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The next recession & the state you live in

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posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 03:46 PM
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originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: amazing

Florida did terrible in the last recession due to the housing bubble.


Interesting all of these interlocking pieces. Can you have a recession without a housing bubble? I mean many sources will say "initial subprime mortgage crisis...caused the following recession. Yet it was also a global recession that didn't happen to involve a housing crisis in many countries.
edit on 17-9-2018 by amazing because: (no reason given)




posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 03:47 PM
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a reply to: amazing

You Know , I Love South Jersey , Lived Here My Whole Life , but I see what is Happening here . Regular Civil War for Decades , North Vs South . Problem Is , The Liberal LEFTIST North Wins Here Too . Socialism does not Put Food on the Table , NEVER WILL..........(
edit on 17-9-2018 by Zanti Misfit because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 03:47 PM
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originally posted by: dothedew
Oh, we are already starting to feel the recession in Michigan, however, it's more of a housing bubble that is about to pop than anything else.

Developers are destroying the market, bit by bit, as effectively as possible and all in the name of greed...... So during our upcoming market crash, do everyone a favor: if you know a landlord or property developer, tell them politely to go screw themselves.

No homes are being built for under 200k+. No, the current fad is to buy up affordable property and transform it into over-regulated apartments or Condos (apartments that you buy for more than the cost of a house, yet easier to finance). Nearly every home that is priced under 150k is being bought by developers and flipped (usually not even remodeled) for over 200k, which drives the market up artificially. In fact, they are buying and flipping so many, nobody can afford them...... So they just sit there with a hefty price tag on them. Other properties that don't get flipped, get rented; now, there are people paying 1000+ per month for a rental (that the landlord doesn't normally care about and lets rot until it's no longer livable, at which point they sell for artificially inflated prices based on all the "hard work" they did to turn it into a rental property.)

Don't even get me started on the affordable land that is getting bought up to have Subdivisions built at 850k per home (that again, sit vacant for months, if not years.)

Next, we have mortgage companies that see this about to happen, so they are being aggressively smart - they know that a home can be saved by filing a chapter 13 Bankruptcy......... They also know that you must be able to AFFORD the bankruptcy in order to pay off the arrears. Now, mortgage companies are letting people go 8-12 months (often times more) delinquent on their mortgages before proceeding with foreclosure - this is almost a guarantee that the homeowner can not afford to pay back what's owed; then BOOM - home gets auctioned, bank writes off default amount on the loan, gets reimbursed through tax deductions as an S-Corp, and they don't lose a penny......... Especially if the bank buys the home back, in which case not only do they write it off as a loss, but they also resell the home and make even more money off of it!

So yes, BIG recession is about to hit, I'm guessing by Spring (You can take that to the bank, no pun intended). Housing market dries up, investors lose tons of money, tons of people lose homes, loss of income follows (if they have to move away from work, also hard to work 40 hours a week living in a van down by the river), market crashes, interest rates skyrocket, nobody can afford anything...... It's going to be great.

I chose to close on a home at the perfect time! LOL


There aren't any affordable houses because government has made building affordable houses unaffordable for developers. The cost of land, environmental, permitting, zoning, etc has made it more profitable to focus on higher end housing.



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 03:52 PM
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a reply to: Edumakated

" There aren't any affordable houses because government has made building affordable houses unaffordable for developers. The cost of land, environmental, permitting, zoning, etc has made it more profitable to focus on higher end housing. "


The President is For Deregulation in the Housing Market , but Both the Dems And Some Reps . in Some States are Fighting Tooth and Nail Against Him ........ WTF is Wrong with these Asshats ? It Cannot Only be the Fault of Greed , or Is it ?



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 03:53 PM
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a reply to: dothedew

It is happening in my area too. I live in a somewhat high cost, but very desirable area that is growing.
There was a junky old house that was just flipped, sold in days for 275K.
I just shake my head. In reality, that house should be around 100K max and the land around 20K, so total 120K, but everything is artificially inflated here right now.



