The big battle is coming for Idlib, Syria It really is a big deal

a reply to: 727Sky

The Turkish army has sent 15 vehicles, including 6 tanks, carrying weapons and munitions, to the Syrian province of Idlib through the Kfar Lusin border-crossing, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on Saturday.

READ MORE: Militants Brought Chlorine Gas to Idlib to Stage Chemical Attack — Russian MoD

The vehicles reportedly moved towards the Turkish observation point in the Shir Magar area of Shashabo Mountain in the western countryside of Hama and the convoy was then split into two parts, with one leaving at the Shir Magar observation point and the other one heading towards the Ishtabraq observation point.

sputniknews.com...

Terrorists from the Tahrir al-Sham group transported several barrels of chlorine gas to the village of Basankul, in Syria's province of Idlib, to stage a false-flag chemical attack, according to a Saturday statement from the Russian Defense Ministry's Center for Syrian Reconciliation.

“Militants of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham delivered several containers with chlorine in the settlement of Basankul in Idlib province,” head of Russia's Center for Syrian Reconciliation Lt. Gen. Vladimir Savchenko said on Saturday. The center urges leaders of opposition armed groups to refrain from provocations which undermine the political process, he added.

sputniknews.com...
youtu.be...

a reply to: 727Sky
There is sooo much Turkish armor and heavy weapons inside Idlib now it is difficult to quantify. They have also parked them right along the front lines where the Syrian army plans to assault first. Certainly this has caused them to have to rethink their strategy.

So NATO took East Syria for its European and American hegemony, but it seems to me Erdogan plans on taking Idlib for Turkey itself. Well Russia got Crimea, East Ukraine, and Abkhazia and South Ossetia since 2009. I guess we are all just adding land to our empires again. And who said colonialism is dead?

a reply to: 727Sky
here is a map of faction control in the Idlib region. There are a diversity of players with differing allegiances in this last area.

Suriye Gündemi English
‏ @suriyegundemiEN
#Maps Factional Control in Idlib | Suriye Gündemi English en.suriyegundemi.com... … #syria #Idlib

With the creation of the demilitarized zone, the Syrian army attacks are limited go artillery strikes from a distance. Does not seem they have been cleared by Russia to begin the ground op liberation.

Interesting events happening in Syria now.

Turkey and Russia may have come to an agreement to avoid damaging assualt on Idlib:
www.almasdarnews.com...

If this holds true would be a good thing, avoid a lot of bloodshed and damage to infrastructure there. And avoid drawing some type of military response from the west. There is no need to rush into Idlib at this time, Mercs have been boxed in with only opening pointing north back to Turkey.



Find this very, very interesting:

THe SOHR report said that the rebel group will be evacuated from the Tanf region alongside their family members that are present in the Rukban Refugee Camp. The rebel group will also be allowed to keep their military vehicles and weapons, which is different from most factions that are evacuated. The Quraytayn Martyrs Brigade and their family members will be evacuated through the Syrian government’s territories until they reach the areas of the Aleppo Governorate that are controlled by the Turkish-backed rebels.

www.almasdarnews.com...

Russia and Damascus are allowing a US trained, supported "rebel" group to leave Al Tanaf and be relocated north of Aleppo. And allowed to keep their arms no less... This signals big changes I think. Why would Russia/Syria allow this if something had not changed on the dynamics of this war? RUS/SAA are definetly not in a weak position right now, they do not have to let this go through but they are. So is Al Tanaf days numbered before control is turned back over to SAA? If so, that would mean the West has finally given up on the Qatar pipeline route.


War still has no shortage of dirty tricks to be played:
thesaker.is...

Israel apparently not happy with recent turn of events and trying to draw people back to the precipice of all out war.

1 minute notice to Russia before launching extended assault against Syrian positions. Israel placed their planes behind a Russian EW aircraft and the plane did not have time to leave the area, leading to a friendly fire downing of it by SAA air defenses (S-200). S-400 was activated after Russian plane was shot down. Of the 15 Russian servicemen onboard there are no survivors.

