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Trump approval rating still rides high after the North Korea summit

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posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 03:10 PM
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We haven’t seen any approval ratings on ATS for a while, so I was looking through some charts this morning and doing some research on the accuracy of the different polling sites and their methodologies. First I’ll post a couple of links that explain how pollsters are rated themselves and how to determine their accuracy.

There are a few things to consider. How long a company has been around is a good indicator of how well they do their job; the longer they’ve been around the higher the chance of being exposed as inaccurate if there is an agenda in the background or simple inadequacy. So with that said, any time you look at polls, if it’s a company with less than a decade or two under their belt, discard them. Next we have to look at who is polled and the way they are polled. In order to be the most accurate a Live Call should be done. There are some who do it online as a questionnaire, some even do it over an app; a live call is the most accurate way to determine that most of the information given is accurate: sex, age and many other factors. More important than that is who is polled -- the most accurate way and what is most commonly accepted is All Adults. For us this would be any person of 18 or older who answers the phone. Some companies will talk to anyone who answers, and others pick and choose who they call, creating a bias. Some companies only call Registered Voters and others Likely Voters, but then we get into the murky waters of what lists are being used and what political lean they have, also creating a bias.

There are a few companies that are quoted a lot, and among them Gallup has been the leader, mostly because they have been doing it since the end of World War II, have always had a low error margin and now have the largest set of metrics of other presidents to compare to. Gallup has a slight right lean, but rated at 0.9% right bias. Combined with their low error margin, their combined error is usually at or under 3%, sometimes going up to 4%. So when you see their numbers, add or subtract 3% and the real value is somewhere in that 6% section.

Pew Research is used too, although they are left leaning by less than 1%. Combined, their error margin is usually right above 4%. FOX is at a bias level comparable to Gallup but more inaccurate so comes in at about 4.5% margin. Survey Monkey, for example, is one of the worst left leaning pollsters as they do all online polling, have an error margin of almost 8% and then a 5% left bias, which gives them a 13% overall margin – meaning they should never be taken seriously. On the right, TCJ is the worst and comparable to Survey Monkey. Rasmussen is improving but they pick who they contact and then do it online; with a right bias their combined margin of error is around 8%, and has gone as high as 12% in the past.

Ratings . Article

Anyways, hope that helps a bit; I learned a lot this morning. Moving on.

Trump has hit a high approval rating for his presidency during the North Korea summit, at 45%, and has not lost much since then despite the immigration protests and the trade war tensions. He is currently at 42% approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating. This is higher than his average approval of 39% for the length of his presidency.

This second number, or disapproval rating, is a more accurate way to determine how a presidency is going. There have been presidents in the past who have not had high approval ratings but their disapproval was not very high either. Trump’s disapproval was at 47% the week he took office, went to 52% the following week and has never gone back under 50% again. For most of the presidency it’s been in the mid to high 50s, peaking at 60% a few times between August and December of last year. He also hit his lowest approval rating in those months, hitting 35% approval a few times.



Now, we can focus even more and look at those who say they Strongly Approve or Disapprove and then we are taking a look at the core support, those who are unwavering regardless of what the President does. From these numbers we can also see that in the 15 months that is being compared, those numbers changed so very slightly they almost don’t make a difference. When Trump took office, of the 42% that approved of him 27% strongly approved and 15% moderately approved. Those 27% are the core group of supporters who will offer support through scandals and wars, and the 15% are less so. In the 15 months since then, the core support only lost 1% that shifted over to moderate support. With the margin of error, this is insignificant.

Equally, those who Strongly Disapprove remained the same. The presidency started with 53% disapproval and of those 41% were unwavering opposition. 15 months later that number still sits at 41%. I imagine very few of those 41% would change their opinion of the president even if he invented the cure for cancer. Moderate disapproval gained 1% from the undecided group, raising disapproval to 54%. Again, insignificant considering the margin.



These are all just facts and statistics, I did not want to inject any opinion into this piece as there really is no room for it when you consider numbers. I will say I was surprised to see that amidst the protests, trade wars and the Twitter wars with a few large manufacturers, the President’s rating did not drop into the high 30s and has only dropped a handful of points since the summit. This, however, only shows how strong his core support is; I don’t think he will ever lose those 1 out of 4 people, but it will also be almost impossible for him to sway those 4 out of 10. He would have to do something truly selfless and spectacular.

Links to the Gallup metrics below plus a couple of extra links at the end for those interested, such as going into the comparisons with other presidents, which I did not go into at all. Thank you all for reading.

Weekly . Statistics . Strongly . Commentary . Comparison


edit on 8-7-2018 by Kharron because: typo




posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 03:19 PM
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It is fun to look at polls, but as we learned during the prior election cycle they are ultimately meaningless. I look at them more like power ratings in sports. They don’t mean crap when the game is actually being played.



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 03:23 PM
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a reply to: Kharron

All that tells me is that The President can have a summit, totally lie about what was accomplished, and his sheep will drink the kool-aid.

They won't ask why The President lies to them. And they don't care obviously.

That's fine, but you guys need to man up and accept you have become the sheep you used to rail against. LOL!