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 03:55 PM
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originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
a reply to: Edumakated

" There aren't any affordable houses because government has made building affordable houses unaffordable for developers. The cost of land, environmental, permitting, zoning, etc has made it more profitable to focus on higher end housing. "


The President is For Deregulation in the Housing Market , but Both the Dems And Some Reps . in Some States are Fighting Tooth and Nail Against Him ........ WTF is Wrong with these Asshats ? It Cannot Only be the Fault of Greed , or Is it ?


Ignorance...



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 04:42 PM
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originally posted by: JAGStorm
www.reuters.com...

... Downsize now while things are good. Make sure your resume, linkedin and everything is up to date now. Take a serious look at your debt and deal with it now. The most valuable thing you have is your health. ...



Good advice, but you forgot what I'd consider the most important thing: Learn to live well within you means today!

:
edit on 2018 9 17 by incoserv because: typo.



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 04:48 PM
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Actually, Florida was a haven during the last recession. They don't have income tax but offer alot more to their citizens if they are poor or homeless. There are huge networks to help those enduring a financial or family crisis due to their huge taxes on tourism. Florida is politically fiscally conservative but that could change. Starting to attract many liberals so I expect the spending to accellerate.



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 04:57 PM
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a reply to: Justso

I lived in Florida for a while and I thought that was one of the most brutal places for homeless people (how they were treated), not so great for the poor either.

I remember they charged homeless to spend a night in a shelter.
They didn't want the homeless to ruin the appeal to tourist so they pushed them into outlying areas including the woods, and seedy parts of the city of Orlando.

Also the public was strongly discouraged to feed the homeless
thinkprogress.org...

abcnews.go.com...
I was there at this time and remember what an outrage it was.
edit on 17-9-2018 by JAGStorm because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 05:06 PM
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a reply to: JAGStorm

I'm in the St Pete area. There are an abundance of free programs for the homeless. I know because I was a volunteer for helping feed and clothe them. Also, coming from south of Atlanta, the attitude towards those impoverished was much kinder.

However, I will admit the government could have taken a kinder approach and helped the civilian effort more. There are great peope here with antiquated government but that is changing.



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 06:40 PM
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a reply to: Edumakated

Well of course; it's easier to get rich people to buy homes with granite countertops, stainless appliances, security sytems, automatic this, top of the line that, etc. Aiming for the upper class will always be more profitable..... Then stick everyone who can only afford a 150k mortgage in an 850 square foot condo that they're paying a mortgage on..... Plus monthly fees.



posted on Sep, 17 2018 @ 09:58 PM
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originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: network dude
what economic indicators point to a recession?


Literally all of them point to a bubble bursting in the next couple years. If that ends up being the sub prime auto bubble, it's going to hit us much, much harder than the housing bubble did.

The housing bubble was brought about by all those sub-prime floating interest loans. When those first years were over the consumer was hit with the prime interest rate . They could no longer afford the payments.
Autos are for the most part fixed interest



posted on Sep, 18 2018 @ 03:28 AM
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I lost 90k on my house. Bought it in 2004 as well.


a reply to: JAGStorm



posted on Sep, 18 2018 @ 06:40 AM
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originally posted by: Gothmog
The housing bubble was brought about by all those sub-prime floating interest loans. When those first years were over the consumer was hit with the prime interest rate . They could no longer afford the payments.
Autos are for the most part fixed interest


But, the default rates are high on auto's, 15% of auto loans to people with a credit score of 620 or less are behind by 3 payments. That covers 31% of the population, 99 million people, so 15 million auto loans. When they lose their vehicles, what do you think is going to happen to businesses who are relying on that labor? 15 million autos represents 9% of the labor force.