I would expect this to spell the beginning of the end of Israeli air incursions/attacks on Syria. While that tactic is not new, the manner in which Israel used Russians as cover for their attack when they supposedly have deconfliction agreements to prevent this sort of "accident" is a new low for Israel. I would expect further upgrades to Syrian air defenses after this and new rules of engagement coming out which take the gloves off Russian air defenses more. Wondering if layered defense with Morpheus protecting S-300/S-400 is in place. Assuming it is or will be shortly with this latest escalation.

Last,
www.zerohedge.com...

Interesting that Congress (the House) is finally finding their voice on Syria campaign which had zero opposition when Obama involved us in that mess by arming and training a bunch of mercenaries. What is changing? Any relation to FISA DECLAS? Timing a coincidence?

Meet the new McStain: en.wikipedia.org...
The anti-Trump "Republican" and new face of pushing for escalation in Syria.

The Turkish-Russian deal won't be derailed by yesterday evening's events.
Russia's presence in Syria won't be changed. Neither reduced nor escalated.

Unfortunately for the EU-UK this isn't Vietnam, there isn't any surge and there isn't any President Johnson in the Kremlin

a reply to: 727Sky

A new development which will postpone the three week window I originally thought would happen for the big offensive in Idlib.

Turkey and the Russians have decided to establish a buffer zone where both Turkey and Russia will patrol. Maybe that will give them a chance to figure out what to do with the 30,000 plus fighters which were trapped in Idlib when Turkey closed the border ?..youtu.be...

Its a nice video clip of a Su-30SM flying over a drone during a patrol over South Central Idlib province. There were no strikes in the vicinity, so its most probably just a patrol flight. The drone then is likely to belong to Turkey as they are also doing patrol flights in the area.
I made it into a gif just to make it easier to have it up here. Click the gif to see original clip with better resolution and clarity.

monitoring
‏ @warsmonitoring

Su-30SM overflying a drone over Maarrat al-Numan.

a reply to: worldstarcountry
Southfront put out a new analysis on Turkey's Strategy in North Syria. Its 35 minutes but is loaded with lots of information on which groups Turkey backs, which ones are loyal to them, the armaments they have imported into the region and their theorized goals. A good watch to get some background on Turkey's involvement in Syria.

a reply to: worldstarcountry

Thanks for the video, very in depth and worth the time to watch it to understand Turkey's current goals.

Whomever was behind the coup attempt against Erdogan must really be regretting it now. Huge wedge between Turkey and their own "allies" after that and now Turkey is back to focusing on their own version of what to do with the Kurds.

Also, what do you think about this?:

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said early Monday, "A modern S-300 air defense missile system will be supplied to the Syrian Armed Forces within two weeks. It is capable of intercepting air assault weapons at a distance of more than 250 kilometers and hit simultaneously several air targets."

Significantly, Syria's systems will be integrated with Russian systems via the S-300, in order to prevent instances of "blind" firing (or failure to have friend or foe identification capabilities).

Source:
www.zerohedge.c... om/news/2018-09-24/russia-will-supply-advanced-s-300-anti-aircraft-system-syria-cites-downed-plane

Major fallout from recent Israeli strike on Syria which lead to the freindly fire downing of Russian EW aircraft and loss of its crew.

Providing S-300 to Syria was previously Israel redline, but since they crossed Russia's redline I guess it's going to happen now. One thing is 100% true, it's a major escalation there.

There are daily protests going on in various jurisdictions within the Idlib governate for weeks now. Step news has them uploaded daily. I will try to be more diligent in getting them posted on a more frequent basis just to keep the thread fresh and in memory.

On another matter though, HTS was attacked with a car bomb yesterday which I believe said killed one and injured three. I don't really care about those guys so whatever happens happens. They frequently go tit for tat with ISIS so this could simply be more of that.

BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:20 A.M.) – A powerful explosion ripped through the provincial capital of Idlib on Friday, resulting in the death of at least one rebel fighter.

According to rebel activists, a roadside bomb targeted a van that was traveling through 30th Street in Idlib ciity on Friday morning.

The rebel activists said that the vehicle belonged to the security division of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham; it was destroyed during the explosion.

