Taiwan trembling with fear as dragon arms itself

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posted on Mar, 2 2005 @ 01:01 PM
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I completely agree with Pyros,
Even though China has all "that"
, it still isn't going to give them even half a chance, remember they would have to cross through the strait against an alert navy and subs to back them up. Plus they would have to contend with the Taiwanese airforce, most of which would be scrambled and engage the Chinese in their own airspace with the backing of SAM's and the like. Even if the Chinese pull out a completely aerial assault they still don't have a chance in taking even the beach heads. Their only option is to strategically nuke Taiwan and cripple their resources before they launch an invasion, but alas even this path is doomed because then their would be a barrage of tomahawks from bases across S.Korea, Japan, Taiwan and maybe even from the Philippines.
The Chinese Politburo are in quite a dilemma, if they do invade Taiwan they will give the USA to blow them away and if they don't they face ridicule at the home front and a growing voice of dissent against the peoples party. So their present course is their only course- Threaten, Intimidate and Threaten again.


IAF>




posted on Mar, 2 2005 @ 07:54 PM
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I think that alot of commentators overestimate Taiwan's will for independence.

I think that a high % (98%?) of Taiwanese are Han (don't flame me, i swear i read that from somewhere credible like the BBC).

Don't forget that the Nationalists will not be wanting independence. If Chen really pushes for independence and especially if he brings in Japanese help, a civil war within Taiwan is not out of the question. (flamed by China of course)



posted on Mar, 3 2005 @ 05:48 AM
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Originally posted by IAF101
I completely agree with Pyros,
Even though China has all "that"
, it still isn't going to give them even half a chance, remember they would have to cross through the strait against an alert navy and subs to back them up. Plus they would have to contend with the Taiwanese airforce, most of which would be scrambled and engage the Chinese in their own airspace with the backing of SAM's and the like. Even if the Chinese pull out a completely aerial assault they still don't have a chance in taking even the beach heads. Their only option is to strategically nuke Taiwan and cripple their resources before they launch an invasion, but alas even this path is doomed because then their would be a barrage of tomahawks from bases across S.Korea, Japan, Taiwan and maybe even from the Philippines.
The Chinese Politburo are in quite a dilemma, if they do invade Taiwan they will give the USA to blow them away and if they don't they face ridicule at the home front and a growing voice of dissent against the peoples party. So their present course is their only course- Threaten, Intimidate and Threaten again.


IAF>


Why would China have to cross through the strait towards an Alert Navy and Air Force? Would logic not dictate they'd bomb Taiwan's Air Bases, Military Bases and Ships, before they even launched an attack?

You assume that the Chinese Military are stupid - they're not. They would siable Taiwan's ability to defend, as best they could before attacking and America won't attack them. It would cost them more then they could gain.

Look at the whole world, instead of just China and also the domino effect that would happen from them attacking China.

As for China nuking Taiwan, why would they? They want Taiwan's resources, that's the reason they want them. As for a "barrage of tomahawks from bases across S.Korea, Japan, Taiwan and maybe even from the Philippines" that wouldn't happen. S.K. would leave itself open for attack by N.K. and Japan would end up with China retaliating agaisnt them. After all, China's been looking for a reason to attack Japan for years - in my opinion.



posted on Mar, 3 2005 @ 07:39 AM
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Lol i must say some ppl here are so baised !!!

Did i hear some1 say china is in fear of tawian rofl !!!
i assume that person has mistyped ...

Anywayz why would any1 attack a stronghold !!! What makes u think china is gonna charge in their with soldiers ...
Its 21st century for god's sake something called a missile to neutralise their defense !!

Did USA charge into Iraq with soldiers straight away .. i think they bombed it for few days ... get my point ppl !!!



posted on Mar, 3 2005 @ 07:44 AM
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This may sound far-fetched...but I will say it anyways.

I would be willing to bet that in 20-30 years it will be a more likely scenario that the present government in Taiwan will be in power in mainland China, then the communist Chinese in power in Taiwan.

