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Is it finally ok to look at demographics of crime stats

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posted on Aug, 20 2018 @ 11:49 PM
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Illegally entering any country is the gateway crime to more crime.

Don’t do crime kids

The more you know.....




posted on Aug, 20 2018 @ 11:49 PM
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a reply to: drewlander

How is that different than statistics? It was presented as statistics across different demographics? Honest question.

it helped Trump but there is the probability that they thought it would make Trump voters think it was useless to vote

Not trying to rebuke the OP, as I actually agree with where I think he is going. But many statistics are manipulated to get the desired outcome by a particular organization.

Please forgive any ignorance in this.

edit...as I think about this, I believe I am beginning to understand.


edit on 21-8-2018 by liveandlearn because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 20 2018 @ 11:50 PM
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Any group tied to a voting block, bringing up a negative stat is evil. Silencing the facts means you are woke and tolerant.

It’s all about power



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 12:22 AM
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originally posted by: liveandlearn
a reply to: drewlander

How is that different than statistics? It was presented as statistics across different demographics? Honest question.

it helped Trump but there is the probability that they thought it would make Trump voters think it was useless to vote

Not trying to rebuke the OP, as I actually agree with where I think he is going. But many statistics are manipulated to get the desired outcome by a particular organization.

Please forgive any ignorance in this.

edit...as I think about this, I believe I am beginning to understand.



That poster doesn't understand statistics vs. probability. Statistics uses data collected to come to conclusions.
Probability uses statistics to project conclusions.
Neither is an exact science. But having data on hand is a more valuable tool, than assuming. Which is what probability does.
With all that said, depending on the model, statistics can paint a different picture of the demographic than the truth.

Let's say I had two different questionnaires I have circulated. One asked:
Have you stopped beating your husband?
The other:
Have you ever beat your husband?

That is why there is distrust of stats. And why probability is worse.



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 01:15 AM
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originally posted by: randomtangentsrme

originally posted by: liveandlearn
a reply to: drewlander

How is that different than statistics? It was presented as statistics across different demographics? Honest question.

it helped Trump but there is the probability that they thought it would make Trump voters think it was useless to vote

Not trying to rebuke the OP, as I actually agree with where I think he is going. But many statistics are manipulated to get the desired outcome by a particular organization.

Please forgive any ignorance in this.

edit...as I think about this, I believe I am beginning to understand.



That poster doesn't understand statistics vs. probability. Statistics uses data collected to come to conclusions.
Probability uses statistics to project conclusions.
Neither is an exact science. But having data on hand is a more valuable tool, than assuming. Which is what probability does.
With all that said, depending on the model, statistics can paint a different picture of the demographic than the truth.

Let's say I had two different questionnaires I have circulated. One asked:
Have you stopped beating your husband?
The other:
Have you ever beat your husband?

That is why there is distrust of stats. And why probability is worse.


During the election cycle when you see the MSM say Hillary Clinton has a 98.6% chance of winning the election, that is not a statistic. It is probability of a future event.

When you see them say a large percent of evangelicals voted for Republicans because of their view on abortion it is a statistic. No one disputed statistics like these because this is based on data that is historically accurate.

Indeed, stats are not always trustworthy. Thank you for substantiating my position that the crazy numbers fed to the masses were wildly inaccurate probability, which I agree was worse.



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 01:37 AM
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a reply to: Grambler

Well written OP. Your followup comments supported your position and further defined the context of the question. And you were relatively non-partisan.


I wasn't aware that this was an issue. Suppressing the inclusion of data because of someone's interpretation of political correctness is insane.

However, those data must be properly integrated and analyzed fairly. And that's the rub: What's fair? "Fair" can be defined many different ways, depending upon one's position.

Remember the phrase popularized by Mark Twain "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

-dex



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 03:55 AM
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originally posted by: Grambler
So one of the arguments I hear routinely on the immigration debate is touting statistics that show that illegal immigrants actually commit less crime than US citizens by proportion.

In other words, as US citizen is more likely to commit certain crimes than an illegal.

I have no problem discussing these stats, and feel they should be looked at. I think it is irrelevant to the question of whether or not we should enforce our border and immigration laws, but its a worth while discussion to have.

However, I cant help but notice that usually it is left leaning or anti trump people that bring up these stats.

Strangely enough, there happens to be a large overlap with the same left leaning people that often say that to bring up stats about the differences in certain demographics committing crimes is a disgustingly racist thing to do.

So I am just seeking some clarification here: can we now all agree that bringing up stats on crimes committed by certain demographics, rather it be legal status, race, sex, gender, etc, does not make a person a bigot?

Is it finally ok to realize that facts and statistics arent prejudice?

Or will the people that say using crime stats on racial demographics is bigoted and racist also condemn the people who use stats about illegals committing less crimes are also bigots against US citizens?


Even if the figures tell us there are more arrests and incarcerations, that may be because of racism and corruption in the police/justice system. Similar to the ratio discrepancy of African-American incarcerations. It doesn't indicate that Caucasians are morally 'better' at all, just that law enforcement targets African-Americans and that their communities are more financially stressed.



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 04:09 AM
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a reply to: Grambler

If the stats are accurate I see no reason as to why the results cannot be discussed, if they show illegal immigrants do commit substantially more crime than other demographics something needs to be done and a discussion needs to he had, regardless of feelings.