One of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham’s fighters were killed and another four others were badly wounded as a result of this attack.

a reply to: Strate8

In the mean time "U.S. Says Russia, Assad, Turned Idlib Into Terrorist Stronghold !" Which in my opinion is a total lie. There have been terrorist cells all over Syria who have surrendered and been bused out of the combat zone and across the border into Turkey and Jordon only to be rearmed and resupplied before being shipped into Idlib. You have to wonder how many would drop out of the conflict if Iran was not in Syria.?. USA, Israel, and no telling who else since Iran is the designated booger bear of the Mid-East.? The video also includes Iran's secret nuclear reactor works (which they never stopped even after the nuclear deal) according to Israel.

youtu.be...

Zeina Khodr ‏Verified account @ZeinakhodrAljaz
2 members of Turkestan Islamic Party; 2 members of Hayat Tahrir al Sham reportedly killed in ambush by unknown assailants in Jisr al Shughour, Idlib -(killing of members of radical groups ongoing for some time but on rise as of late as deadline to implement Idlib deal approaches )

Unknown assailants . Perhaps the Chinese have already started their covert ground operations??

The summit on the settlement of the situation in Syria for the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany and France may take place in Istanbul in the second half of October, Turkish President Erdogan announced after his visit to Germany. He explained that he provided the German and French parties with the information about the efforts made in cooperation with Russia and Iran, in Syria. Especially in Idlib, where the parties agreed to create a demilitarized zone after the summit in Sochi during 17th of September. According to the Syrian media, the fighters of the Faylaq al-Rahman group left the DMZ in the province of Idlib. Thus, this group became the first among the illegal formations that recognized the Sochi agreement between Russia and Turkey. At the same time, there is information about skirmishes in the west of the province of Aleppo between the factions that support the agreement, and those who oppose it.

More updates about the demilitarized zone.

أفادت وسائل إعلام تركية أن أنقرة طلبت من كافة الفصائل العاملة في الشمال ذاتية مقاتليها وطبيعة الأسلحة التي تمتلكها، يأتي ذلك في وقت بدأت فيه تركيا إحصاءا مدنيا لسكان المحافظة تزامنا مع اقتراب العمل بأولى بنود تفاهم سوتشي الخاصة بالمنطقة منزوعة السلاح .. تقرير: أحمد الحسن
Turkish media reported that Ankara has asked all factions operating in the north the autonomy of their fighters and the nature of the weapons they own, this comes at a time when Turkey began a civilian census of the people of the province coinciding with the work on the first terms of understanding Sochi for the demilitarized zone.

And some recent protests. It seems they do the whole community protests on weekends or on the approach to the weekend. It will be difficult to get this region to rejoin with Syria proper under Assad without a fight based on the sentiment on these weekly, and sometimes daily gatherings against his rule.

نظم نشطاء بلدة كللي في ريف #إدلب مظاهرة مركزية شارك فيها العديد من القرى المجاورة أكدوا خلالها على أستمرار الثورة حتى تحقيق أهدافها . تغطية : ميرنا الحسن
Activists organized the town of Kali in the countryside # Idlib a central demonstration in which participated in several neighboring villages, during which they stressed the continuation of the revolution until the achievement of its objectives.

تحت مسمى هيئة المفاوضات لا تمثلنا خرج أهالي مدينة معرة النعمان بالمشاركة مع قرى وبلدات ريفي #إدلب الجنوبي والشرقي بمظاهرة حاشدة طالبوا فيها بإسقاط هيئة المفاوضات والنظام تغطية : جميل الحسن
Under the name of the negotiations body does not represent us The people of the city of Maarah al-Nu'man went out with the villages and towns of Idlib Southern and Eastern villages in a mass demonstration demanding the overthrow of the negotiations and the regime.

