It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Global M8-MSc Intermediate-Term Predictions The list of the regions where predictions are being made together with the magnitude range of the earthquakes we aim to predict. In the experiment we aim at prediction of magnitude 8 and above earthquakes in 262 circles of investigation, CI’s, each of 667-km radius. Their locations, i.e. coordinates of their centers, are listed in Table 1. The CI’s are set along seismic belts Figure 1 with a near-uniform step and cover all the areas on the Earth where the M8 algorithm could run in its original version that requires annual rate of activity of 16 or more mainshocks Figure 2a. We will also consider predictions of magnitude 7.5 and above earthquakes in 180 CI’s, each of 427-km radius. Their locations, i.e. coordinates of their centers, are listed in Table 2. As in case of magnitude 8, the CI’s are set along seismic belts Figure 1 and cover all the areas on the Earth where the original version of M8 algorithm could run to predict magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes Figure 2b. Note: This is an extension of the Test of M8 in Circum Pacific (Healy et al., 1992): all the parameters of the algorithms including the locations of CI’s remain the same as they were set in 1990. The Mw magnitudes not reported in the NEIC Hypocenters Data Base before 1993 are not considered. The Test of M8 extended to the Alpine-Hymalayan seismic belt. Furthermore, we now aim at prediction of both M7.5+ and M8.0+ earthquakes and include additional analysis of each alarm by the MSc algorithm.
Italian Seismologists Convicted Of Manslaughter
4:32 DOWNLOAD TRANSCRIPT October 23, 20123:00 PM ET Heard on All Things Considered Melissa Block talks with Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center. He was tapped by the Italian government to investigate the events surrounding the tragic 2009 earthquake in the city of L'Aquila, which left more than 300 people dead. The Italian government convicted seven prominent earthquake experts of manslaughter on Monday for not adequately warning the public about the quake ahead of time. The head of Italy's disaster body has resigned in protest against the prison sentences.
originally posted by: DigginFoTroof
If you are into earthquakes there is something else you might want to look into. Some time ago, there was a big earthquake in Tehran and I remember looking at the global map of earthquakes and there was a VERY odd trend of quakes that were all 6km deep, and they were fairly big. There were thousands of them, i'd say maybe 95% of the quakes. It seemed that they were artificial IMO, especially if they were all at the same depth.
originally posted by: SwissMarked
Yes it can be done... and you answered your own question as to why it isn’t anymore...
This is “fake science” now and “global warming” is still “real”... go figure... 🤨
It depends on how picky you are about the parameters for the predictions, to determine whether the predictions are accurate or not. Here are some predictions which are true and probably always will be:
originally posted by: Groot
Many years ago, I came across this website. Screenshot provided , link below with many other links.
I know, very technical. But any imput would be helpful.
So yes you can predict them if your predictions are general enough. My predictions will come true, but aren't very useful because they are too general.
Yes, some people say they can predict earthquakes, but here are the reasons why their statements are false:
They are not based on scientific evidence, and earthquakes are part of a scientific process. For example, earthquakes have nothing to do with clouds, bodily aches and pains, or slugs.
They do not define all 3 of the elements required for a prediction.
Their predictions are so general that there will always be an earthquake that fits; such as, (a) There will be a M4 earthquake somewhere in the U.S. in the next 30 days. (b) There will be a M2 earthquake on the west coast of the U.S. today.
If an earthquake happens to occur that remotely fits their prediction, they claim success even though 1-3 of the predicted elements is wildly different than what occurred, therefore a failed prediction.