new Quinnipiac poll released earlier this week showed that a 14-point lead Democrats had in the generic ballot in mid-September is now down to 7 points.

"The numbers suggest the big blue wave may have lost some of its momentum as House races tighten," concluded assistant director of the Q poll Tim Malloy.
It's not just public polling either. Glen Bolger, one of the very best Republican pollsters, tweeted this last week:

"Seeing a significant jump in GOP voter interest in the elections this week. The Dem intensity advantage is melting away. Two things:
1. I figure it has to be Kavanaugh effect.
2. Remains to be seen if it lasts.

www-m.cnn.com...
edit on 4-10-2018 by avgguy because: (no reason given)




posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 04:50 PM
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a reply to: avgguy

Most polls tend to slant Democrat when compared to reality. So good news.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 04:58 PM
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Interesting, some polls are accurate and some arent. Anyone have a percentage of Successul percentages by these pollsters?



Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist polls, conducted July 19 - 22 and Oct. 1. The July poll of registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The October poll of registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:06 PM
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a reply to: Butterfinger

There is. The one that predicted Trump winning is actually the only truly accurate one. I can't remember it's name offhand.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:09 PM
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Now figure in the Independent vote.

Ya know those people disgusted with both sides.

Cnn is calling gang rape and the snip done to BK 'Just politics'.

Democratic strategists are telling their own what they've done is more than likely going to backfire.

The midterm was the lefts to lose, and GOD WILLING. They do, and deservedly so.


edit on 4-10-2018 by neo96 because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:10 PM
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Have you listened to NPR lately ? Left Progressive Socialist that wears quite thin in a matter of minutes.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:12 PM
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Voter enthusiasm/anger is finally up for the Republicans and we have the Democrats to thank. Their entire strategy on Kavanaugh was based on gossip.

Baseless gossip tends to Pi$$ people off with the exception of the gossipers .



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:28 PM
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The silent majority is clearing their throats in this country. I expect November will not be the wave the media is begging for under the guise of "predicting."



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:31 PM
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a reply to: neo96


Now figure in the Independent vote.

That's my personal #metoo. I don't vote for candidates, and I've been vocal about that in the past and caught hell from both sides about it.

This time?

Voting a straight (R) ticket. The false rape allegations pushed me to it. Myself and other men that have faced a jury of our peers over a sexual allegation can tell you, it's not a joke. It's not something to be politicized. It's not something to be weaponized.

Democrats did exactly that, and now it's personal.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:31 PM
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a reply to: avgguy

The Republican Of The Year Will Be A Democrat Because They Were Able To "Unite This Party"


www.realclearpolitics.com... l

"The Republican of the year will be a Democrat, not a Republican. You've been able to do something, my friends on the other side, I could never do: unite this party,"



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:39 PM
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originally posted by: Plotus
Have you listened to NPR lately ? Left Progressive Socialist that wears quite thin in a matter of minutes.


Gawd, I quit listening to NPR because the Kochs started pulling them too far right!



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:40 PM
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There is no blue wave. There was never, and there will never be a blue wave. The whole thing was motivational propaganda that has produced zero effectual results.

If anything, there is a long, desolate blue drought coming. They have absolutely no clue about the hordes of their own they've totally alienated, and who have now abandoned them.

The Democrat party is ripe for infiltration.
edit on 10/4/18 by NthOther because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:42 PM
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The unhinged factor will also be the very reason Trump is reelected.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 05:50 PM
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originally posted by: whargoul

originally posted by: Plotus
Have you listened to NPR lately ? Left Progressive Socialist that wears quite thin in a matter of minutes.


Gawd, I quit listening to NPR because the Kochs started pulling them too far right!

That has to be sarcasm, right? I've never heard anyone describe NPR as too far right. Gave me a laugh whether you meant it sarcastically or not.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 06:03 PM
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Warning: Purely a personal view.

My husband, democrat, did not vote for Hillary in 2016 since he was so sure she would 'have it in the bag'! He has never voted in mid term elections but this year, Michigan has a proposition to make marijuana recreational. He intends on voting.

Unfortunately, for the democrats, since I forced the live streaming hearings of Kavanaugh on him. He became outraged at the democrats and realized that he liked Republicans. Then, seeing the news medias spin afterwards, completely cemented him into stating that he is never going to vote for a democrat ever again!

Now, honestly, I have a slight concern. I have begun to realize that just picking someone other than a democrat is crazy. So many that I have spoken with are clueless to who is running and what they actually represent!

I just hope more Americans who are awakening, actually do use due diligence in finding out who they are voting for. Party affiliations and/or independents means diddly squat if you really don't agree with the individual's.

Going to keep working on educating my husband and family. I was concerned the state bringing in such a proposition into midterms would draw more liberals...but amazingly, I have come across many republicans who have family members making use of medical marijuana laws here in Michigan and they have done complete 180s on how they felt about the issue a few years ago! They actually are seeing it is safer than alcohol and more profitable to boot.

Myself...I usually go with more independents locally, but have to admit that this midterm scares me. I am forced to realize that these midterms count and a vote for independent can sway an election from D vs R due to numbers. It is really frustrating having a recognizable 2 party system! I feel stuck!



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 06:04 PM
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While digging up dirt, the Dems dug themselves a grave.

LOL !





posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 06:15 PM
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originally posted by: NthOther
There is no blue wave. There was never, and there will never be a blue wave. The whole thing was motivational propaganda that has produced zero effectual results.

If anything, there is a long, desolate blue drought coming. They have absolutely no clue about the hordes of their own they've totally alienated, and who have now abandoned them.

The Democrat party is ripe for infiltration.


They still haven't figured out that it was Obama voters in the Rust Belt that pretty much got Trump elected.

If you cant figure that out, you arent smart.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 06:24 PM
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Of course the Dems are arguing "but our enthusiasm went up too!"

I don't think that's gonna save them. Everyone that this energized on the left was already energized. It's only taking people who were already going to vote because they hate Trump and firing them up more. That's useless. They can't vote twice. Well, we are talking about Democrats here.

On the other hand, this is firing up people on the right who weren't inclined to vote in the midterms. But they are now.



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 06:35 PM
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a reply to: infolurker

aww they took the link down and cant find it now

www.realclearpolitics.com... l NM found it
edit on 4-10-2018 by RalagaNarHallas because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 4 2018 @ 06:39 PM
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Combine this with the DNC lawyer (Clinton) lackey meeting with the FBI.

Which started the whole Russia snip.

The midterms should be a GD red tsunmai the likes the country has never seen.




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