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 03:31 PM
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originally posted by: Metallicus
It is fun to look at polls, but as we learned during the prior election cycle they are ultimately meaningless. I look at them more like power ratings in sports. They don’t mean crap when the game is actually being played.


That and they are easily used to manipulate those who can't think for themselves or are just hive mind like so that they follow the herd.



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 03:33 PM
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a reply to: MiddleInsite

Your post was so insightful. It has really helped me in my choice for president in 2020. Trump it is!!! Thanks for helping me make that very tough decision. How about them SCOTUS appointments?!



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 03:40 PM
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originally posted by: Metallicus
It is fun to look at polls, but as we learned during the prior election cycle they are ultimately meaningless. I look at them more like power ratings in sports. They don’t mean crap when the game is actually being played.


Agreed, polls should not be used to make predictions but they are good for analysis, such as what I closed the post with. The most interesting part for me, out of the post, is the breakdown of the strong support and the strong opposition. Whether someone likes polls or not, those numbers are accurate with a small variance.

And since I used Gallup, it gives us an accurate analysis of what average Americans would do, not just selected voters. So in an event of something big, let's say an impeachment hypothetically, one out of four Americans, not likely voters, Americans would probably take to the street or take up arms. Through many a scandal and many iffy policies those 26% remain on his side. That to me means an impeachment may end up in civil war.

On the other side, the 41% that hasn't changed their mind AT ALL, means that they could escalate things if nothing starts changing. Those 41% are the ones that are in the streets protesting ICE. The moderate support on either side doesn't do those things... yet. And then there are the independents or the undecideds that make up the middle, who are also not protesting but are also not quite ok with what is going on.

So, whether we like polls or not, we can pretty accurately get a snapshot of how the country breaks down.

Thanks for reading.
edit on 8-7-2018 by Kharron because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 04:30 PM
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a reply to: Metallicus


but as we learned during the prior election cycle they are ultimately meaningless.

Actually we learned that what the candidates were saying about the polls was ultimately meaningless
If one tracked the polls themselves it was a lot different than what was stated



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 04:34 PM
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Here is one that I have followed since way back when

Rasmussen

Scroll to the bottom for a graph representing the comparison between Obama and Trump during the same time period in their respective terms




posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 05:13 PM
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a reply to: Kharron

Polls are meaningless and can be constructed any which way...depending on who created it.

Another member replied same above..



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 06:07 PM
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originally posted by: Gothmog
Here is one that I have followed since way back when

Rasmussen

Scroll to the bottom for a graph representing the comparison between Obama and Trump during the same time period in their respective terms



Rasmussen is mentioned in the OP. Just so you know bud.



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 06:09 PM
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a reply to: Kharron

Wait until prices start to go up, this trade war is just getting started. You will see his approval dropping....Also by the end of the Muller investigation....Muller said this fall it will be done. Be glad when he is!!




edit on 8-7-2018 by kurthall because: fix



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 06:11 PM
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a reply to: Wide-Eyes

I apologize for linking to a chart that was already posted
Or , does "mention" account for being a link to a chart ?
The name IS NOT Bud



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 06:13 PM
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Wtf wouldi it dip after the summit??



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 06:16 PM
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Polls show trends; they don't predict the future.



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 06:32 PM
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originally posted by: Gothmog
a reply to: Wide-Eyes

I apologize for linking to a chart that was already posted
Or , does "mention" account for being a link to a chart ?
The name IS NOT Bud


Alright big guy, chill your beans. I thought you had missed it was all.

Have a beer on me



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 06:33 PM
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originally posted by: Gryphon66
Polls show trends; they don't predict the future.

Yep , but they do go by the Laws of Probability and Statistics , and Ratio and Proportions .

Let me fix up that statement as well
Polls show trends; they don't ALWAYS predict the future

Better , as you were stating never...



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 06:34 PM
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originally posted by: Wide-Eyes

originally posted by: Gothmog
a reply to: Wide-Eyes

I apologize for linking to a chart that was already posted
Or , does "mention" account for being a link to a chart ?
The name IS NOT Bud


Alright big guy, chill your beans. I thought you had missed it was all.

Have a beer on me

That I would do...
I shouldnt have taken offense , yet here in the Southern US , calling someone bud happens right before the person called bud "lights into someone"

A semi- derogatory term.

edit on 7/8/18 by Gothmog because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 07:04 PM
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originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: Wide-Eyes

originally posted by: Gothmog
a reply to: Wide-Eyes

I apologize for linking to a chart that was already posted
Or , does "mention" account for being a link to a chart ?
The name IS NOT Bud


Alright big guy, chill your beans. I thought you had missed it was all.

Have a beer on me

That I would do...
I shouldnt have taken offense , yet here in the Southern US , calling someone bud happens right before the person called bud "lights into someone"

A semi- derogatory term.


Well we learn something new every day. Sorry about that.

Good for future reference



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 08:40 PM
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a reply to: Gothmog

Like my daddy used to say, you'd argue with a sign-post, bud.



EDIT: You're right by the way. Dangit.
edit on 8-7-2018 by Gryphon66 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 8 2018 @ 09:12 PM
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originally posted by: Gryphon66
a reply to: Gothmog

Like my daddy used to say, you'd argue with a sign-post, bud.



EDIT: You're right by the way. Dangit.

Never say never.
Ever



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