posted on Sep, 18 2018 @ 06:43 AM
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I feel like last year was the first great year since 2007. Here's why: We unloaded Obama, the stock market finally performed, 401k finally went up, jobs are created, unemployment is low, TJ Maxx finally has products of quality in the store like the 1990s, inflation and gas prices are the rising problem. Housing is more expensive now the recession is over. I don't think people are able to buy extra homes, extra credit cards like before 2007. Things are good. The working people really adore Trump and his beautiful smart wife. The press, the super rich, and the poor are the unhappy crowd. California is not the place to be anymore. It's always on fire and having water shortages. Too expensive and too crowded. When people say bad things about our President I look at them like they are low quality lazy unintelligent people. Socialism was ruining our country. Things are great celebrate! Go on a vacation.



posted on Sep, 18 2018 @ 07:19 AM
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a reply to: JasonBillung

When you simply print liquid cash and inject it into the system so you have money to pay bills, it has nothing of worth to back it.

Money has no intrinsic value by itself. Each dollar has value only because it represents something of worth.

To go back to the days when we were still bartering our skill and services, I might have chicken and you might have scribe skills. Both are things of real worth, but only to the right people. If you need my chicken, and I don't need your scribe skills, we have no trade. Money was the system that allowed you to represent the value of your skills in a medium of exchange -- seashells to use one of you examples -- in such a way that I could take your shells for my chicken and then go over to the guy with corn and use your shells to get corn.

But without an understood and universal value backing behind and real worth behind that medium of exchange, it's just so much paper (or just shells in the case of our example). What QE did for so long was to go out to the functional equivalent of the beach, pick up a bunch of shells and throw them into the system with out any real worth behind them, no production. It means you need more shells to represent value than before.



posted on Sep, 18 2018 @ 07:33 AM
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a reply to: JAGStorm

This is just one more reason I am glad to live in a very rural part of a southern state.

I remember hearing my grand father talk about the depression of the thirties and some recessions since then. He would always smile and say, "we didn't have much, but you can't starve a farmer."
I will always remember this and keep a small storehouse of seeds and tools ready to be used when the time comes.



posted on Sep, 18 2018 @ 07:42 AM
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a reply to: tinymind

I'm in the same boat as you.
Where I live bartering has been part of life for a long time. We are surrounded by both farmland and water.
In addition most everyone knows how to hunt and forage.
Most people don't realize how much is really edible. Too bad in suburbia they spray everything with poison!
For example, dandelions are one of the healthiest foods you can eat. Even a lot of poisonous foods have edible roots.
People just want to spray it all. sad/stupid



posted on Sep, 18 2018 @ 11:01 AM
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originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: Gothmog
The housing bubble was brought about by all those sub-prime floating interest loans. When those first years were over the consumer was hit with the prime interest rate . They could no longer afford the payments.
Autos are for the most part fixed interest


But, the default rates are high on auto's, 15% of auto loans to people with a credit score of 620 or less are behind by 3 payments. That covers 31% of the population, 99 million people, so 15 million auto loans. When they lose their vehicles, what do you think is going to happen to businesses who are relying on that labor? 15 million autos represents 9% of the labor force.

Buy here , pay here used auto dealers
Just like the folks that fell for that low interest in the sub prime market
Just that in the case of the used car dealer they can turn em back over to the next sucker.



posted on Sep, 18 2018 @ 11:18 AM
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originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: network dude
what economic indicators point to a recession?


Literally all of them point to a bubble bursting in the next couple years. If that ends up being the sub prime auto bubble, it's going to hit us much, much harder than the housing bubble did.

The housing bubble was brought about by all those sub-prime floating interest loans. When those first years were over the consumer was hit with the prime interest rate . They could no longer afford the payments.
Autos are for the most part fixed interest


More specifically, it was brought on by all the consumer fraud that occurred because underwriting guidelines were too loose. People were lying about income and all kinds of other fraud buying investment properties. When the music stopped, these were the first groups to go into foreclosure. Unfortunately, it spread to the other parts of the market as appraised values decreased. People who got sub-prime loans weren't able to refinance out of them nor could the even sell their house due to being underwater.

If anything sub-prime loans actually kept a lot of people out of foreclosure for many years as they could always refinance their way out of trouble. However, once the market started imploding, there were no products left to save them.




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