خرجت مظاهرة في مدينة سرمدا شمال إدلب تحت شعار ’’هيئة التفاوض لا تمثلنا‘‘، رفعت خلالها شعارات للتأكيد على استمرار الثورة ومطالبها وأهمها إسقاط نظام الأسد
A demonstration took place in the city of Sarmada, north of Idlib, under the slogan "The Negotiating Body does not represent us", during which slogans were raised to emphasize the continuation of the revolution and its demands,

Hundreds demonstrated in the city of Jericho north of Idlib in a Friday called activists "the negotiating body does not represent us" to emphasize the continuation of the revolution until the achievement of all its objectives and even to overthrow the Assad regime Coverage: Anas al-Triisi

It is good to see lots of children out there being exposed to their civic rights. Perhaps they will be the future of Syrian leadership under a free democratic Syria??
Also, in this Southfront report, it would seem that the more moderate members of HTS has stopped the more radical elements of their group from launching an attack/offensive against Syrian army in an effort to maintain the ceasefire agreement for the demilitarized zone.
Also includes coverage of the SDF offensive against ISIS in the town of Hadij on the river in Deir- ez zor.


As far as the S-300 in Syria goes, the Israelis have stated they are not deterred and will simply switch to using F-35's to take on the Russian air defense systems. That should be some interesting footage to see if they end up taking out some S-300 batteries.

With the October 15th target date approaching for the full implementation of this accord, we will see how restless the more radical elements will become.

1. Three civilians were killed in the village of Kafr Halab in rural West Aleppo, including two children and a young man was shot during the exit of the residents in a demonstration to prevent the storming of the village by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham. 2.Rally today in Kafr Nabl. 3. Friday protest in the town of Kali, Idlib. People demanding change of representatives in negotiation committees. 4.Fursan Iman destroyed with a Fagot a fortified position with 14.5 gun in Latakia Mounts. 5.Demonstration in Bzaa town in Aleppo countryside demanded to overthrow the regime and freedom for detainees. 6.Agreement reached between the Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham and the people of Kafr Aleppo to resolve the dispute in the town.

This news report pretty much covers the same events listed above, but there is video of a drone crash at the two minutes mark. I do not really understand their language and the description did not provide details on that event when translated. Interesting footage nonetheless. Perhaps someone with a better understanding of Arabic could help us translate what is being discussed in regards to the drone crash? It could be a failed militant drone, or perhaps a shot down Turkish drone. I just have no clue without more context.

الموجز الرابع لآخر وأهم الأخبار من قناة الجسر الفضائية ومن أبرز ماجاء فيه : مظاهرات في المناطق المحررة تجدد التمسك بثوابت الثورة ريف إدلب : الجيش الحر يعلن صد هجوم لخلايا تنظيم الدولة في تفتناز الشمال السوري : مقتل 3 مدنيين خلال اقتحام هيئة تحرير الشام بلدة كفر حلب
Summary of the fourth and most important news from Al-Jisr satellite channel and the most prominent of it: Demonstrations in the liberated areas Renewed adherence to the principles of the revolution Reef Idlib: Free army announces repel attack of cells of state organization in Taftnaz North Syria:

The Al-Jisr video channel is another resource for Syria news from local and regional sources. You will have to translate the descriptions though to have a better context of what is happening and being reported.

It is being reported that a handful of factions have joined forces and disavowed the demilitarization agreement and started the day off with shelling Syrian Army forces across the line.

Facti ons of "Al-Qaeda" in Syria declares unity, and rejects the agreement of the region "demilitarized" !! (translated into English for reader convenience)

A group of militant factions announced today the formation of a joint operations room under the name of "Incitement to the Believers" and announced that it adopted the targeting of the "Jorin" camp with heavy artillery and rockets.

In the details, the correspondent of the news agency "Step News" in the province of Hama that the "organization of religious guards," the Front "Ansar al-Din" and "Ansar al-Tawhid" and "Ansar al-Islam", are the main artery of the Joint Operations Room, Factions "of the most" extremist "of the likes, and it is considered the Syrian shield for al-Qaeda.

The Operations Room and the Incitement to the Believers did not publish an official statement, but it published photographs showing large quantities of weapons and ammunition. It commented on "preparing mortars to bomb Nasiriyah army concentrations in Camp Ghorin", without elaborating any further details. The start of military action or new targets towards the locations of the concentration of the regime's forces and militias.

Earlier on Saturday evening, two members of the regime's forces, Mohammed Razzouq and Wael Shaheen, were killed.