The forces of a free market economy will dictate the future of all Chinese people.



posted on Mar, 3 2005 @ 08:20 AM
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One thing is 4 sure in this world that all countrys chess pieces and there all making there moves and waiting for the first strike. Iraq was a pon.



posted on Mar, 3 2005 @ 01:45 PM
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China's no longer communist, it's a Post Communist Nation. (I'll explain this properly, once I've had a chance and post it in the political forum and link over to it.)



posted on Mar, 3 2005 @ 03:40 PM
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Even with enough vessels (maybe a load of merchant vessels included) A D-day style landing is hard to keep secret nowadays, the preperation would likely not go unnoticed, enough time to call in American backup....

I would think that if the chinese ever feel forced to settle this matter in a forcefull way, they would rather opt for some economic extortion tactic by using many many attacksubs to try block traffic in/out taiwan....Chinese shore based cruise missiles could project a threat to taiwanese vessels including sub destroyers as well.

The Chinese would want to keep their airplanes under their own SAM umbrella as opposed to exposing themselves to fire from taiwanese/american sams/planes.





[edit on 3-3-2005 by Countermeasures]

[edit on 3-3-2005 by Countermeasures]



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 05:57 AM
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Who cares what China is called (Communist, Socialist, Fascist, whatever) their gov't rules over the people and the people have no real say in what the gov't does. the media is entirely state-run and entirely misleading.

As for Taiwan's will for independence, I am just going by what I was told here, but I have spoken with a few U.S. military officers who said they were in college with some guys who are now officers in the Taiwan military and that those guys are incredibly patriotic, professional, and freedom-loving, and DO NOT want anyone like China in there.



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 06:49 AM
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Originally posted by Broadsword20068
Who cares what China is called (Communist, Socialist, Fascist, whatever) their gov't rules over the people and the people have no real say in what the gov't does.


Do you have a say in what the government does?

You elect the government. You have no say in what it does. There is a huge difference.

There is no government in this world which is "governed by the people".



the media is entirely state-run and entirely misleading.


Fox news on the other hand, is extremely unbiased.



As for Taiwan's will for independence, I am just going by what I was told here, but I have spoken with a few U.S. military officers who said they were in college with some guys who are now officers in the Taiwan military and that those guys are incredibly patriotic, professional, and freedom-loving, and DO NOT want anyone like China in there.


Broadsword, do you know anything about China-Taiwan relationships?

As for your military officers assessments, they are natural. Military indoctrination and the demographics who join it makes "it incredibly patriotic, professional".



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 01:17 PM
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Originally posted by Countermeasures
Even with enough vessels (maybe a load of merchant vessels included) A D-day style landing is hard to keep secret nowadays, the preperation would likely not go unnoticed, enough time to call in American backup....

I would think that if the chinese ever feel forced to settle this matter in a forcefull way, they would rather opt for some economic extortion tactic by using many many attacksubs to try block traffic in/out taiwan....Chinese shore based cruise missiles could project a threat to taiwanese vessels including sub destroyers as well.

The Chinese would want to keep their airplanes under their own SAM umbrella as opposed to exposing themselves to fire from taiwanese/american sams/planes.


China would bomb them till they gave in and only base troops there to stop any form of uprising. Also remember Taiwans force is spread over three islands and they only have 50,000soldiers. It would not need to be anything like D-day/on that scale.

As for America getting involved, I'd say on an economic scale not Military. I doubt they'd want a long war, with China that could cause a lot of lost lives in America.


Originally posted by Broadsword20068
Who cares what China is called (Communist, Socialist, Fascist, whatever) their gov't rules over the people and the people have no real say in what the gov't does. the media is entirely state-run and entirely misleading.


So what would matter if it was called a democracy? Either you elect people who lie to you and rule over you or they bi-pass this and save you the time of having a pointless vote.

As for Post-Communism, go look it up. You need to learn about it, before you can comment on it.

As for the Media, when you have people like Murdock controlling a lot of it who is a Republican, it won't be biased at all.



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 05:49 PM
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Originally posted by Odium
Also remember Taiwans force is spread over three islands and they only have 50,000soldiers. It would not need to be anything like D-day/on that scale.