The big issue that I see though is getting accurate stats, we are currently in an information war, so in that respect truth is indeed a matter of perspective. One man's truth is anothers lie, reality is confusing no wonder so many people flip out.



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 04:41 AM
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originally posted by: liveandlearn
a reply to: drewlander

How is that different than statistics? It was presented as statistics across different demographics? Honest question.

it helped Trump but there is the probability that they thought it would make Trump voters think it was useless to vote

Not trying to rebuke the OP, as I actually agree with where I think he is going. But many statistics are manipulated to get the desired outcome by a particular organization.

Please forgive any ignorance in this.

edit...as I think about this, I believe I am beginning to understand.



Its more like statistics are used in ways not intended. For example in 2016 we can show illegal citizens committed a large number of federal offenses. Statistically 41.7 percent of federal crimes that year was committed by illegals according to the justice department.

But heres the misleading part 90 percent of crimes are tried at the state and local level. There are no statistics kept on citizens vs non citizens so to make a claim that this proves illegals commit more crimes is false.

The best we can say is a disproportionate number of illegals commit federal crimes. But i think that makes sense since any major felony committed by an illegal will be sent to the federal government because most states dont want to incur the costs.

But i dont think the number should matter in the least. If someone is here commits a crime and shouldn't be here in the first place that's one crime to many. We shouldn't have citizens dying because someone entered the country illegally. Be like someone breaking into your house and then accidentally killing you. It wo hi ld still be tried as murder.



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 08:28 AM
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originally posted by: dragonridr

originally posted by: liveandlearn
a reply to: drewlander

How is that different than statistics? It was presented as statistics across different demographics? Honest question.

it helped Trump but there is the probability that they thought it would make Trump voters think it was useless to vote

Not trying to rebuke the OP, as I actually agree with where I think he is going. But many statistics are manipulated to get the desired outcome by a particular organization.

Please forgive any ignorance in this.

edit...as I think about this, I believe I am beginning to understand.



Its more like statistics are used in ways not intended. For example in 2016 we can show illegal citizens committed a large number of federal offenses. Statistically 41.7 percent of federal crimes that year was committed by illegals according to the justice department.

But heres the misleading part 90 percent of crimes are tried at the state and local level. There are no statistics kept on citizens vs non citizens so to make a claim that this proves illegals commit more crimes is false.

The best we can say is a disproportionate number of illegals commit federal crimes. But i think that makes sense since any major felony committed by an illegal will be sent to the federal government because most states dont want to incur the costs.

But i dont think the number should matter in the least. If someone is here commits a crime and shouldn't be here in the first place that's one crime to many. We shouldn't have citizens dying because someone entered the country illegally. Be like someone breaking into your house and then accidentally killing you. It wo hi ld still be tried as murder.


This is a pretty good explaination. Stats are often cherry-picked to fit someone's narrative and thereby used to shape the mind of less informed individuals. The stat may be correct but it's full context is not disclosed or made apparent, which is misleading.



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 11:01 AM
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a reply to: drewlander
Very true. Stats suit the interpreter. A clear example that fudges the issue. Say in the US 50% commit crimes are committed by US citizens and 50% immigrants What happens when the 50% immigrants get citizenship, a year down the line 100% US citizens commit the crimes. Think on it you will get it.
In Germany now the authorities are trying to keep a lid on revenge attacks on immigrants. So when immigrants commit crimes the authorities love it when they have German citizenship. Because they then can truthfully report that the crime was committed by a German, neglecting ofcourse to tell the public that it was an immigrant just got citizenship.



posted on Aug, 21 2018 @ 04:08 PM
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a reply to: Lumenari

You forgot to cite the source for your quote - a 2014 report on The Hill.

The main primary source does not mention illegal immigrants once. See for yourselves.

Funny that.

The second primary source is dated 2011. That has some pretty interesting data on alien crime in five states.

Enjoy.

edit on 21-8-2018 by Whodathunkdatcheese because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 22 2018 @ 03:04 PM
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originally posted by: Grambler
So one of the arguments I hear routinely on the immigration debate is touting statistics that show that illegal immigrants actually commit less crime than US citizens by proportion.

In other words, as US citizen is more likely to commit certain crimes than an illegal.

I have no problem discussing these stats, and feel they should be looked at. I think it is irrelevant to the question of whether or not we should enforce our border and immigration laws, but its a worth while discussion to have.

However, I cant help but notice that usually it is left leaning or anti trump people that bring up these stats.

Strangely enough, there happens to be a large overlap with the same left leaning people that often say that to bring up stats about the differences in certain demographics committing crimes is a disgustingly racist thing to do.

So I am just seeking some clarification here: can we now all agree that bringing up stats on crimes committed by certain demographics, rather it be legal status, race, sex, gender, etc, does not make a person a bigot?

Is it finally ok to realize that facts and statistics arent prejudice?

Or will the people that say using crime stats on racial demographics is bigoted and racist also condemn the people who use stats about illegals committing less crimes are also bigots against US citizens?




Data is a liberal’s worst enemy.

If we were data driven liberalism would end rapidly or morph dramatically from its current form.



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