Where it was published by the official knowledge, that at 5 pm on Saturday, "your brothers in the operating room (and incite the believers) to bomb barracks and camps of the Nusseiri system in Jorin and the plain of the jungle, dozens of missiles, in response to targeting the villages of our people in rural Hama, Two of his mercenaries. "

According to the agency's correspondent in the province, that the forces of the regime on Sunday, targeting the town of "visit" in the Al-Ghab Plain heavy artillery, without reports of human casualties.

This comes in conjunction with the announcement of the faction "the Liberation of the Sham" through a statement published last night, refusing to give up his weapon, considering it "a safety valve for the revolution of the Levant."

It is noteworthy that these factions recently confirmed their "rejection of the Sochi agreement," after the announcement of the Russian President and his Turkish counterpart for reaching an agreement to establish a (demilitarized) zone separating the regions of the regime and opposition control areas in the provinces of Idlib and Hama.

Let us not forget also that the TIP has also refused to withdraw and have fortified their positions on the front line as well.

EIRUT, LEBANON (3:00 P.M.) – It doesn’t look like the jihadist rebels in northern Latakia are planning on adhering to the new buffer zone agreement, as they were spotted raising new trenches near the Syrian Arab Army’s front-lines.

Based on new footage obtained by the Sputnik News Agency, the jihadist rebels of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) raised new trenches around the key town of Kabbani, which is supposed to be a part of the new buffer zone agreement that was established in Sochi on September 17th.

This move by the Turkestan Islamic Party indicates that they have no intent on withdrawing from the area, despite repeated threats from both the Turkish and Russian forces.

As shown in the footage below, the Syrian Arab Army was monitoring the jihadist forces very closely in the Kurdish Mountains:

A source from the Syrian Arab Army told Al-Masdar shortly after the Sochi agreement that their troops were still planning on launching the Latakia offensive because they do not believe TIP and their allies from Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham would adhere to any ceasefire.

Well on the ground news interviews a rebel group that launched a raid that killed 18 Syrian troops and even seven Russians! Damn thats bold. Russia is surely pissed I am certain.

A rebel special forces unit, launched a daring raid deep into regime territory, during which they managed to kill 18 Syrian and 7 Russian army personnel, including high ranking officers of the Russian Armed Forces. OGN interviewed Abu Salman Belarusi, an instructor of Malhama Tactical, one of the organizers of the night raid.

a reply to: worldstarcountry

I do not know all the ins and outs of the geopolitical B.S. but me thinks it is time to take the kid gloves off...... Russia and Syria to do a sand sweep in Idlib and for once clean out the festering wound.

All the opposing PTB are doing is using Idlib as a close in rearm refit (R&R) station for future actions.

a reply to: 727Sky
Malhalma tactical is basically a group of highly trained special forces rebels that work directly with or for several advanced military commands of our allies. They also function as advisors trying to train the ragtag street gangs that were recruited to fight Assad into a similar force.

How often do you see various factions shooting wildly with no precision at a target they do not even know where, sometimes just shooting overhead with no inclination as to where they are shooting? The purpose of this group is to beat some battle doctrine into those guys, teach them about forward momentum and gaining new ground as well as holding positions properly.

Essentially these guys are special forces that are boot camping the untrained rebels as best they can. Likely from Jordan, Bahrain, Israel and possibly Egypt as they do not typically speak English as a native tongue. I doubt any are Saudi, as their guys can barely succeed against the mountain warriors who fight them in sandals!

This popped up recently. Who are these guys?

كودي
#AQ-linked Guardians of Religion Organization (Hurras al-Din) on ribat in Greater #Idlib

Actually if you click on the link and follow the thread, there is a video of an FSA ambush on a regime affiliated militia attempting to infiltrate in their own ambush. Bodies going flying when the FSA struck their group with an ATGM.

Lately there has been much change in the dynamics of the local factions zone of influence. HTS has been encroaching and gaining control in places of other factions. I seen tanks moving around yesterday. Its gearing up for something. I Think Turkey is doing that bait and switch with Rojava side, and going to utilize this as a pretext to strike in Idlib.

Rojava Resistance
‏ @RojavaCudi
18h18 hours ago

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham captured a Turkish military vehicle from Suqur al-Sham near Maar Shurin.
#Idlib #HTS #NLF #FSA