The only thing i would add is that when the remnants of the Ming dynasty tried to defend Taiwan from the Qing dynasty. The Ming put all they forces on the main island but was still beaten.

The Dutch before that when defending against the Ming, spread they forces and was still beaten. They were starved.



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 05:53 PM
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Taiwan has 20,000 people in two bases not on the Island of Taiwan. A few missiles and you could take out 40% of their army. Small island and modern weapons make it easy to destroy and invade, rather then a larger land mass where missile silos, air fields, etc, can be spaced out and take longer to find and hit.

Taiwan isn't a stronghold, it'd be very hard to defend well.



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 06:19 PM
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Originally posted by Odium
Taiwan has 20,000 people in two bases not on the Island of Taiwan. A few missiles and you could take out 40% of their army. Small island and modern weapons make it easy to destroy and invade, rather then a larger land mass where missile silos, air fields, etc, can be spaced out and take longer to find and hit.

Taiwan isn't a stronghold, it'd be very hard to defend well.


Yes, but there is one instance.

The Han defended Taiwan successfully against the French with British weapons during the Qing. This is of course ironic, considering some of the Han that went, went from the Mainland (Fujian) and are now wanting independence. Where then, they were defending China against the French.

History is full of ironies.



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 07:19 PM
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China would never make it, no they would not send ships or subs even close to Taiwan there ships would get sunk if not by taiwan US subs would definitely hunt them down, and yes Taiwan only has 50,000 active soldiers but they also have 1.1 million in reserve and with Taiwan and us satlites No airstrike would successfully be launched against Taiwan and china only has a handfull of 4th generation fighters but they have to fly along ways to reach the island and then refuel to make it back to the mainland which would be good Target practice for taiwanese pilots and dont forget That with 2 US aircraft carriers backing them up with each Aircraft carrier Houseing 80 Fighter and attack aircraft which would equal 160 additional Advanced Fighters to protect Taiwan if chinese fighters even made it to the island, and if chinese tried to send Ships I think the Navy Seals would have a Hay day Blowin stuff up.



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 07:27 PM
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I love it when people can guarantee something like "China will not be able to take on Taiwan".

Of course, they know that for a fact.



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 08:28 PM
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I have commented on Broadswords posts for some time now but I got tired of posting trying to make him stop his biased and un-informed posts. Do what I do, block him.



posted on Mar, 4 2005 @ 11:47 PM
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Originally posted by Odium
China would bomb them till they gave in and only base troops there to stop any form of uprising. Also remember Taiwans force is spread over three islands and they only have 50,000soldiers. It would not need to be anything like D-day/on that scale.


Yeah! and the whole world would watch and let the Chinese bomb a democratic state and kill thousands for some vain ideology!!

It would be a repeat of what happened in the Gulf War, the UN declares that china is the aggressor and a coalition is formed with USA leading it, asks china to withdraw in 24hrs- china refuses => USA + allies unleash a wave of aerial and missile strikes all across China. If china retaliates the USA + allies nuke'em and force china to sign some ridiculous treaty and install a democracy. USA will never engage in a land war in Central Asia- thats and unwritten rule the Pentagon obeys!
No, a war with Taiwan would just jepordise their efforts in becomming a modern economic power like those in the west. So I don't think they would go to war knowing that they would lose everything they've worked for in the last 30 years just to satisfy their pride.


Originally posted by Odium
As for America getting involved, I'd say on an economic scale not Military. I doubt they'd want a long war, with China that could cause a lot of lost lives in America.


Nobody wants war, if taiwan is attacked they will fight back and the can put up good fight, I am sure the PLA is aware of this. As for an economic embargo America economy is quite widely distributed and with a fall of the chinese economy many other nations would benefit greatly [like India,Russia,Brazil,Indonesia etc] , even local business in the US will benefit . Initally the US economy would be hit but later on it would pick up faster as their would be lesser cheap chinese goods for the local companies to contend with. More over the crude prices across teh world would also come down if the chinese industry collapses. The Chinese would be effected drastically because their economy depends mostly on meeting the demands of the US economy and with that gone it would mean economic collapse!
The chinese are aware of these things and know that to acheive their dream of economic prosperity they would have to make scarifices and the international line for the preservation of democracy in Taiwan.


Originally posted by Odium
So what would matter if it was called a democracy? Either you elect people who lie to you and rule over you or they bi-pass this and save you the time of having a pointless vote.


You still haven’t understood the meaning of democracy, its not just about casting your vote and let things unfold as they like. The right to hold the government/elected officials accountable, the knowledge that you will get justice even if the accused is an elected official, the ability to voice your dissent/criticize government policy and give people a new view point to any situation that one may feel as unjust are what you can't do in Post-Communism/ Neo- Communism / Pre- Democracy [call it what you will!] China.



posted on Mar, 5 2005 @ 12:51 AM
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Originally posted by COWlan
I have commented on Broadswords posts for some time now but I got tired of posting trying to make him stop his biased and un-informed posts. Do what I do, block him.


.......


Of course there is no such thing as a gov't run by the people in a large country, but each gov't official can be run out of office (i.e. not re-elected) if they do a poor job. And people's public opinion does matter in a democratic republic, as the officials want to get re-elected. With China's government, that does not happen.

As for American media, of course it is biased. But there are a whole bunch of news agencies that have different ideas and different biases....which they express. In China, there is only one media, controlled by the gov't. Big difference.



posted on Mar, 5 2005 @ 12:58 AM
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Originally posted by IAF101
Yeah! and the whole world would watch and let the Chinese bomb a democratic state and kill thousands for some vain ideology!!

It would be a repeat of what happened in the Gulf War, the UN declares that china is the aggressor and a coalition is formed with USA leading it, asks china to withdraw in 24hrs- china refuses => USA + allies unleash a wave of aerial and missile strikes all across China. If china retaliates the USA + allies nuke'em and force china to sign some ridiculous treaty and install a democracy. USA will never engage in a land war in Central Asia- thats and unwritten rule the Pentagon obeys!
No, a war with Taiwan would just jepordise their efforts in becomming a modern economic power like those in the west. So I don't think they would go to war knowing that they would lose everything they've worked for in the last 30 years just to satisfy their pride.


Ok...Must refrain from obcernities.....Thinking of Skippy, Skippy....Good Skippy.....

Ok....Calmed down....

You have no understanding of China or Taiwan, read some books before posting stupidity.



Nobody wants war, if taiwan is attacked they will fight back and the can put up good fight, I am sure the PLA is aware of this. As for an economic embargo America economy is quite widely distributed and with a fall of the chinese economy many other nations would benefit greatly [like India,Russia,Brazil,Indonesia etc] , even local business in the US will benefit . Initally the US economy would be hit but later on it would pick up faster as their would be lesser cheap chinese goods for the local companies to contend with. More over the crude prices across teh world would also come down if the chinese industry collapses. The Chinese would be effected drastically because their economy depends mostly on meeting the demands of the US economy and with that gone it would mean economic collapse!
The chinese are aware of these things and know that to acheive their dream of economic prosperity they would have to make scarifices and the international line for the preservation of democracy in Taiwan.


Your fundamental error in judgement is equating CSB, TSU with Taiwan. You are deeply mistaken. 98% of Taiwanese are Han, if CSB declares independence, Taiwan would not be 100% behind him. If CSB doesn't declare, they would be no war.

You see, therefore, all your speculation is moot.



You still haven’t understood the meaning of democracy, its not just about casting your vote and let things unfold as they like. The right to hold the government/elected officials accountable, the knowledge that you will get justice even if the accused is an elected official, the ability to voice your dissent/criticize government policy and give people a new view point to any situation that one may feel as unjust are what you can't do in Post-Communism/ Neo- Communism / Pre- Democracy [call it what you will!] China.


Yes, it's always good in theory isn't it.

Tell me something IAF, If China was a democracy now with say....
Communist Party: Hu Jintao
Socialist Party: Jiang Zemin

Would you feel better?





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